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ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has named the Philadelphia Eagles as the top contenders to win Super Bowl LX, but several other teams are closely trailing in terms of their skill and chances to lift the Lombardi Trophy. This model, which launched with the 2025 NFL season, gives the Eagles a 12% likelihood of winning, marking the lowest odds for any preseason favorite since ESPN began preseason predictions in 2015.
FPI’s preseason rating primarily combines betting market win totals with team schedules, while also considering factors like the quality of backup quarterbacks and special teams, including kickers. By running thousands of simulated seasons using these ratings, the model forms its predictions. The ratings update throughout the season based on offensive, defensive, and special teams’ performances, as well as home-field advantage and rest periods.
The NFL’s Top Tier Teams
In 2025, the Eagles lead a group of top-tier teams including the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, and Bills. These teams are closely matched, separated by no more than one point on the FPI scale in a neutral setting. However, there’s a significant drop-off after the Bills, with the Commanders ranking sixth. Notably, the best teams tend to rely on strong offenses rather than just defense, debunking the old saying that "defense wins championships." The Eagles combine an elite offense with the best defense, featuring key players such as linebacker Zack Baun, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and cornerbacks Quy Nhon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean. Each of the top five teams holds at least an 8% chance of securing the Super Bowl, collectively accounting for a 50% chance the champion will come from this group.
| Rank | Team | Super Bowl Win Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eagles | 12% |
| 2 | Chiefs | 11% |
| 3 | Bills | 10% |
| 4 | Ravens | 9% |
| 5 | Lions | 8% |
| 6 | Commanders | 5% |
| 7 | Rams | 5% |
| 8 | Chargers | 4% |
| 9 | Bengals | 4% |
| 10 | 49ers | 4% |
Possible Super Bowl Matchups
The most probable Super Bowl matchup is a repeat of recent showdowns between the Eagles and Chiefs, holding a 4% chance, followed by Eagles facing the Ravens or Bills also at 4%. Other combinations include Lions versus Bills or Chiefs (3%), Rams vs. Chiefs (2%), and 49ers vs. Chiefs (2%). NFC teams like the Eagles and Lions frequently appear in these projections, while AFC contenders are dominated by the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens.
NFC North Overview
All NFC North teams rank in the upper half of the FPI, led by Detroit at No. 4, followed by Green Bay (8th), Minnesota (15th), and Chicago (16th). Minnesota’s lower ranking reflects their strong defensive performance last season but weaker offense and uncertainty surrounding their young quarterback JJ McCarthy, who missed much of his rookie year. The Bears, with a new head coach and talent upgrades including quarterback Caleb Williams, are expected to improve. Detroit leads the division with a 41% chance to win, but the Packers and Bears have solid chances too.
NFC West Outlook
The Rams are rated as the premiere NFC West team, but the 49ers have a slight edge to win the division, partly due to an easier schedule that includes matchups against weaker divisions and teams that struggled last season. The model also believes the 49ers will rebound strongly after a disappointing 6-11 season, helped by market optimism that injuries hampered their 2024 performance.
AFC East Prospects
Buffalo remains the clear favorite in the AFC East with a positive FPI rating and a 65% chance to win the division, far ahead of the other teams. While uncertainties in football mean there’s always a chance for an upset, Buffalo is well-positioned to claim the division title again.
Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances
Despite a tough 2024 season, the Bengals are expected to return to the playoffs thanks to improvements on defense and solid quarterback play by Joe Burrow, who had a career-best season last year. They face some defensive uncertainty due to a coordinator change but still have a 60% chance to reach the postseason, ranking as the fourth-best AFC playoff hope.
Bottom of the Rankings and Draft Picks
The New Orleans Saints rank last among NFL teams due to quarterback retirements that leave them relying on unproven rookies. However, the NFC South’s general weakness boosts their win chances slightly. As a result, the Saints have the fourth-best odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Cleveland Browns lead the chances to get the No. 1 draft pick in 2026, largely because of a difficult schedule and an uncertain quarterback situation including Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders. The Giants, Titans, Saints, and Jets also have notable chances to land top draft positions.
| Rank | Team | No. 1 Pick Chance | Top 5 Pick Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Browns | 13% | 46% |
| 2 | Giants | 12% | 43% |
| 3 | Titans | 11% | 42% |
| 4 | Saints | 10% | 39% |
| 5 | Jets | 10% | 40% |
Fan Take: NFL fans should watch closely as this year’s power balance features both strong favorites and plenty of competitive parity, signaling an exciting and unpredictable season ahead. The nuanced predictions capture not just team strength but also schedule challenges and individual player impacts, offering fans deeper insight into what could shape the 2025 season.
