Week 4 brings the last full 16-game NFL slate before byes begin in Week 5. The NFL will visit London for the first time this season as the Colts (favored by 3.5) face the Commanders. Sunday’s schedule features only two divisional games — Patriots at Bills (Buffalo -7) and Chiefs at Raiders (Las Vegas +4.5) — while Monday’s matchup is a divisional tilt as well: the Saints are 2.5-point favorites over the Falcons, coinciding with the 20th anniversary of New Orleans’ 2006 “Domecoming.”
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If you like wagering on heavy favorites, two spots stand out in Week 4: the Ravens are massive 11.5-point favorites against the winless Titans, and the Vikings are 10-point favorites over 0-3 Miami. SportsLine’s advanced computer model — which runs 10,000 simulations per game — has produced strong returns for bettors, claiming more than $7,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated NFL picks since it launched. The model is coming into Week 4 of the 2026 season on a 54-43 run with top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
The model has locked in recommendations for every Week 4 matchup. One of its stronger calls is the Giants (+2.5, total 44.5) to cover against the Cardinals in the Sunday 1 p.m. ET window. Arizona’s Week 1 victory over the Chargers looks less impressive in hindsight, the Cardinals have surrendered 31+ points in consecutive losses, and they’re just 5-9 ATS following a loss since last year. New York, meanwhile, controls the clock on offense and ranks first in starting field position on defense — the model projects New York to cover in over half of simulations and sees the Over hitting about 56% of the time.
Another notable projection: the Seahawks (-7, total 42.5) are expected to cover against the Chargers. Though L.A. forced five turnovers against Buffalo recently, the Chargers still lost and have dropped six straight games (dating back to last season), scoring 17 or fewer in each defeat. Seattle’s 12-game win streak ended after a long road trip, but they return home — where they haven’t lost in a year — and the model forecasts Seattle to cover in nearly 60% of simulations, with the Over clearing 60% likelihood. The model has also identified five teams it believes will win by double digits, which could be useful if you’re considering alternate lines.
For full game-by-game picks, spread covers and the model’s projections, visit SportsLine to see every Week 4 selection and the latest odds, lines, and scores.
Fan Take: This Week 4 snapshot matters because it highlights shifting team strengths and where analytic models see value before injuries and byes thin the slate. For fans and bettors alike, these projections can shape lineup decisions and betting strategies as we get deeper into the season.
Source: www.cbssports.com
