I had penciled the Week 4 meeting between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on my calendar as a toss-up heading into the 2026 season, but after three weeks the matchup no longer feels evenly matched.
New England desperately needs this game to reset a season that’s trending downward for the defending AFC champions. For Buffalo, watching the Patriots stumble is almost poetic — for two decades New England has repeatedly stood in the way of Bills’ title hopes, and even when the Patriots were expected to be rebuilding last year, Buffalo couldn’t capitalize. This year, momentum appears to be swinging toward the Bills: the Patriots are plagued by self-inflicted problems, the Miami Dolphins look woefully thin on talent, and the New York Jets remain an unpredictable mess.
Where to watch Patriots vs. Bills
– Date: Sunday, Oct. 4 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
– Location: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
– TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
– Follow: CBS Sports App
– Odds: Bills -7, O/U 48.5 (DraftKings)
Matchup overview
The Patriots (1-2) arrive with plenty to fix. Their lone win came against the Pittsburgh Steelers but even that game exposed flaws; they were demolished 35-6 by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, during which QB Drake Maye threw two picks and fumbled twice (losing one). Maye now leads the league with six interceptions and hasn’t resembled the MVP runner-up from last season.
Buffalo is undefeated at 3-0, though they showed vulnerability in Week 3 by coughing the ball up five times — three lost fumbles and two interceptions — yet still beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16. That win illustrated a hallmark of elite teams: finding ways to win despite mistakes.
This rivalry is historic — New England still leads the all-time series, 79-51-1.
Key storylines
– Drake Maye situation: Rumors surfaced this week about friction between Maye and coach Mike Vrabel, though both parties quickly denied any rift. Vrabel has publicly said Maye was a big reason he took the job in New England. There are also lingering questions about Maye’s shoulder; Vrabel downplayed any issue, Maye offered noncommittal answers but insisted the shoulder isn’t why he’s struggled. Yet the Wednesday injury report listed Maye as a full participant with a right shoulder injury, adding confusion about whether the injury has affected his play.
– Turning-point potential: Last season the Patriots’ loss to the Raiders early on seemed to foreshadow trouble, but a midseason victory over Buffalo (23-20 in Week 5) became a catalyst for New England’s turnaround. Could a similar swing happen this year?
– Bills’ ground attack: Buffalo’s rushing attack has been strong — through three games they rank fourth with 465 yards and lead the league with eight rushing touchdowns. New England’s run defense is average, so if Buffalo establishes the run early they could control the game. The Pats haven’t shown they can overcome early miscues consistently this season, making a fast Buffalo start even more important.
Prediction
Everything points to the Bills taking this one. Divisional games can be unpredictable, and a Patriots upset would be a gutsy, low-odds pick — but the evidence so far paints New England as a team searching for identity while Buffalo looks like a polished, multi-dimensional contender. The Bills are again among the Super Bowl favorites (though perhaps their championship window is beginning to narrow), and they appear built to win in several ways.
Pick: Bills
Fan Take: This game matters because it could set the tone for the AFC East — a Buffalo victory would reinforce their status as the division’s frontrunner, while a Patriots upset would inject life into a once-promising New England rebuild. Beyond standings, the matchup also offers an early barometer for Drake Maye’s development and the Bills’ ability to sustain a legitimate Super Bowl window.
Source: www.cbssports.com
