Preseason Fitness May Impact Man United’s Premier League Performance

Once again, Manchester United finds itself in a crisis. The performance of manager Michael Carrick is under intense scrutiny after a string of poor results and a reported clash with captain Bruno Fernandes. Following three losses—4-1 against Como, 3-0 to AFC Bournemouth, and 2-0 to Chelsea—the conversation about the club’s future intensified. However, an exhilarating 3-2 comeback win against Roma in the Champions League offered a brief reprieve.

Discussions have prominently featured the team’s fitness levels, which have been a consistent concern throughout the season. Social media has highlighted statistics showing United lingering at the bottom of the Premier League in various running metrics, including total distance covered and sprinting efforts.

This issue became apparent from the outset of the season, when new recruit Youri Tielemans noted in an interview that the squad’s preseason training mainly focused on ball skills rather than running. This lack of preparation was starkly evident in their opening loss to newly promoted Hull City.

Similarly, Tottenham Hotspur is grappling with its own challenges. Despite recently securing three consecutive wins, the team struggled before the international break, with manager Roberto De Zerbi admitting a lack of “physical condition” and pledging to address this during the downtime.

While fitness and running stats don’t guarantee victories, it raises the question: how easily can these issues be remedied for both clubs? And specifically, how serious is Manchester United’s predicament given their alarming performance metrics?

The Numbers Are Concerning

It’s essential to understand that running statistics are contextual and don’t necessarily correlate with success; they need to be viewed alongside a team’s tactical setup and style of play.

Nonetheless, the findings from Gradient Sports present a troubling picture.

United ranks poorly across all running metrics when compared with other Premier League teams, occupying the last spot for average maximum speed. The disparity between United and the team that has run the most distance is a staggering 44.6 km, while they trail the top sprinters by 5.34km.

Spurs, while not outstanding, are largely average, though their 16th position in distance covered is likely a source of frustration for De Zerbi, who heavily relies on analytics in his coaching.

It’s crucial to emphasize that running more doesn’t inherently mean winning more. For example, the team with the highest distance covered this season so far, Fulham, sits 15th in the league, while the most frequent sprinters, Ipswich Town, are in 14th place.

Thus, understanding the tactical approach of these teams is vital, as it influences the volume and nature of their running.

“Physical preparation depends on your game model,” explains Dave Carolan, a seasoned sports science expert in the Premier League and Football League. “How you express your tactics physically shapes your training regimen.”

Teams that press high and pursue the ball are likely to log more kilometers, while those that sit back and counterattack might sprint more frequently. Conversely, teams dominating ball possession usually run and sprint less compared to their counterparts.

As of the first nine weeks of the Premier League, clubs like Newcastle United, Bournemouth, and Brentford have excelled in sprinting, largely due to their high-pressing and aggressive styles. Fulham, known for their rapid attacking play, has registered the highest overall running metrics.

All these patterns align logically with their playing styles.

How to Characterize Manchester United and Spurs?

Manchester United has maintained an average possession rate of 55% in the nine league matches thus far, a slight increase from last season’s 51.6%. However, this figure comes from a limited sample where they’ve faced teams that generally control less of the ball, like Hull City at 33.2% and Ipswich Town at 45.5%.

Under Carrick, the team aims to control possession, yet they also want to leverage the pace of forwards like Bryan Mbeumo and Marcus Rashford to launch quick attacks.

Their PPDA (passes allowed before a defensive action) is 12.8, reflecting a middle-of-the-pack average in the league, complemented by 56 high turnovers, ranking them 11th. Essentially, they are performing at a mediocre level across various pressing metrics.

This situation has seemingly caused unease among some players; Fernandes notably expressed his frustrations after the 4-1 loss to Como, stating, “We started poorly again, conceding early. We lacked pressure on the ball and good movement without it. When you give too much possession to teams, they gain confidence. It’s a tactical choice to not press man-to-man.”

As a result, he was sidelined in the match against Bournemouth.

He had a point. United is failing to cover enough ground and has not committed adequately to pressing, while their possession does not justify their minimal sprinting distance and overall low running metrics.

Conversely, Spurs are undeniably a high-possession and high-pressing team. Their coach De Zerbi has always favored this style. While he stepped in last season to stave off relegation, his preferred tactical approach is beginning to take shape this year.

Spurs’ average possession stands at an impressive 63.2%, just behind Manchester City at 64.5%, while they have the league’s lowest PPDA (8.5) and rank second in high turnovers (88). Given their proactive playstyle, one would expect them to excel in running stats, especially for sprints, yet they remain average at best.

If you watch several of Spurs’ early fixtures this season, you’ll notice a trend. They started most games aggressively, pressing their opponents for an early goal, but often waned physically, leading to mistakes and losses—most notably in defeats to Aston Villa (3-2) and Newcastle United (2-0). This pattern is likely what De Zerbi referred to when he called out his team’s fitness level.

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Leboeuf: I enjoy Tottenham’s style of play under De Zerbi

Is Improvement Possible?

While advocating for a high-energy playing style is one thing, the real question is: Are the players physically capable of executing it?

Multiple sources confirmed to ESPN that Manchester United and Spurs were among a handful of Premier League clubs that neglected dedicated conditioning work over the summer. Tielemans substantiated this regarding United in August, while De Zerbi acknowledged Tottenham’s physical shortcomings just four games into the season.

The complexity arises because recovering from a fitness deficit during the season is challenging, particularly for teams with busy schedules.

“Changing your physical condition mid-season is inherently difficult—especially in the Premier League, the most physically demanding league globally,” offers Carolan. “These squads, filled with international players, have packed schedules with European matches, limiting opportunities for intensive physical training.”

At the elite level, physical preparation begins before the preseason; it typically occurs during the offseason when players are away from the club and often given running programs to ensure they report fit.

“Traditionally, we use the offseason to build foundational strength, endurance, speed, power, and repeatable sprinting abilities. This core aerobic work is done intensely,” Carolan explains. “Then preseason builds upon that. Physically, you can elevate a player from a 5 to an 8, but not from a 3 to an 8.”

Experts suggest players can improve approximately 20% through preseason training, but achieving more is unrealistic. Arriving unprepared can hinder an entire season.

“If players skip offseason conditioning, you probably can’t reach your desired fitness level,” Carolan concurs. “And if preseason is disrupted or ineffective, it can lead to disastrous outcomes.”

This is particularly pertinent for United, whose busy schedule due to their Champions League participation further complicates the matter. Where will Carrick—or his future successor—find the time to integrate rigorous conditioning into their regular routine?

Equally, it raises the question of whether the players have the capacity to improve. Midfielders Tielemans, Kobbie Mainoo, and Andrey Santos rank among the least athletic in the league, while defenders Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martínez also fall short in sprinting and high-speed running metrics.

In short, this is an unathletic squad, so how much can they realistically improve, even under optimal circumstances?

Tottenham, however, holds an advantage for improvement. With no midweek games to contend with, they can embed additional conditioning workouts into their schedules. Their squad also possesses athletes like Sandro Tonali, Mohammed Kudus, and Sávio who could provide substantial physical contributions if harnessed properly.

De Zerbi hinted that he utilized the international break in October to tackle some conditioning issues since a significant portion of his players weren’t away on duty. Yet they have a long journey ahead.

The extended FIFA World Cup, running until mid-July, plays into their challenges, though this isn’t an excuse—other elite clubs faced the same issue, with Spurs’ total minutes from the tournament trailing behind teams like Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, and Manchester City, all of which are in solid physical form.

More concerning was Spurs’ choice for preseason tours, which took them halfway across the world to Australia and New Zealand, sacrificing crucial conditioning time for extensive travel. Hence, their rough start to the season, which included a disappointing 3-0 loss to Brentford.

For Tottenham, there are signs of potential improvement, and they seem to be turning a corner. However, for Manchester United, who clocked only 2,533 minutes in World Cup play, the challenge remains to adjust over the next six months, or they may find themselves genuinely threatened by relegation.