PARIS – Due to all the domination over the past few years, Alina Sabalenka and Iga Swaitek never played in the Grand Slam finals – and this trend continues as they face off in the semi-finals at the French Open on Thursday.
The two have played 12 times, with Swiatek leading 8-4 overall and 5-1 with Clay. However, Sabalenka won the recent conference and has been slightly better this spring, winning in Madrid and reaching the final in Stuttgart.
By comparison, four-time French Open Champion Swiatek was in the semi-finals in Madrid, but lost early in Stuttgart and Rome. She fell out of the top four in the process. This explains why the two can meet before the final.
Here’s how each woman wins in the semi-finals:
Whhy Sabalanka Wal Beat Swilet
At first, she is not the world. Sabalenka reached the semi-finals without dropping the set. The victory over Zheng was a huge boost after the Olympic champion defeated her in Rome last month. With Swiatek not at the devastating best so far this year, Sabalenka will likely be taking part in the match as a favorite.
Sabalenka’s serve, once weak, has now become a great force. The Belarusian thunders 25 aces in the last five matches and asks for many of Swiatek’s returns. With her own return, Sabalenka is so close to the baseline and often stands within it, so she is an ongoing work this year, putting great pressure on Swiatek’s serve, which remains vulnerable, especially in the advertising courts.
Additionally, Sabalenka is absolutely desperate to add Roland Garros’ crown to two Australian openings and one US opening titles. After looking a little further away in her first match, she showed typical determination and quality to make Zheng better, and that motivation would drive her to make the final.
Why Swickek Wil
Her record starts. Swiatek’s numbers at Roland Garros are ridiculous. She’s 40-2 here now. Only Rafael Nadal had to score 40 wins faster and one less game to do so. Swiatek won four times here and was undefeated in 26 matches in the tournament. He won 29 consecutive wins between 1979 and 1981, after Chris Evert. If Swiatek wins the title, she will be the first woman to win the title for the fourth year in a row.
This was not a great year for Swiatek by her own strict standards, but she was still one point since reaching the Australian Open Finals. And in Clay, she is still the best player in the world. Her victory over Elena Ribakina in the fourth round, especially the way she did it, coming from a 6-1, 2-0 down could prove to be a turning point for her this year. It wasn’t her best year, but no one knows as well how to produce her best tennis on this surface if necessary.
Her 5-1 head-to-rate record against Sabalenka helps her to settle down and has the luxury of knowing that if she does her best she will almost certainly win.
Who will win?
This match has the same feeling as the year Nadal was fighting for top form coming to Paris, but found it in time to win again (though Djokovic has made him better a few times). If Swiatek plays her the best, she wins. Sabalenka was not perfect even in clay. The way Swiatek adjusted her return position against Elena Rybakina suggests she is rediscovering her problem-solving abilities. This is Clay, the domain of Swiatek, and she can win tight matches.
