The first French Open Championship will be crowned on Saturday. Will it be number one Alina Sabalenka or second Coco Goff? Sabalenka has three Grand Slam titles, while Gauff has one, but he has not previously won the Roland Garros.
Our experts place importance on how each one can separate their victory.
What can Gauff do to defeat Sabalenka?
Rennae Stubbs: Gauff should provide 60% or more first service. Or she struggles to hold the serve consistently. If she can do it and maintain the pressure on the scoreboard, she can win. Her speed in court means she can run enough balls to highlight Sabalenka to an error, but Gauff can’t serve her badly.
Simon Cambers: Gauff has a game that bothers Sabalenka. That’s the most important thing mentally. The backhand to the backhand is very important. If Gauff can get most of the meetings on her terms, she will have the opportunity to win most baseline contests. However, as Sabalenka hits the second serve, she has to offer a high percentage of the first serve, unless Gauff can get it out of the hit zone.
Her tenacity is important. Throughout the tournament, Goff has shown great mental strength to get out of difficult situations, and the power of the Sabalenka game means that she is sometimes under pressure.
D’Arcy Maine: In the end, Gouf played the best and most complete game of the tournament on Thursday, not only her opponent, but also about 15,000 fans in the stands. She proved how mentally tough and composed she could be, even at her biggest moments. She should feel more confident than ever after her decisive victory at Lloyds Boisson.
Needless to say, she was beaten Sabalenka in the major finals and was in this position at Roland Garros. If she can bring all of that self-belief, experience and emotional maturity, in addition to her strong serving outings and reporting and defense of her trademark courts, then she feels that the second slam title is within reach.
Bill Connelly: This is a very strange series, with both players creating long-term advantages over the others, and no momentum shifting back and forth. Gauff serves don’t work. Sabalenka dominates with serves in one match and leaves the door open with the second serve in the next match.
Honestly, this is the worst and most obvious advice in the world, but Gauff’s title odds increase significantly as she simply lands her serve. She’s 5-2 against Sabalenka when she’s hitting more than 55% of her first serve. When she doesn’t hit that mark, she’s 0-3. So let’s start there. She will probably find an opportunity to break Sabalenka, but only if her serve isn’t digging her into a hole too big.
Tom Hamilton: Consistency. Gauff can’t afford to serve and accurately slumps during these matches. So she has to put her legs all the way down. As Sabalenka showed against Swiatek, she has the means to find another level at the end of the match. So Gauff really has to accomplish this in two.
As D’Arcy says, she’s already learning to deal with the partisan crowd, but I think this will see Chattorier’s faithful being split between the two. Gauff has played the major finals for Roland Garros and leads that disappointment to Saturday’s game. She simply can’t let Sabalenka get the footing.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Gouf?
Stubbs: Sabalenka should take advantage of the second serve when he presses Gauff’s forehand when he can. She also needs to serve well. If she doesn’t work, Gauff will earn longer and more physical points. Sabalenka can’t be overwhelmed, but shorten the points and shorten them, and don’t let Gouf shatter her physically and mentally.
Camber: Sabalenka believes that if she does her best, she will win. This is based on her form and how she played, as well as her past performance, even at a level of 5-5 in previous meetings. She needs to serve well, but every time she misses her first serve, it becomes the whole serve of Gouf.
There is little margin of error in the Sabalenka game, but when she needs her in her semi-final victory over Iga Swiatek, she can hold it down and play with more spin and safety. Gouf works brilliantly, but Sabalenka has a great touch, so as the meeting deepens, she has options.
main: Do you play the way she did in the decision set against Swiatek? It’s hard to think that if she does, everyone can stop her. But as Simon said, Sabalenka and Gouf have direct records.
In addition to boosting confidence in that victory, Sabalenka won the recent conference 6-3, 7-6 (3) in the final in Madrid last month, Sabalenka gives some blueprints of what it takes to win at Clay on Saturday. Just like what she did to Swiecsk on Thursday, Sabalenka stepped into the gas, dictating the pace, making Gov uncomfortable from the start. Sabalenka did so while Gouf was leveling her.
And that’s exactly what Sabalenka did throughout the two weeks of Paris – she simply keeps finding ways to win, and her game seems to be improving in every match she plays. If she can focus on the match at hand rather than the enormity of the moment, then the trophy is her to win.
Connelly: I played these two three times last year. She scored 13 (76%) of 17 points (76%) when Gauff beat Sabalenka in a straight set by Riyadh. She took 17 of 31 (55%) when Sabalenka scored three setters at Uhan. And in Madrid, in his only meeting with Clay in the last four years, Sabalenka has scored 13 points (54%) of 24 points.
If Sabalenka can avoid pushing or making mistakes in the face of Gauff’s speed and defense, and at least splitting those longer points, then close out the big potential means of Gauff’s success, and force her to force the force of force at shorter points. It leaned very well in courtesy of Sabalenka.
Hamilton: She needs to stick to what she’s working for so far. She has a shot variety to bring Goff into trouble, and she punishes any airway second serve. If she finds the level she went to in the third set against Swiatek, the planetary players can’t deal with it. Sabalenka will not be even slightly embarrassed by this opportunity, and will be sure to win. She has appeared in Roland Garros in peace over the past two weeks, quickly diverting pressure elsewhere. That quiet confidence is ominous and you feel she’s a favorite if she finds a swiatek type level of controlled aggression.
Who will win?
Stubbs: A little, that is A littlefrom Sabalenka to Sabalenka in three sets.
Camber: Sabalenka feels she needs to be considered one of the greatest of all time to win this, and that’s the extra motivation she needs to get past the line. But most of all, although she has few holes in the game, Gauff has problems with her serve and forehand, both of which can break under pressure.
In a way, Goff may feel that there is nothing to lose. Two sets of Sabalenka.
main: 3 sets of Sabalenka. I chose Gauff at the start of the tournament, but Sabalenka’s close range masterclass against Swiatek rethinks this. Sabalenka’s victory feels almost inevitable as she saw her play at a very high level against the three-time defending champions and knew how much she wanted to win a major on the hard court and revenge in the 2023 US Open Finals.
Connelly: The 3-setter is no surprise at all, with how the series changes momentum. And when I’m in doubt, I’m going with a better overall player. Sabalenka is 40-6 years old this year, reaching five of her final six slams, beating the Queen of Roland Garros in the semi-finals. Goff is great in the semi-finals and gives herself a solid chance if she lands her serve, but Sabalenka is the best player in the world and she isn’t always the case. win Her final, we say she will take this.
Hamilton: Well, everyone went with Sabalenka. On the contrary, it is the time of Gouf. I remember sitting at her post-match press conference after she lost her Swiatek title in 2022. She was devastated, but there was also this quiet resolve to not let it slip if she got another chance. Lime and Reason say this is Sabalenka’s title, but the unquantified quality of Gauff’s quiet resolve will shake this title in her favor. She simply has to land the first serve and don’t let Sabalenka take the footing. If she’s flying on the block, that’s the title of Gauff.
