Just three weeks ago, Coco Gauff and Carlos Alcaraz crowned the French Open Championship.
Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion of the All England Club. Can he be the fifth man in an era opened to achieve 3 peats at Wimbledon? Or will Jannik Sinner revenges his French Open Final Loss on Alcaraz to win his first Grand Slam title in Grass?
Meanwhile, Gauff has now won two major titles, but has not passed the fourth round at Wimbledon. And the field of women is widespread – the past eight Wimbledon titles have been won by different women.
Will Aryna Sabalenka win her first Wimbledon title? Or will Iga Swiatek bounce back to claim a crown from a difficult year?
And what about Novak Djokovic? Will he somehow win the record 25th Grand Slam title?
Our experts are considering these pressing questions and more.
How will Gauff follow up on her French open title?
D’Arcy Maine: Golf arrives at Wimbledon – although she has been loved almost the same way since her breakthrough at the event in 2019, she is full of confidence and self-confidence, and certainly could be in a position to bring her best results in the tournament.
But that’s not easy. Despite her auspicious debut at the All England Club, where she reached the fourth round six years ago, she never lost past that point in her opening round match at the only grass court lead-in event held in Berlin earlier this month.
And perhaps most importantly, she will be in an incredibly tough quarter of the draw and will face many challenging opponents, including potential second and third round meetings with Dayana Yastremska in the first round, former Australian Open Champion Victoria Azarenka and Sofia Kenin. In the quarter-finals with Swiatek or 2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina. So it’s a tall order and I’m frankly exhausted. Gauff certainly managed to win all of these matches, but it seems unlikely that she will win a major title three within two weeks.
Bill Connelly: Goff would definitely not be surprised if she won a singles tournament — her defense and speed have always been elite, as well as her ability to crush victory when things threaten to turn whimsical. However, there are so many mines in her draw, she’s only 9-6 in the grass in the last two years. In fact, even including the initial upset of Venus Williams six years ago, she’s 7-9 against Grass’ top 50 players, including three consecutive losses. She will need to win past three top 50 players just to reach Rybakina or Swiatek in the quarterfinals. That sounds a little too much.
Simon Cambers: This can be done in one of two ways. Goff goes to Wimbledon’s feelings as if she could do something. Perhaps supported by the confidence to win at Roland Garros, she loses exhausted, mentally and early. It’s interesting, this. In a way, she should be confidently high after winning the French Open, and there’s no doubt that she’ll walk even taller after coming to the top in Paris.
But in another way, it feels like she’s never actually done her best at Roland Garros. It’s about her, and even when she’s not playing Great Tennis, she does what it takes to win, even if she doesn’t have much time for the ball to flash faster than speeding up on the clay.
If she can serve well, she gives herself a chance to do well. But her draw is very tough. Dayana Yasutermska is not a pushover first. Sophia Kenin or Taylor Townsend can be troublesome in the third round, then in the fourth one either Dahlia Kasatokina, Igaswaitek or Elena Ribakina will be ultra-too in the quarter. If she can reach the second week, she’ll be hard to beat, but that’s not easy.
If there is another epic Alkaraz vs. sinner conflict, who will win?
main: At this stage, I have to go to recent history and take Alkaraz. He won eight of his 12 career meetings, including the past five. Thinner has not beaten Alkaraz on every surface in every tournament, in every round since 2023, and has defeated him only once (3 years ago) with a title on the line.
The sinner is number one in the world for good reason and can beat everyone else, but Alkaraz is like his Cryptonite. Anyway, for now. (However, I will book a comparison of Serena Williams Maria Sharapova at a later date.) And as Alcaraz is Wimbledon champion and yet another grass title at Queen’s Club, Thinner has made only one progress in the All-England Club semi-finals, certainly a favor for Alcaraz.
Connelly: Alkaraz wants it to be him. We enter a time when he feels like he will be a favorite at the natural surface slums (French Open, Wimbledon) and the sinner will be a favorite at the hard courts (US Open, Australian Open). But clearly, the French Open Finals were as equal as possible – total points: 193 sinners, 192 al-carazs – and the sinners basically scored another point at the right time. We were talking about him having a chance at the slams of the calendar year.
Alkaraz is definitely my favorite. He is far more proven in grass, because the sinner may have to pass Djokovic with the best face of Djokovic and the worst of the sinners. But… it seems that sinners are thinking things.
Camber: Alkaraz has a pedigree in grass and has won the title in the last two years, even if the sinner won the only previous battle at Wimbledon in 2022. He seems like the kind of person who can compartmentize the tournament so that he can streamline that tournament as good if the other person collapses after failing with three match points in the slam final. But it’s hard to see him still at his best again, especially on the surface that can theoretically give him a problem.
Alcaraz is also tired, but as he shows with Queens, he improves as the tournament progresses when he passes through many tight matches to win the title. With a good draw early, he can make the event easier and strengthen as the bigger matches arrive. If they meet again here, that means it is the final and you need to give Alcaraz a mental end mentally, simply for what happened in Paris.
Can Djokovic set a Grand Slam record at Wimbledon?
main: Can he do it? yes. he? Something I don’t really understand. However, we believe Wimbledon is his best chance to claim the elusive 25th major title due to his success in the tournament and his experience in grass. His path to the seventh consecutive final could be difficult for British favourite Jack Draper to be a potential quarterfinal enemy and as a sinner. But even if the sinner beat him in the same round in Paris, this meeting would feel much more like grass. And if Djokovic moved forward, he could set up the ultimate rematch with Alkaraz.
Djokovic probably wasn’t lacking in motivation. Perhaps he could bring out a similar performance to what he displayed in a gold medal match against Alcaraz at last year’s Parisiolmât. He hinted at his retirement in the near future, so we can’t imagine a more perfect farewell for Djokovic with his favorite and most respected major.
Connelly: Given that Alcaraz certainly appears to outperform him on the grass (he was pretty panmering in last year’s Wimbledon final), it feels like a lot to ask, perhaps considering he has to beat both the sinner and Alcaraz.
But if that happens, it will happen at Wimbledon, and I was really impressed with how Djokovic played for Roland Garros. It wasn’t just he reached the semi-finals – he made the quarter-finals while playing with a meniscus that had been torn the previous year. That means he was in a really good rhythm from the start of the tournament. He won four matches without dropping the set and controlled Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. He could not understand how to take a set from the informant, but he might find an extra edge on the grass.
Camber: That’s his best chance, that’s certainly true. I thought Djokovic actually played very well against the sinner in the semi-finals in Paris, but on the surface it was impossible for Djokovic, not 38, as the sinner had just more time to load his big ground strokes. Grass gives Djokovic more opportunity. Not only does he move most of it, but his serve is still criminally underrated, buying a little more and more effective.
At Wimbledon, you’re more motivated than anywhere else. It’s only been a year since Djokovic reached the finals. There is little difference between being 37 and 38. He knows more about what he needs to do than anyone else. Another victory not only gives him a slam no. 25, but will be comparable to Roger Federer in eight Wimbledon titles.
But in addition to giving up over 15 years in the world, his big problem is that he will probably have to beat both the sinner and the Alcaraz to win it. That’s probably too much.
Which players will be surprised in the next two weeks?
main: I wish I could surprise French open semi-finalist Royce Boisson, but she lost in the first round of qualifying. However, there are quite a few radar players who can draw out great upsets and run deep. It feels strange to mention someone who won the title just two years ago, but Markea Vondrousova, like he was in 2023, was unseeded and he sidelined most of the spring due to a shoulder injury. However, she thrived on the grass and won her first title since Wimbledon of the month won in Berlin behind several impressive victories. She could have faced Sabalenka in the third round, but she beat 6-2, 6-4 in the Berlin semi-finals and certainly managed to do it again.
Here he managed to reach the final this week at Eastbourne and block defending champion Barbora Klezikova (who retreated from Eastbourne due to a thigh injury) in the first round.
Connelly: On the man’s side, my eyes will soon go to Zverev’s quarter. It’s easy to become the most likely quarter and create a surprise run. Taylor Fritz has a decent draw if he can pass or pass the massive Giovanni Mpetosi in the first round. And if Matteo Berettini tries to find a fun rhythm again, it’s here. But let’s go with Gabriel Diallo. The 23-year-old Canadian won at Hertogenbosch, defeating three top-40 opponents in the process, and defeating Francisco Cerundolo at the French Open, the straight set was another hint for a big, versatile game. He will have to beat Fritz in the second round, but he has it on him.
On the women’s side, Jasmine Paolini’s quarter is probably most likely to produce surprises. I’m going to continue choosing Osaka’s Naomi to run until it happens. Grass wasn’t her best surface and she again received a poor draw – she might have to face No. 5 Zheng Qinwen in the second round. She lost four consecutive matches against her top 20 opponents, but three of the four went deep into the third set. She’s really close to a breakthrough.
Camber: I’m going to call it Berettini. I know he’s a former Wimbledon finalist, but since then he’s been unlucky with his injuries and hasn’t really been able to build momentum that would have become a real threat to him otherwise deepen. If he can get away from another injury, I’ll admit it’s big. He is in the Zverev section, which is a winning match for him.
Which first round matchups are you most excited about?
Connelly: “Joao Fonseca vs. Whonever” is usually a fairly observable option, with 18-year-old Fonseca portraying an interesting player for Jacob Fearnley in the second round last year. And the Fritz vs Mpecchi’s obstacle should produce some serious fireworks.
On the women’s side, Kenin faced Townsend (each of which won the other straight set victory), and we were Vondrousovav. He has a pair of recent champions to face McCartney Kessler. Vondrousova clearly had more slam experience and looked spectacular, beating three top 12 opponents to win Berlin last week, but Kessler won by beating four top 50 women in Nottingham. She looked very home on the grass and nearly defeated Zheng at Queen’s Club.
Camber: I’m also looking forward to the battle between Fonseca and Fienry. Both men have shot rankings over the past year, and Fearnley’s outstanding attitude has come a long way for him. But Fonseca already shows that if things go well for him, he has the talent to head to the top. His lawn experience is very limited, but he has strength, calm and true beliefs.
My second one is the national clash between Kenin and Townsend. Kenin is a favorite in her form, but with her evil left-handed serve and skilled hand skills, Townsend has a game that really makes her go crazy and uneasy. Plus, she has momentum as she won three matches in qualifying to create the main draw.
main: Is that me or does it feel like there are a lot of opening round matchups for Marquee? I mentioned the Eala-Krejcikova match in my previous question, and although that’s not a mistake for me, it’s difficult to not spotlight what could become Petra Kvitova’s final Wimbledon match. The two-time tournament champion announced she will retire later this season and will have to play 10-seeded Emmanavaro in the opening round. If someone can find Wimbledon’s magic at the last minute, it must be Kvitova, and this could be a memorable outing.
On the man’s side, I’m with Simon and Bill. Fonseca Fehnli’s clash is epic and fans will definitely appear for both players in a big way, no matter what court they play.
