Carlos Rodon is on the verge of becoming the third pitcher in Major League Baseball this season to secure 10 wins. The New York Yankees were set to face the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday in the first game of a four-game series between American League East competitors. Rodon, who finished last season with a career-high 16 wins, currently holds a 9-5 record with a 2.92 ERA and aims to join teammate Max Fried and Detroit Tigers’ Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal as the only pitchers reaching 10 wins in 2025.
The Yankees, leading their division, had won two of three games at home against Toronto in April. Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young winner, is making his third start of the season in Toronto after recovering from a thumb injury that kept him out for nearly three months. Rodon has a 2-2 career record against the Blue Jays, while Scherzer stands at 4-5 against the Yankees.
Sportsbooks have set a strikeout prop line of 5.5 for both Rodon (over -114, under -117) and Scherzer (over -115, under -110). The Sportsline Projection model, which simulates MLB games 10,000 times, rates Scherzer’s chances of surpassing 5.5 strikeouts as 4.5 stars and below 5.5 as 3.5 stars on a five-star scale.
Besides Rodon, the model sees favorable value in two other pitcher strikeout props for Monday’s eight games, both rated 4.5 stars with positive returns:
– Carlos Rodon over 5.5 strikeouts (-114) against the Blue Jays, projected for 6.5 strikeouts. Rodon ranks sixth in MLB and third in the AL with 119 strikeouts this season, consistently performing well on the road and against Toronto.
– Garrett Crochet under 7.5 strikeouts (+116) versus the Reds, with a 6.7 strikeout projection. Despite being second in the majors with 135 strikeouts, Crochet has frequently fallen short of strikeout expectations against this team.
– Jacob Lopez over 5.5 strikeouts (+116) against the Rays, projected at 6.2 strikeouts. Lopez has surpassed this strikeout mark multiple times recently, facing his former team for the first time as the Rays look to curb their offensive output.
Fan Take: This pitching duel highlights the rise of dominant arms in the 2025 MLB season and showcases key matchups that could influence division races. For fans, these performances aren’t just about individual stats, but also about how pitching excellence shapes team success and the excitement of strategic baseball battles.
