The 2024 season didn’t keep a secret that first-time head coach Nate Tibbets wanted his team to shoot many threes. In May, Phoenix shot nearly 31 fish per game. This achieved a pace that overturned the number of record attempts by teams over the season (29.7 per New York Liberty in 2023). And while those shots and perhaps certain veteran habits caused those numbers is a lack of efficiency, Mercury’s final average was a 3-point attempt of 26.1 per game. So they averaged over 6 in 2023. Certainly, some newcomers (including Alyssa Thomas, Kalani Brown and Sevgi Uzun) are three-point shooters with either bass volume or low efficiency.
Regardless of the roster changes, Tibet appears to be doubling his ambitions for the team’s shot profile. When talking to PHNX Sports at training camp, he said their midrange shots would be “hopefully the second half of the clock.” Tibbet told the media that he was pleased to see another new arrival. Does Tibbetts harmonize your team’s skill set with your vision for a three-point-centered attack? Ironically, this answer is heavily on Thomas, the last player to make a three-point shot in August 2014.
Certainly, Alyssa Thomas is one of the league’s most successful players in terms of producing high-quality, three-point looks for her teammates despite her dislike for the outside game. In the same media scrum, Tibet even said he felt that a quick refinement of Sabury’s shot profile was possible. This was made possible by the three-point looks that helped Thomas produce for her.
Copper is likely even more than Sabury, and thinks she will benefit from Thomas’ skills as she aims to rebound after filming only 31.4% on 5.9 career-high attempts per game last season. Of course, Bronze doesn’t need an incredibly efficient three-ball to be one of the best players in the game. She was proven by creating a second team All-WNBA despite the shooting struggles last season. However, adding an offensive engine like Thomas, which can create a high-quality look for others, should ensure that copper is consistently of higher quality (after recovering from recent arthroscopic surgery) is photographed. And although there is no particular science in it, it has a high quality look Should It increases time efficiency, especially for players like copper who shot over 40% in 2023.
While proven playmakers like Natasha Cloud, extraordinary scorers like Diana Taurasi, or physical presences like Britney Griner are all attracting defence attention, none of the three key cogs from last year’s teams could repeatedly disrupt the opposition’s defenses, like Alyssa Thomas. As soon as she places the ball on the floor and raises the attack or post, almost every WNBA defender needs help to prevent Thomas’s score, and to prevent a trip to the free throw stripe. And as the defense starts to spin, you only need a simple path to the corners needed to produce the open look that copper needs. Given Thomas’ ability to draw attention to the center of the floor, it’s safe to say that at least once the game should find himself in the corner of his natural gaze for Thomas’ drive and kick. And since Bronze is one of the league’s most skilled attackers, only the best defenders have the room to push hard enough to deny a quick pull-up without being beaten straight away from the dribbling. So a typical Thomas Pass (both on time and target) should provide a clean window for photographing copper.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubkrmp2q8l8
If copper catches a pass like Alyssa Thomas throws into the clip above and causes a fire, it’s hard to watch her shoot this season because of the very inadequate shooting. In fact, the appearance of a similar corner is the perfect area to study for copper after shooting just 29.0% in corners last season. Certainly, corner shots have never been before in the copper arsenal. The last few years with Chicago. Even if the Corner Three continued to represent a small portion of the overall sample of the entire copper shot, the regression to the exceptional efficiency they had from that area in the sky brought them easily in 2024, up two or three percentage points of the overall three-point mark.
Systems like Tibbetts are very focused on creating very specific (and analytically advantageous) shot profiles, so slight differences in efficiency have a big impact on overall attack performance. With playmakers like Alyssa Thomas now folded, Tibbetts have all the reasons to station copper in the corners more regularly (especially because Thomas launches attacks very much). The ability to attack and finish the basket consistently (62.1% FG within 5 feet last season) adds a scoring option only when the ball finds her in those spots against defense in the rotation.
Of course, there are not three shots that Tibbetts likes. At these high rates, other coveted options in his system look at baskets. Thanks to a concrete blend of cleverness, body control and touch, Thomas and Copper can create and finish the shots themselves, but Thomas’ balls in his hand work requires creating even easier scores around the basket with both copper and Savary. The most obvious way for Copper and Savery to reach the end of Thomas’ assist should be through a long outlet pass that became the patented part of the Connecticut approach in Thomas’s era with the team (and already reached Phoenix).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oioutr5hfro
As evidenced in the last few plays above, Copper and Sabury are already strong floor runners, but there are no outlet passersby like Alyssa Thomas because there are no one in the WNBA (or perhaps professional basketball) who have mastered this skill to a very high level. And there should be more when Thomas leads the break instead of throwing a pass to the court An opportunity to improve the quality of the aforementioned 3-point look. If Copper, Sabbery, or other mercury players were running with Thomas during a break, if Thomas finds resistance in her path, there should be a natural tendency for defence that will collapse into the basket during the transition, as the others will fade into the wings and show open looks.
This new look Mercury team hopes to have more resistance on the defensive side than last year’s group (9th in the WNBA). Improved defense usually creates an attractive opportunity to score early on the shot clock, creating the quarterback-receiver connection that Thomas forms.
Certainly, Thomas’ additions need to change as well as fully adjust the tempo of the team after his last death with a fast breakpoint in each of the last two seasons (this indicator alone scored more than five points less than league leader New York). As evidence, The Sun scored the second fastest point among WNBA teams over three seasons since Thomas returned from Achilles’ injury in 2021 (1,341). Having a brain (and passersby) behind many of these points in Phoenix is a great start, but the presence of physically talented high IQ floor runners like copper, and now Sabbary can instantly move mercury to the front of the pack with transition scoring.
And even in Phoenix it’s not The rest score, Alyssa Thomas presence should create some looks in the half court where Savary and Copper have not benefited in the past. Both have played in recent seasons with great floor generals (like Cloud and Courtney Vanderroot) and dynamic scorer playmakers (most notable Arikeo Gunboir), but past teammates (probably Chicago’s Candice Parker) have Thomas barely a physical presence. This is a notable change, especially for Savary. The opposing defense was eager to send help to Ogamboir’s drive in Dallas, but the additional numbers sent would not have been tasked with defending Savary due to the physical profile needed to match the German forward. When Thomas drives, defense has no choice but to take all the deck-on deck approaches. The result should be a more open lay-in for Savary around the basket more than ever in her younger career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-idhjydpma
More traditional posts such as Brown and Natasha Mac’s figures (such as Breona and John Kel Jones in the clip above) benefit most from these situations, but Savary’s size (6’4 inches) and movement means she is in a position to receive many of these passes too. Mercury’s three stars look a bit top-heavy. It is no secret that opposing coaches will try to create a game plan that will ensure that they don’t leave Savally or copper’s movements wide.
For example, a combination of two pick and rolls out of three stars should provide many opportunities for Tibbetts (such as the last two clips above), and the defense will help one of the two players in the action get a high quality look or help the third. Sabbery is the tallest of the three, so he’s the most logical option to hover around the dunker spot on the weak side and crash into the basket to grab the attacking board or to receive a dump of point blanks from Thomas or copper when the defense is filling the drive.
In an inverted pick-and-roll with Alyssa Thomas’ copper screen, Phoenix fades copper into the three-point line, with Thomas driving into the basket, and Sabbary hiding around the basket at once. Unless the first screen is completely defensive and the defender caught in Thomas matches her physicality one-on-one, multiple helpers and crisp rotations may be required to prevent the high-quality appearance by one of the three former All-Stars. Throws historically strong (36.1% carrier) 3-point shooter like Sami Whitcomb into the corner. If Phoenix can regularly reach a half-court set that forces defenses to unpleasant decisions, it’s easy to see how the options to help are quickly limited.
And even that level of detail seems to pass through some of the simple, or routinely effective things that the Thomas team creates on the half court, thanks to the gravity she holds the ball in her hand and the ability to place the passes again on time and target. Just like with the transition, Savary, especially copper, is an ambitious and highly intelligent cutter. Regardless of the defensive strategy or the level of stabbing the Phoenix offense, Mercury should win many simple baskets in 2025, including:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11flgdd3yyw
That said, there are still many reasons why this attack can sometimes be tough in 2025. As mentioned above, the ball will always move faster than a spinning defense, but only if the attack continues to move. If the ball sticks and the defense has time to respond, the option to double Alyssa Thomas while keeping copper and Savaly protected is increased. At that point, it could depend on players like Whitcom (soaked at 29.2% from last season 3), Uzun (23.8% as a rookie), or Rookie Monique Quakoma Crab (solid solid). 40.8% (Slayer: Archer) is making shots overseas. There are also many reasons why opposing coaches live with the consequences. As mentioned above, even copper struggled to effectively shoot the ball in 2024, and the repetitive performance allowed Thomas to tilt a step or two into the paint despite all the looks that he should generate for her.
And at that point it should be a real concern, especially with regard to the amount of archers. Copper, Thomas, Mac and Brown, even after reconfirming last season (45.2 percent), are the best when Savary scores with paint (45.2 percent), taking more shots in paint (39.7 percent of all field goal attempts) than anywhere else. If defense is drawn to an area of floor where all players seem to score most frequently, Thomas’ double and triple team (Phoenix’s prospects as a scorer are not covered here; 2,500 words weren’t that much) will become copper to win, to win just Savri, Whitcom, copper, copper.
Ultimately, reality will likely fall between the best case scenarios. This is the result of copper and sabbery over 40% dynamic attacks in 5 or more than 3 per game, and an ending where they pack paint every night for poor outdoor shooting. So the success of the season could ultimately ultimately teenage his favourable, highly specific shot profile and his ability to balance his three-stars, especially copper. Regardless of how the offensive balance ultimately develops, Alyssa Thomas’ arrival will help to activate some important dynamics within the improved mercury crime, even as a non-taker in Tibetan’s three-point heavy system.
All statistics up to the 2024 season. Unless otherwise stated, all statistics are courtesy of Basketball Reference and wnba.com.
