Over the past 10 months, sports betting has felt somewhat predictable, especially with the dominance of favorites like Cholkie. This has led to a dry spell for some bettors, though they’re not alone in this experience.
Before the college football season began, many expected Georgia (+300) or Ohio State (+325) to win the playoffs. Ohio State did make it, though with some difficulty, which worked well for the bookmakers. Chris Andrews of South Point noted that while the journey looked shaky, the results ended positively. However, most College Football Playoff (CFP) games favored the favorites, with 10 out of 11 favorite wins and only one underdog victory when Notre Dame won as a slight underdog in the Orange Bowl. Early bettors loaded money line parlays on favorites in the first round, which turned out profitable.
The trend of favorites winning is also seen in the NFL, where favorites won 72.1% of games this season—the highest since 2005—and covered the spread 54.1% of the time. However, bettors should be cautious, as historically, such winning streaks by favorites often regress. Andrews humorously recalls 2005 as a similar tough year for bettors.
John Murray of Superbook reflects on the NFL money line parlays, noting December was particularly challenging with underdogs often prevailing. Still, CFP betting went well in some states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, with popular underdogs performing well. The NFL playoffs and Super Bowl were more favorable for bettors.
In baseball, the Dodgers (+350 preseason) claimed the World Series in a dominant fashion, defeating favored teams easily. Meanwhile, the NHL was the only sport with truly unpredictable playoffs, where the Florida Panthers (+2200 preseason, +800 playoff start) won their first Stanley Cup after a gripping seven-game series against the Edmonton Oilers.
The NBA Finals were less surprising, with preseason favorite Boston (+400) capturing the title effortlessly. The NCAA Tournament also saw mostly favorites advance, with Florida making a notable run despite a long shot chance at the start of the season.
The women’s NCAA tournament followed its predictable pattern as Connecticut secured the championship. In golf, Rory McIlroy, who was a popular bet at BetMGM, won the Masters in a dramatic playoff, completing his career grand slam and overcoming past near misses.
Looking ahead, bettors aren’t expecting much variance in the NBA playoffs, predicting a likely Celtics-Thunder final—something both Andrews and Murray are comfortable with.
Overall, this sports betting season has been characterized by favorites’ dominance, a challenging landscape for bettors seeking underdog wins, and a reminder from history that such runs may eventually reverse.
Fan Take: Hockey fans should celebrate the Panthers’ stunning Stanley Cup victory, as it highlights the thrilling unpredictability unique to the NHL playoffs—something that keeps the sport exciting and fans engaged. This unpredictability could attract more viewers and bettors, boosting the sport’s popularity and competitiveness in the future.
