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The phrase "Copycat League" often emerges when NFL trends rapidly spread, a phenomenon similar to the Baader-Meinhof effect, where coaching hires, player preferences, and tactical quirks quickly become widespread. NFL teams relentlessly study themselves, their rivals, and various football levels, causing trends that dominate one season to be refined or replaced by the next.
What trends dominate the league in September often get mirrored, improved, or evolved by the holiday season, as seen even in recent Dolphins crimes.
Sometimes schemes see new iterations or classic approaches revisited, even when adapting what was once standard through redesign or simplification.
Straight Dropback Passing Is Making a Comeback
A play gaining renewed favor is the straight dropback pass initiated directly from under center—a technique historically linked to John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt. This method involves throwing without play action, which used to be a foundational tactic before shotgun and pistol formations took precedence, enabling more athletic quarterbacks to survey the field better and add movement-based reads. Under-center snaps once largely signaled running plays, but the rock-paper-scissors game of offense versus defense constantly evolves.
While shotgun formations still excel in quick passes and RPOs, the NFL offense is seeing a dip in center-snap passes—from 11,367 early downs in 2002 with more than 22 dropbacks per game, down to 2,855 in 2024 (just 5.3 per game, including play action). Without play action, dropbacks from under center would be as low as about one per game in recent years. However, teams are re-embracing this approach for its surprise element, protection integrity, and explosive early-down potential.
Leading this charge is coach Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers, who averaged 2.6 under-center dropbacks without play action per early down, yielding over nine yards per attempt in 2024. The Saints under Klint Kubiak followed, and Kubiak’s father Gary’s Minnesota offense has also thrived with this style.
These plays have passed analytical scrutiny, showing higher success rates and efficiency than shotgun and pistol approaches on dropbacks without play action since 2019. Though under-center plays have some trade-offs, particularly in interior pressure and QB mobility, they provide a fresh challenge for defenses overwhelmed by complex schemes.
Third and Fourth Downs Are Changing Due to Shorter Fields
Rule adjustments, like moving the touchback starting spot to the 25-yard line in 2018 and further changes this season, have reduced total plays per game, hitting the lowest marks since 2008. Drives per game also declined to the lowest since the NFL expanded to 32 teams.
Because the ball starts farther upfield, teams need fewer yards to score, prompting more aggressive fourth-down attempts and fewer plays per drive.
NFL offenses have adapted by rethinking third and fourth down strategies. Fourth-down conversion rates hit a league-high 56.4% recently, marking a shift as offenses view third downs less as do-or-die moments. This changed mindset allows more screens and checkdowns on third down and even increased running plays—10.7% of third-down plays were designed runs in 2024, the highest since 2009.
The NFL now resembles the late 2000s more than recent years in situational offense. Defenses have grown more complex and aggressive in pass rush and disguising looks, yet offenses are slowing down the game intelligently. Third-down conversion rates remain strong, notably on shorter yardage plays.
A Powerful Running Game with Lighter Defenders
Running backs are gaining more yards after contact than in nearly two decades, averaging 3.02 yards per contact in 2024. Despite a talent gap in the trenches, defenses have trended lighter over recent years, adapting to pass-heavy offenses by favoring speed and versatility over bulk.
In 2024, the average weight of frontline defenders was about 271 pounds, lighter than years past. Defenders’ roles blur as safeties and linebackers interchange positions, with smaller linebackers becoming commonplace to improve pass coverage and blitzing.
This defensive evolution creates opportunities for offenses to run downhill effectively, aided by athletic quarterbacks and running backs capable of exploiting space with speed and angles. Early-down explosive running plays reached 8.3% league-wide, the second-highest since 2002.
Tight Ends Creating Mismatches Across Offenses
Tight ends remain a key component in creating offensive mismatches, especially as position roles blur. Big-bodied receivers unable to consistently win outside often transition inside as power slot receivers or pseudo-tight ends, combining receiving and blocking duties.
Today’s NFL values receiving ability as much as blocking, with fast tight ends re-emerging as key weapons. Offenses deploy multiple tight ends to alter blocking angles and create gaps, complicating defensive assignments. This trend is seen strongly across teams like the Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Cardinals, and Falcons.
Although defenses respond with nickel and dime packages, offenses exploit mismatches by positioning tight ends to block linebackers and safeties instead of bigger linemen, opening up varied running looks that incorporate fullbacks and motion.
NFL offenses are using multiple tight ends more than any time since 2013, with multi-TE formations up to 7.6% of plays in 2024—the highest since at least 2002.
Teams like the Rams and the entire NFC West are moving back towards personnel groups emphasizing size and versatility over three-wide receiver sets. The Rams are reportedly retooling their offense by rotating Cooper Kupp, who has often played tight end-like roles, with a deeper tight end group.
As new drafts bring more versatile tight ends, NFL offenses will continue leveraging this position’s unique blend of skills to gain a competitive edge.
Fan Take: This resurgence of classic under-center passing, evolving situational strategies, and versatile tight-end usage signals a strategic renaissance in the NFL, blending old-school fundamentals with modern innovation. For fans, it means more dynamic, unpredictable games where tactical ingenuity and player versatility will continue to shape the future of the sport.
