In the nine previous US held at Oakmont, only 23 players finished with pars. Three of the past champions here scored above par, with the winner’s lowest score on 72 holes at 5 under.
Thanks to the high-raffe and fast lightning green at the ankle, the most difficult test in golf is even more dangerous on courses with no water hazards and fewer trees.
“It’s going to be a challenge,” said Liv Golf League captain John Rahm, the 2021 US Open winner. “A lot of unfortunate things happen. It’s a difficult fairway to hit, bad lies, difficult bunkers, difficult greens. It’s a great test and it’s going to be a difficult test.
Will Scotty Schaeffler’s domination continue as he is trying to grab the third game of his career grand slam? Can Masters champion Rory McIlroy fix his issue from the tee that has plagued him in the last two starts? Who is the dark horse that may be ready to lift the US Open Trophy on Sunday?
World No. 1 golfer Scotty Schaeffler has won three of his past four starts, including his third major in the PGA Championship. Is he a golfer who beats again?
Mark Schlabach: The only way this week is not to see Schaeffler compete is whether he is wild from the tee and that didn’t happen in his final victory at the monument. He appears to have understood anything that bothers him with the driver in the final round of the PGA Championship at the Cool Hollow Club last month. And yes, the guy is so good, it could have been a simple case of him going the wrong way.
The world’s No. 1 golfer has won three times in his past four starts. He averaged 14 strokes on the field in the last five starts, but if that happens again it will be nearly impossible to beat it. He leads the tour with the metrics you get on almost every stroke when it comes to ball strikes and driving the ball. He ranks in the top 25 in putting. Yes, good luck.
Paolo Object: Is the sky blue? Yes, Schaeffler is definitely the player the entire golf world chases, and for good reason. Schaeffler looks invincible. I think this course and setup requires his A-game, but he probably won his B-game in Quail Hollow, but Scheffler has returned to his elite 2024 over the past few months.
I agree with Mark this week that the unstable driver will drain Schaeffler from the competition, but I’m also interested in Schaeffler putting a fare on Oakmont’s nasty green complex. Schaeffler fixed that weakness, or at least improved it significantly (he’s the top 20 putter in the world this season), but if he struggles to see putts get in early, he’s gotten frustrated with it and can slowly see him penetrate the rest of his game. Last year at Pinehurst, the native area of the course near the fairway looked unpredictable to Schaeffler. When you squint yourself and try to find out why Schaeffler isn’t good this week, Green might be the answer.
What’s going on with Rory McIlroy and do you think he can find his game in Oakmont?
Schlabach: Obviously, McIlroy was not comfortable on the tee as the driver he used to win the Masters was considered a misfit for testing at the PGA Championship. He wasn’t a factor for Quazur Hollow, he won four times and couldn’t get a drive in the short grass.
McIlroy used a different version of the new Taylormade QI35 driver at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. His outcomes have deteriorated. He used a shorter shaft (44 inches) to try to control the ball more strongly, but only hit 42% of the fairway. He only found four in the second round when he posted an 8-over 78. It’s a recipe for disasters in Oakmont.
He’s using another Taylormade driver this week, but he feels he’s in a better place.
McIlroy finally gets things on the tee, but after completing his career grand slam with the Masters, I’m more concerned about his way of thinking and motivation. He spoke openly about how difficult it is to grind it into a training range for three or four hours. No matter how many times he wins on the PGA Tour, he will not match his victory at Augusta National Golf Club.
“You dream of the last putt going to Master, but you don’t think about what’s coming next,” McIlroy said Tuesday. “I think I’ve always been a player who struggles to play after a big event, after winning any tournament, and after that, I want to achieve something and enjoy it, so I’m struggling to show up in motivation next week because I want to taste the fact that you’ve achieved your goals.
“I think we’ll be following a certain goal for most of the decade and a half, so I think we’ll have some time to relax a little. But here at Oakmont, we can’t relax this week.”
I think it’ll take at least a few more weeks before I see Rory return in his A-game.
uggetti: That brings together golf, right? For one second, McIlroy was at the top of the world and won three tournaments this season, including the master who completes the Grand Slam. The general theory is that he is now freed and may continue to play at a high level for the rest of the year. It’s not that fast.
The whimsical nature of sports has come even at the best. Maybe that’s the case with McIlroy, a swing feel, putting strokes, or newer driver, but even a little detail can derail a proper golfing ride, and it seems McIlroy is experiencing it now.
On Tuesday, McIlroy played 18 holes early and appeared to return to the model and specs of the driver he used in the Masters. This is not the latest Taylord driver. Maybe it will cause some sort of return to golf like he played for Augusta. But if he finds a way to win without hitting most fairways there, Oakmont won’t give him the same leeway.
What do you expect from defending champion Bryson Deccanbaugh this week?
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Bryson Deccanbeau: I’m grateful for this year since we opened
Bryson Deccanbeau joins the “Sports Center” and looks back on the years that have passed since his open victory in the US and his golf journey.
Schlabach: I hope he’ll come back into the mix. It doesn’t sound like a broken record, but Deccanbeau also has to do a better job of maintaining a drive between the lines than he had a year ago.
Last year at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, Deccanbo only found about half of the fairways from the tee (57%). He can’t do it again at Oakmont. He made up for the inaccuracy by attacking Green and brilliantly winning his second US Open, and Deccanbeau’s putter is one of the reasons he likes to compete this week.
As long as Deccanbeau is off the tee, he is one of the better putters around, and will be the Oakmont Devil Green bonus.
uggetti: DeChambeau has not been the quietest and most consistent major championship player for the past two years, not named Scottie Scheffler. In his past nine major starts, he has six finishes in the top six, including two runner-ups and one win. I would be shocked if he didn’t compete with Oakmont, who presents the kind of canvas that suits his game.
That being said, I’m fascinated by seeing where Deccanbeau’s approach game is and seeing whether that part of his game definitely thwarted him with Augusta and Quail Hollow. During the Masters, Deccanbeau hit 60% of his greens a week, and in the PGA he lost nearly half a stroke to the field in the approach game.
Certainly, Oakmont’s length and Ruff prefer long batters like Deccanbeau, but if his approach game isn’t improving (he has a new La Golf iron in his bag this week), it could be another near miss for the defending champion.
How will Oakmont play this week?
Schlabach: If it is inferior to the massacre, I would be disappointed. Each of the past six US Open recipients had scores under the age of six, but they were a standard total of 47. That shouldn’t be how the US works.
“I don’t think people will turn on the TV and see some of the people who have hit like a green 200-yard shot, do you know what I mean?” said two-time major champion Zander Shaufele. “I think they’re turning on the US Open to see eight people shooting and suffering. That’s part of enjoying playing in the US for their audience.”
I walked the course with Schaeffler and Gary Woodland on Monday. USGA says the rough is 5 inches and is juicy and thick. It was pretty wet on Monday and Tuesday, but the hot weather should be quite dry as clear skies are predicted until Friday.
We saw the ground crew mow the rough in Issue 18 earlier in the week. Or at least I thought they were cutting it with a push lawn mower. I’m sure they’re just flaking and drying it.
“I think it takes patience and discipline,” Justin Thomas said. “If you get lazy like drives, wedge shots, chips, putts, you can look pretty fast and stupid, especially in places like this.”
If the weather forecast is correct, the greens will be much faster, firmer and smoother than any other green golfers have seen outside of Augusta National this season.
“What’s close to par is what they want here,” Schaufele said of the potential victory score. “Members absolutely love their wealth, and they definitely want them to go beyond that. I know what they’re rooting for.”
uggetti: I’m going to pivot about this in the opposite way. I think Oakmont is difficult – all you have to do is walk through the enormous fortunes and look down at the luscious grass to know that the winner is playing golf all week. Still, I think we often forget how good these guys are and how good they are and how the technology they play used in 2016.
Modern games and modern drivers are combined with hyperemphasis on skill, speed and strength from earlier times, giving birth to players like DeChambeau, McIlroy and a few amateurs on the field who can drive it a mile this year. Oakmont is much more subtle than a simple bomb and gurge test, and the complexity sifts away people who don’t belong. However, the game is too deep and good, and the USGA has evolved too much as a governing body, and we expect all sorts of over-finishing finishes.
Oakmont plays hard, but that’s not impossible. Not for these people.
Give one dark horse to compete/win this week.
Schlabach: Harris English is out of his best finish in the majors and he is a bargain with a odds of 100-1. He finished in the top 12 in each of the past four big events, finishing 12th in the Masters, 10th in the Truist Championship, 2nd in the PGA Championship and 12th in the Monument. He has a great track record at the US Open, earning three top eight finishes in his last five starts. He keeps it on the fairway, crashes into enough green and is one of the best putters out there.
uggetti: Does Keegan Bradley fit the bill? He is currently odds of 90-1 to win this week, but seeing him near the top of the leaderboard over the weekend is not entirely shocking. According to Data Golf, the US Ryder Cup captain is a top 15 course fit, mainly due to how accurate he is from the tee. This season he is in the top 20 in the world, with strokes obtained from the tee and top 15 in strokes: approach. It seems like a pretty decent recipe to make noise at Oakmont this week and really bolster the debate over whether Bradley should be a play captain on Beth Page.
