The unwritten rules for Formula 1 contract negotiations state that prize assets must be kept under locks and keys. However, George Russell, one of the star performers of the 2025 season, still has no Mercedes contract in Pocket next year. Even after crowning previous impressive campaigns with a victory from pole position at Canada’s Grand Prix, he shruggs on the suggestion that he has reason to worry, saying, “I’m not worried about next year. I know I’m on the grid,” but he paints uncertainty about the body on paper until he places the pen.
That’s just as true for Mercedes as Russell. The 27-year-old has been writing books since the beginning of 2017, but his situation means that he is obliged to assess opportunities elsewhere and there is no shortage of teams of interest even if there are few obvious vacancy for next year. Everything points to a new Mercedes deal, and there will be some hesitation about Max Verstappen soon, but soon. Mercedes and the team’s principal Totowolf have been cheating with Verstappen for a while, and while there are outside opportunities, the reigning champion may break out of Red Bull, the door remains open. It seems likely that Russell will be extended as there is a possibility of a resignation.
“He’s been growing up with us for a long time,” Wolf said after Russell’s Montreal won. “It comes naturally to me that he made steps from Williams’ young drivers, and that he came to Mercedes during difficult times and equals Lewis (Hamilton) and that Lewis is clearly the leader of the team. That doesn’t seem to be politics.
“The team atmosphere is great, and when we wanted to solve these things, we agreed to a timeline of sorts. The triple headers don’t get in the way in June and July, and they keep racing one after another. But we get there.”
That’s a good situation for Mercedes. Signing Verstappen is easy for any team considering he’s an outstanding driver in Formula 1 and has Red Bull on his own on his own, but it’s a long shot at best, and Russell Mercedes already has a great driver. Kimi Antoneri, who is making a good but still a great rookie campaign, has a long-term deal, so it’s Russell who will be reluctantly sacrificed if changes are made. Given how much Mercedes invested in him, the inability to use Verstappen is almost the best as it is a big call to sacrifice the drivers you have developed, especially those operated at such a high level.
Russell’s near-for-1 rise began with his early promising performance at the uncompetitive Williams in 2019, then rose to a dizzy peak with the team. That means this is often overlooked, but his first F1 podium finish in 2021 was completely unfit thanks to his sensational lap. He had already won the 2020 Sakill Grand Prix for Mercedes’ one pronoun towards the end of his second season in Formula 1, as well as providing notifications for his front running credentials from all. If anything, his promotion to Mercedes in his fourth year in 2022 was a year late. Russell would certainly agree, consistent with his arrival coinciding with F1’s Mercedes domination and winning 15 of 16 world championships over the past eight seasons – ending.
That’s not to say that Russell didn’t have the jagged edges that need to be rounded during Williams’ stints. Like an inexperienced driver, during his first point at Imola in 2020 (dubbing “Amateur Mistakes”), there was the most infamous crash under the most infamous safety car, then wiped out Mercedes’ stable Valtteri Bottas on the same truck a year later. It was a humble lesson, considering his initial rebellion gave way to an apology and gave way to climbing beyond the less robust drivers.
The tendency to take over errors to his Mercedes career. He is on a steep learning curve in that he can match his teammates’ tire management, but he made a big impact by performing in his first season in 2022 compared to Hamilton. There were some mistakes, such as the clash with Mick Schumacher in Singapore, where he largely avoided criticism, but the issue wasn’t too much of a problem. His highest glory is in Brazil, where he won both the sprint and the grand prix, the latter holding down Hamilton in the final stages.
Russell’s upward curve swayed in 2023. While he stayed fast, mistakes began to become a problem. It was off during the Monaco Grand Prix, crashing in Canada, slashing open a wall and burning on a barrier, and third in Singapore’s final lap, passing Land Norris and colliding with Las Vegas’ Vertappen. On his own scale, it was a “really crude and troublesome season.”
The pace has always been there, but in 2025 Russell has shown greater resilience even under pressure. James Sutton/Getty Images
Last year, either confirming that Russell was a quick, shaky racer and was able to win occasionally with the right machine, or that he really showed that he has the ability to become a succession winner, felt like a potential inflection point. He proved to be the latter, creating a strong season where he outperformed Hamilton comprehensively in qualifying, and raced well. Winning in Austria – Fortunately, we’re lucky considering the late Norris/Verstappen crash, but the result was the reward for being locked up in third place behind them on Las Vegas and On the Road before the car was eliminated at the spa. In fact, Russell felt that Belgian Grand Prix “Victory” was his best and the result of a well-managed one-stopper he pushed.
However, Russell’s calling card was his qualifying advantage over Hamilton. An adjusted average of 0.215% is faster, equivalent to 0.172 seconds on 80-second laps. The fight together shook back and forth in their first two years, but in 2024 Hamilton was dominated by qualifying in a way never happened before. Russell accepts the driving style required by the current generation of ground effects, but he also emphasized that qualifying has long been strong.
“My natural driving style works well with these cars,” he said at the end of the season. “But likewise, my qualifying records for my previous generation (car) teammates were good, and my qualification records were strong in all categories. So I don’t think there’s anything special about this generation.
Hamilton’s struggle continues with Ferrari. His late brake style and too much unstable rear unstable discomfort is incompatible with ground-effect vehicles that tend to get separated into slow corners on fast turns and enter oversteer. The advantage of Russell is that he is a smooth driver who tends to get faster to brake to calm the car and therefore ensure that the aerodynamic platform is well balanced. He then combines it with a huge commitment in terms of entry speed. Early braking may sound conservative, but it is essential to operate the car on the brakes and put the front end in corners, and that’s a technique, and Charles Leclair also came along shortly in 2025 when the current ground-effect car was introduced.
So far, Russell has had little use for Antonelli. The exception is qualified in Miami, where he struggled to get his tires into the windows for both the sprint and the main session. It’s an outlier, given that he’s generally good at that score this year, and has been surprisingly close to pole positions many times before he finally breaks through in Canada.
So, what about the future? Regardless of where he is in 2026, and aside from an unexpected driver market twist, it will be Mercedes – his early fight with Verstappen is fascinating. He intended to get him off the ground to defy the top dogs in Formula 1 and clear it with emphasis on what he was saying. The duo has a series of flare-ups, and in Qatar’s qualifying session, Russell cleverly or ironically relied on your point of view to steer Verstappen to score a penalty for obstacles. That led to some harsh words from Verstappen after winning the race that Russell used as the reason for giving him both barrels in a highly calculated media interview in Abu Dhabi.
Verstappen gets into the minds of many drivers, but is that the opposite of Russell? Clive Rose/Getty Images
It was an interesting battle, and so far sporadic given the various competitiveness of Red Bull and Mercedes cars in recent years. Russell considers himself a driver who can stand up to Verstappen and beat him, and lays out a set of markers he hopes if he fights for the championship one day. Verstappen helps himself to be faster than Russell, but he shows signs that Mercedes drivers will get him. In Montreal, Russell created a QUIP after acquiring pole position for getting more license penalty points, and Verstappen later revealed that he is tired of mentioning that he is one point away from the ban on one race is being brought forward. Russell probably sees it as a victory in a psychological battle.
Russell and Verstappen’s F1 Fates are intertwined, but one day it appears that the duo is destined to hold a season in which the duo fights smoothly. Verstappen’s favorite is a show that he is once again and again one of the greatest greats of all time, so it’s an appetizing prospect.
The question now is whether Russell has the sharp edge of a razor in terms of pace and racetracks to make this ambition well. Whether he succeeds or fails, the fight could be F1 box office revenue.
