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In recent years, the Miami Dolphins might have learned to stop comparing their offense to the famed "Greatest Show on Turf." In 2023, the Dolphins explosively scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos, which was unexpected given the Broncos’ reputed defense and the rampant comparisons to the 1999-2001 St. Louis Rams — comparisons that were almost endless. Yet, less than two years later, that win seems to have been the bright spot of the Dolphins’ current era; they clearly aren’t the running contender they once hoped to be.
Looking towards 2025, it’s hard to be optimistic about Miami’s prospects. While Tua Tagovailoa remains underrated, his ongoing concussion concerns have resurfaced in 2024. Tyreek Hill’s production dropped sharply, causing tensions that had to be smoothed over by the team and Hill himself following his remarks about his time in Miami. Jalen Waddle also saw a significant dip in performance, and the offense lost its dynamism. The offensive line performed poorly, and the defense deteriorated. Trade rumors swirled around cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith — two of Miami’s few standouts last season.
Coach Mike McDaniel found himself under pressure, especially after being repeatedly late to meetings and fined, which suggested a disconnect with the locker room. The alarm bells rang when players seemingly sided with 2023 defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who led the Philadelphia Eagles to the best defense in the NFL and a Super Bowl title last year. The Dolphins could have really benefited from a coach like Fangio.
Chaos seemed to engulf Miami quickly. McDaniel remarked, "We made the playoffs two years in a row, and people liked what we did. Then last year we struggled early and couldn’t recover, and now everyone wants to fire the whole staff."
It’s possible the Dolphins can turn things around — McDaniel regaining his touch, Tagovailoa staying healthy and effective, and De’Von Achane rediscovering the explosiveness of his rookie season. However, that’s a big "if," and the team might be just a season away from being ruled out of playoff contention despite an 11-win potential.
At least the 1999 Rams no longer need to worry about being surpassed by this Dolphin team.
Offseason Grade
The Dolphins lost another high-profile free agent, as defensive tackle Christian Wilkins joined the Raiders, and Jevon Holland signed a $45.3 million contract with the Giants. Miami’s cap mismanagement continues to cost them prized players. The only notable signing was guard James Daniels, who inked a $24 million deal to replace Robert Jones, who left for the Cowboys. Though Daniels represents an upgrade, he’s recovering from a torn Achilles. Miami’s draft picks—defensive tackle Kenneth Grant and offensive lineman Jonasabai Inaire—weren’t exciting but aimed to bolster the lines.
Grade: D+
Quarterback Report
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 72.9% completion rate in 2023, but that statistic can be deceiving. He played very conservatively, throwing deep passes (over 20 yards) only 6% of the time, down from 11.3% the previous year. His average target depth was the lowest in the league at 6.1 yards, compared to 8.1 yards before. This might be due to a poor offensive line, underperforming receivers, or an attempt to avoid hits after multiple concussions. The offense that thrived on speed in 2023 shifted to shorter, safer passes to tight end Jonnu Smith. While Tagovailoa still produced adequately, this more cautious style limits the Dolphins’ potential.
betMGM Odds Breakdown
Ben Fawkes from Yahoo points out that the Dolphins’ lowest total at bet MGM since 2020 is 8.5 wins, highlighting them as the biggest +155 underdogs to make the postseason in that span.
Yahoo’s Fantasy Take
Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski notes that Tyreek Hill’s fantasy value has dropped to WR16 due to a rocky start in Miami and his lackluster performance since week one last season.
Key Statistics
Hill averaged 112.4 receiving yards per game in 2023, cutting last season’s output almost in half. His wrist injury requiring surgery likely contributed to his decline. In 2023, Hill featured four of the fastest plays in the NFL but none in 2024. His explosive playmaking disappeared, with significant drops in yards and big plays. Off-field issues surfaced as well, with Hill admitting to “18 outbursts” and declaring in May that he didn’t deserve to be team captain, signaling unrest.
The Big Question: Who is the Real De’Von Achane?
Achane’s production dipped from 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie to 4.5 last season. He broke fewer tackles despite more attempts, and the Dolphins’ rushing rank fell from 5th to 28th in the league. While Achane remained reliable, his explosive ability was missing in 2024. The Dolphins need that big-play potential to return if they want progress.
Best Case Scenario
Despite their struggles last season and an 8-9 record, the Dolphins showed promise with strong performances when Tagovailoa played. McDaniel’s coaching plans might still have merit if adjustments are made, Tagovailoa pushes the ball deeper, Achane combines his rookie explosiveness with reliability, and the defense improves. If so, Miami could return to playoff contention without the lofty comparisons to the Rams.
Worst Case Scenario
There’s skepticism lingered about the 2023 Dolphins’ genuine quality. Tagovailoa’s health remains a major concern, and he may lack the ability to elevate the team. If Miami’s offense stays conservative and Hill continues to underperform, the team could fall into mediocrity again. A double-digit loss season might lead to McDaniel’s firing, severing ties with Hill, and even considering moving on from Tagovailoa. This would mark the start of a rebuild for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000.
Crystal Ball Prediction
The Dolphins inspire little confidence right now; their roster is arguably weaker than last year’s losing squad, and they had the NFL’s easiest schedule by DVOA in 2023. A return to the playoffs hinges on significant rebounds across the offense and health improvements, which is possible but not likely. More probable is a drop to a worse record, leading to a major offseason overhaul, crushing fans who briefly saw hope in recent years.
Fan Take: The Dolphins’ struggles highlight the fragile nature of NFL success, especially when key players face health and performance declines. For NFL fans, Miami’s trajectory is a reminder of how quickly fortunes can change, influencing coaching careers, player legacies, and the competitive balance of the league.
