Why Selling Noni Madueke to Arsenal Would Be a Costly Error for the Blues

Understanding Chelsea’s squad building approaches over the past three years doesn’t require much digging. Todd Berry has outlined their strategies multiple times, including as recently as February this year.

“You identify the young player you believe in,” he noted.

While one may debate whether this strategy is a guideline, it’s clear that Chelsea is focused on nurturing a youthful core. This commitment comes to light as they discuss a selling strategy involving an England international, with CBS Sports reporting a deal approaching $70 million, which reflects the fees paid when he transferred from PSV Eindhoven in January 2023.

Reports indicate that Noni Madueke has reached an agreement on personal terms with Arsenal, although discussions are still in the early phases. This suggests Chelsea has some leeway to reconsider their transfer plans. Selling Madueke would contradict the positive trajectory in their team-building process, which has yielded success over the past 18 months, including reaching the Club World Cup final.

Parting ways with him to Arsenal would be a serious misstep.

Madueke’s Progress

By the conclusion of the 2024-25 season, Madueke had established himself as an impressive winger. His performance statistics illustrate this, with 46 appearances across all competitions resulting in 11 goals and five assists, highlighting a player ready to excel. Despite a slow second half to the season, Madueke converted a 9.64 non-penalty expected goals (NPXG) rate into seven actual goals in the top flight. Early-season hat-tricks showcased his potential, even if his subsequent goals were harder to come by. His assists mirrored this trend, with three contributions compared to an expected four.

A significant draw for Arsenal or other suitors is that at only 23 years old, Madueke displays considerable promise. For attacking players, this potential is invaluable. He positioned himself strategically to average 3.5 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League, outperforming peers. His non-penalty expected goals (NPXG) increased significantly from the league average of 0.055 to 0.12, showcasing his evolving skill set. These advancements are evident in his shot locations, which predominantly focus on testing goalkeepers.

Examining his shot diversity illustrates how often he challenges keepers. Earlier in the season, he successfully transitioned Chelsea’s attacking strategy under Enzo Maresca, demonstrating the ability to navigate through defenses and capitalize on opportunities. His performance in a 3-1 victory against Liverpool illustrated this, where Chelsea’s No. 11 was pivotal despite not finding the net.

Last season, Madueke’s NPXG per 90 minutes saw a notable rise from 0.15 to 0.42, ranking him among top wingers alongside players like Luis Diaz and Brennan Johnson. Chelsea’s right winger, often considered a secondary attacking option, has consistently ranked highly in the Premier League statistics. Not many players offer such a comprehensive skill set as Madueke, reinforcing his growing impact on the pitch.

While not the strongest crosser, Madueke’s contributions were significant in various aspects crucial for Chelsea’s 2024-25 campaign, as evidenced by metrics assessing how his play influenced victories. His expected ownership value is notably high for a player taking numerous shots.

For those skeptical, the data reveals his growth. Some may perceive Madueke as limited in situational awareness, occasionally making poor decisions, but the statistics point to a player on the rise.

Fan opinions have varied, especially with increasing interest from clubs like Arsenal, sparking discontent among some supporters. There might be reluctance towards signing ex-Chelsea players, fueled by past disappointments such as Willian.

Concerns about his commitment and conditioning have arisen due to previous public critiques from Maresca, who indicated that Madueke needed to improve his training ethic.

Maresca remarked, “His lack of playing time was due to training standards, and he must approach the game with ambition.” While he acknowledged the player’s talents, he emphasized the need for consistent effort.

This pattern of perceived poor attitude isn’t new, as evidenced by past incidents. Even amidst skepticism, Madueke has made marked improvements last season.

Joao Pedro’s exciting performance for Chelsea at the Club World Cup highlights ongoing changes within the squad.

Pareep Cattry

Another debate surrounds Madueke’s potential sale. If Chelsea could net $70–80 million, should they invest in alternatives like Rodrigo or pursue young talent like Jamie Gittens? This could represent smart business. Selling Madueke could be beneficial for Chelsea’s strategy, especially if they look to invest in promising prospects amid their ongoing recruitment efforts.

While there are emerging talents that might provide similar potential, Chelsea must recall what Liverpool’s former research director Ian Graham remarked; even seemingly sound transactions can yield unpredictable results. Madueke’s transfer, initially viewed as an economical acquisition, has proven contentious, but his continued development could mean a bright future ahead.