Portrush, Northern Ireland – The final major championship of the year has arrived. If the 2019 Open Championship is any indication, the Royal Portrush is once again set to provide the perfect canvas for the epic four rounds of golf to determine the champion golfer of the year.
This year’s major has already given us compelling results as world number two Rory McIlroy completed a career grand slam with the Masters and world’s top player Scotty Scheffler won the PGA Championship and added it to his major total. Journeyman JJ Spaun then shocked the world of golf last month, lasting longer than all players on the field and conquered Oakmont for a big victory at the US Open.
All three are open this week, with the rest of the world’s top players looking to take part in the storyline of this major season.
Let’s take a look at the 25 players who are most likely to raise the claret jugs that will come Sunday.
1. Scotty Scheffler
Before any of these majors, there’s not much to say about Schaeffler, not only always frame the warnings of simply overwhelming the rest of the field in the way he can. But even more interesting is that the three-time major champions go their way abroad and try to translate what he excels the state into a very different style of golf.
At the Scotland Open this week, Schaeffler was tied up in 8th place, and his record in the Open Championship was relatively the most mixed in the other majors so far. With four starts, Schaeffler’s best finish is the tie that came in seventh in the opening last year (he was tied up in eighth place in his 2021 opening debut). If you need to remind him how good he is, since 2021 (the first year he played all four majors), this is the only major that Schaeffler has one or more finishes outside of the top 20 with 19 starts.
So, yes – spoiler alerts – it’s safe to say that the best players in the world will probably compete this week.
2. John Larm
Perhaps no one has been heading slowly but certainly in the right direction during this year. Certainly, the number of top 10 LIV finishes he has won is huge, especially in the way he performed at the biggest event of the year. Lahm has found his game since last year’s Open Championship at Royal Toon, he quietly finished with a tie for the seventh time.
At the Masters, he finished 14th and followed up on that performance and headed to the back nine with a real chance to win the PGA Championship. The Spaniards were unable to capture Schaeffler, but there was a way he fought there and was bound by the seventh typical Rahm in Orcmont. No one gets a more competitive juice flowing than he, and considering the place he already occupies in European golf history, he feels he should put a claret jug on his resume. In the way Rahm played recently, Portrush should set up nicely to give him the opportunity to do it.
3. Rory McIlroy
Well, here we are again. The opening has returned to McIlroy’s home country, so he should – focus on Should – Join the mix to win your sixth major championship. In 2019, it was also a sensation, with McIlroy continuing to push the first tee shot of the tournament out of bounds and missing the cut. This was the highly anticipated anti-climax conclusion of the week.
A lot has changed since then – McIlroy has won the Green Jacket and is now a Grand Slam winner. He has also been below performance since historic victory in April. Additionally, he talks at length about his struggles with finding motivation, and also acknowledges that there is something about this particular tournament being in Northern Ireland that inspires him. Perhaps the spark came a week earlier. At the Scotland Open last week, McIlroy played some of his best golf since the Masters, posting a round of 68-65-66-68 to tie it up second.
4. Bryson Deccanbeau
Just as Decanbeau has been fascinated by the way he strategizes and attacks Augusta National every year, I am always fascinated by how his games translate or don’t translate to link golf. With seven appearances, Deccanbeau only finished in the top 10 (2022 Royal Liverpool), missing out on three cuts, including last year’s Royal Troon.
Everything is on the table for two US open winners this week. Dechambeau can say that he can find his approach game in some way and take command in Portrush on his short game. I believe it. You could also say that he struggles to keep it fairway under tough conditions and misses the cut. This style of game doesn’t fit exactly to Dechambeau, but seeing him try to crack the code is worth the admission fee.
5. Xander Schaufele
The defending champion is only here in the fifth place, as he has been a relatively quiet year since winning two majors last year. After dealing with a rib injury at the beginning of the year, Schaufere took a while to rest before taking time to return to form. He has only had one top-10 finish this season, and his approach game (top 10 strokes obtained on the tour) has supported what was a characteristically bad year for his drivers, short games and putting.
One of Schaufere’s finest qualities, his overall stability is what allowed him to come from behind with the Troon last year. This week we will probably need a lot of it again at Portrush.
6. Shane Laurie
Perhaps this may be too expensive for Raleigh, but in 2019 he rode an emotional wave of playing in an area well known to the six-shot victory he commands. The energy that Laurie carries with him should be worth some value for his chance this week as fans cheer him on where he has already won.
Like McIlroy, he becomes one of his emotional favorites. His game hasn’t grown at all in the majors this year (missing two cuts and tied 42nd in the master), but he has four top-10 finishes on the tour.
7. ViktorHovland
Knowing exactly how Hovland plays in the major championship these days is a complete guessing game. He may be waxing at a press conference on how bad his swing feels and how he pursues the perfect feeling, but he may be competing for the way he does at Oakmont, where he finished third last month and had a real shot to win it on the back nine.
Earlier this year, Hovland missed out on three straight cuts. Shortly afterwards, he won the Valspar Championship. Last year, Hovland finished third in the PGA Championship and missed out on cuts in three other majors, including Open. Like DeChambeau, Hovland has a game to win this week, but the space between his ceiling and his alcove is wider than anyone near the top of this list.
8. Collin Morikawa
Not many people have been hit the ball this season. His ball strikes are still elite as ever, but despite having four top 10 this season, he doesn’t seem to be able to overcome the line and win his first tournament since the 2023 Zozo Championship.
Morikawa knows how to win this tournament – he did it at Royal St. George in 2021 – since then his game has been objectively improved, but it appears to be lacking in his ability to bring together four quality rounds in the top tournaments of the sport. This year he finished 14th in the Masters, but he fell back, 50th in the PGA Championship and 23rd in the US Open. In theory, on a course like Portrush, Morikawa’s iron play and accuracy from the tee should compete for him. How his putting fare (currently 99th in the tour this season) determines how much leaderboard he can go.
9. LudvigÅberg
There was a point that he felt like it was a sport story shortly after Aberg’s victory at this year’s Genesis Invitational. Since then, Aberg has fallen into a bit of a rut, losing four cuts (including both PGA and US opens), and notching only one top 10 finish (7th in the master). But Aberg is quietly hiding. In Scottish last week, he seemed to find some form and tie him to 8th place, but it wasn’t a shock if he was involved in a conversation at Portrush this week and strolling around until Sunday.
10. Tommy Fleetwood
Will this finally be a week? Fleetwood has struggled not only to capture big wins in recent years, but also to wins that have not been on the DP World Tour. Fleetwood’s game is a game with an elite ball strike and feels ready for an open championship, and this game in particular should suit his game. He missed a cut at Troon last year, but in two previous appearances at the Open, Fleetwood finished in the top 10.
11. Tyrrell Hutton
Perhaps the hatton should be a little higher here. His performance at Oakmont was totally impressive – the fourth tie was his best finish in the majors, and it feels like he’s slowly heading towards the major championship weekend (he has had two top 15 finishes at Augusta in the past two years).
Still, it’s hard to shake up the fact that Hatton’s attitude, the way he reacts to bad shots and bad breaks, will be tested this week with link setups like Portrush. Either way, it’s fun to watch him try this week.
12. RobertMacintyre
McIntyre was totally impressive at Oakmont, fighting Sunday’s conditions and delays, holding the clubhouse lead and covering the two rounds to get closer to the playoffs with Spawn. Macintyre is comfortable in this part of the world and in the links, to say the least. He missed the cut with the Scots last week, but has a game to compete in Portrush this week.
13. Russell Henry
When ball strikes and accuracy are prioritized at a particular venue, not mileage, rather than mileage, Henry appears to be on the top and rising for good reason. He is the top 10 player in strokes and has won eight top 10 and one victory this season. On the main side, Henry struggled and missed the Master and PGA cut. At Oakmont, I felt a top 10 finish was more appropriate. And now he’s coming to Portrush, which comes out from his fifth place finish at TROON last year.
14. BrooksKoepka
It’s difficult to measure where Koepka’s current game is. He showed a flash of his old Self-Oakmont and spoke at length about how much his swing had been lost for some time, but he retreated from the next LIV event and placed 32nd in his latest tournament. This week, if Portrush’s condition scored Gnarly, we could see Koepka rise, but his game may just not be sharp enough to really compete.
15. Joaquín Niemann
Here is: Nieman should be more than 15 on this list, but the reality is that he continues to excel in LIV (4 wins this season), but his performance in the biggest events of the sport continues. Even this year, after finally recording his first top-10 finish in the majors during the PGA, Neiman followed suit with a missed cut at Oakmont.
16. Justin Thomas
Thomas and the Open Championship don’t seem to go very well. In eight appearances in the event, Thomas missed three cuts and didn’t finish in the top 10. But if you’re looking for optimism, Thomas’ best finish came out in Portrush in 2019. He hopes to bring the same kind of display to the Dunluce course this week.
17. Matt Fitzpatrick
I really don’t know what to do with Fitzpatrick, who hasn’t won the Tour since 2023 and hasn’t really competed in the majors since the US Open victory in 2022, but he showed some form this week with an eighth place finish in the Rocket class and a fourth place finish last week at the Scotland Open.
18. Jordan Spieth
If you’re a player who doesn’t know what you’re trying to get, then this is Spieth. It’s a struggle to believe he actually has a chance to win this week, but even as unstable as he could, Spieth has four top-10 finishes this season and only missed two cuts. Last year, these two numbers were 3 and 7 respectively.
19. Justin Rose
Don’t forget that Rose had a real shot to win this tournament at TROON last year and ended up with the second tie. Rose has been a rollercoaster year so far, taking McIlroy to the playoffs at Augusta, but has missed three of his past four cuts, including the PGA Championship and the US Open. Still, at 44, he proves he can still compete and the open may be his best shot to get a second major.
20. Corey Conners
Like Henry, Connors’ superpower is his elite ball strike, which should translate well into link courses such as Portrush. It doesn’t feel like the Connors have really raised the game enough to compete in the major championship (his best finish is sixth place finish at the 2022 Master), but as he did with Brian Herman in 2022, the open tends to often give unexpected winners who keep the ball ahead. Connors could certainly be that.
twenty one. JJSpaun
Just like Wyndham Clark after the 2023 US Open victory, Spaun’s career now takes on a different tone. Whether he can follow the victory at Oakmont at another competitive start in the major championship may be a difficult question, especially considering this is the first time he’s been competing in the open.
twenty two. Ben Griffin
How not to include Griffin? The 29-year-old is one of the best players on the tour this season, winning twice and earning eight top-10 finishes. Griffin was open and had little luck – he missed the cut on two appearances – but he’s playing at a totally different level this year.
twenty three. Keegan Bradley
Five top 10 finishes, a top 10 on the major tour and a PGA Tour victory — that’s what Bradley’s season looks like so far, and the conversation that he’s the captain who played in the Ryder Cup is already on the hot pitch. He may not need it, but he seals it off with a great finish at Portrush, or even an unlikely victory.
twenty four. Sepp Straka
In a move that can only be described as Koepka’s opposition, Straka made a living by taking over the PGA Tour event, but continues to struggle at the biggest stages of the sport. Like Griffin, he added five top 10 while still winning twice this season, but he missed cuts at the Masters, PGA and the US Open.
25. Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama’s best finish at the Open Championship came to his open debut in 2013 when he was tied up to sixth place at Muirfield. Can Matsuyama win? of course. But there’s a lot to be needed for a player who didn’t have a top 10 finish this year outside of his victory at Sentry.
The first four: Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Sam Burns
