Ryan Ohanron
To summarize, Manchester United has reported the fourth-highest revenue among soccer clubs worldwide, as per Deloitte’s latest findings. They also have the fourth-highest player wages, but they finished in 15th place in their own league.
Such instances do happen occasionally. For example, Jürgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund finished seventh in the 2014-15 season, while that year José Mourinho’s Chelsea took home the Premier League title but stumbled to a 10th place finish the following season after Mourinho was let go.
For Manchester United, this situation isn’t merely a fluke where everything went wrong. With a projected strength based on 70% expected targets and 30% historical performance, they were assessed as the 15th strongest team in the Premier League.
This isn’t just a single season of underperformance; United’s recent league finishes have been 6th, 3rd, 8th, and now 15th. Their last four seasons yielded: zero, plus 15, minus one, and minus ten. The evidence points to a consistent decline, not just a bad luck season.
Clearly, United is not only a struggling team but also one with financial resources. They have not yet positioned themselves as contenders for any major titles. They possess the capability to attract top young talent and can offer generous salaries and ample playing time compared to clubs that are currently vying for the Premier League or Champions League titles. This gap might provide them a chance to lay the groundwork for a future successful team.
Currently, they are trying to achieve this but making little headway. With new billionaire Jim Ratcliffe in charge and coach Reuben Amorim coming aboard, not much seems to have shifted during the summer transfer window. Manchester United remains in disarray.
Is Manchester United Serious About Winning the Premier League?
A few weeks back, I mentioned:
“Two years ago, I looked at the starting lineups from the last five Champions League finals. What I found was that players joined those clubs at an average age of 23.8. Most players were on teams before hitting 24, with over 80% already playing important roles well before turning 27.”
The takeaway is that world-class players typically join a club well ahead of the age where players peak, which is around 24 to 28 years old.
This isn’t to say it doesn’t happen, but it’s uncommon for players aged 25, 26, or 27 to shift the dynamics for a title-contending team in the Premier League or Champions League. Teams that pay competitive wages usually snatch up young talent before they mature into stars.
It’s no surprise that the top teams haven’t signed many players within that age range. Established players, who are typically in their peak performance years, are pricier assets. Signing these players means they’ve already spent a part of their peak seasons at other clubs, while those who don’t meet expectations tend to age and lose interest from other teams.
As I observed the transfer activity, I noted how Arsenal had transitioned from focusing on young recruits to targeting experienced professionals this summer. Despite three successive second-place finishes and a run to the Champions League semi-finals, this strategy could be risky.
But consider a team that has struggled to find its scoring touch over the past couple of years. Manchester United secured two players this summer who will be 26 at the season’s start. Regardless of what one thinks of Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, they could be among the Premier League’s top talents, bolstered by playing alongside a theoretically stronger team than those they left behind.
Even if they excel, it’s probable that their best seasons with Manchester United will only occur within the next two years. Is this the ideal timeframe to invest almost €150 million in a team that just ended the previous season in 15th place?
Why Don’t Mbeumo and Cunha Score More Goals for United?
A straightforward way to gauge a player’s value is by examining their goals and expected ownership value. First, you count how often they have successfully put the ball in the net, then you evaluate their overall contributions through non-scoring plays that could enhance the team’s chances.
Last season, both Cunha and Mbeumo proved to be two of the most impactful players in the league.
While they helped their teams score significantly last season, that doesn’t guarantee they’ll replicate that success at Manchester United. Especially considering that Mbeumo benefitted from set-pieces and penalties last season—resources that may not be as abundant at United.
Additionally, as previously mentioned, Mbeumo and Cunha were known for exceeding their expected goals in the last season. While some skeptics might see this as a positive sign, it often stems from random variations.
Cunha outperformed his anticipated goal tally by 6.4 last season, yet he had underperformed in the previous six seasons in Europe. The same goes for Mbeumo; despite achieving higher numbers last season, he fell short in the prior five campaigns. You might hope that both players can become elite finishers, but it’s not wise to bank on such outcomes.
Initially, it seems that Manchester United has signed the fourth and eighth highest scorers in the Premier League, which is accurate—they did. Mbeumo netted 20 goals, while Cunha scored 15. However, if we compare their finishing rates over the past five seasons, Mbeumo would’ve scored around 12 goals, and Cunha between 8 and 9. Excluding penalties, Mbeumo would align with Cunha’s figures. United is, however, paying as if both players will maintain their impressive scoring rates.
When bringing in players who have a standout season, it requires a level-headed assessment, particularly if they come from a career-best performance. That’s how you run a soccer club effectively when aiming to win. Currently, betting markets predict over/under figures of 10 goals for Cunha and 8 for Mbeumo for the incoming season.
What’s the Long-term Strategy for Manchester United?
There’s a debate about whether it’s feasible to build a team solely from young talent. Given how poorly Manchester United fared last year, many argue they should invest in proven players to avoid further embarrassments. A slight boost from above-average Premier League veterans could also help repair the so-called “Toxic” atmosphere mentioned by Luke Shaw.
However, the approach that United has taken lacks clarity, making it hard to see a consistent plan at play.
1:23
Nicole: If I were Sesco I wouldn’t go to Man United.
Steve Nicol expressed concerns about Benjamin Sesco’s potential move to Manchester United.
Among young prospects, Alejandro Garnacho stands out for Manchester United. He showcased 24 goals and assists in the Premier League before his 24th birthday, averaging an expected goals and assists rate around 0.5 per 90 minutes, comparable to players like James Madison, Gabriel Martinelli, and Phil Foden. Such early performance usually signals a promising career ahead.
In contrast, 23-year-old Amad Diallo was the only ray of hope last season, contributing eight goals and six assists before an ankle injury derailed him in February.
Both Garnacho and Diallo could become valuable assets for a Champions League-bound team, potentially saving the club millions in transfer spending. Yet, they occupy the same positions as Mbeumo and Cunha. Thus, the dilemma is whether to bench your top-paid players or limit the development of your most promising young talent.
Additionally, Garnacho, along with Jadon Sancho, Antony, and Tyrell Malacia, was left behind during United’s preseason tour. This strategy was supposed to reinforce the club’s ambitions but instead highlighted that these players are unwanted, undermining their position in negotiations. Why would a club willingly agree to a higher transfer fee for players they no longer want?
Reports indicate that there’s a lack of clarity surrounding United’s negotiations. They expressed frustration over Brentford’s demands for Mbeumo yet seem to have paid that amount anyway. If the price is too steep, there are countless other players available.
Recently, it’s been indicated that Manchester United is weighing two potential options to fill the striker role: Benjamin Sesco from RB Leipzig or Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa.
Sesco is a promising but raw 22-year-old talent, while Watkins is a reliable 29-year-old with proven success in the Premier League. Signing Watkins would be a short-term fix, while choosing Sesco would signal long-term aspirations for 2027-2030.
Back in March, Ratcliffe mentioned the club’s focus would shift toward competing for the Premier League title around 2028, which suggests a plan extending beyond the upcoming season. However, even if we give him the benefit of the doubt for aiming for 2029, by that time, Mbeumo will be 29, Cunha 30, and Watkins will be 33.
While Manchester United publicly claims to aspire towards future victories, their actions suggest a pressing desire for immediate success.
Fan Take: This situation at Manchester United highlights the critical intersection of financial power and performance in soccer. For fans, it isn’t just about the club’s struggles; it represents a broader commentary on how the sport’s financial landscape shapes ambitions and realities on the pitch.
