Quarterbacks are indisputably the most critical players in team sports, but how valuable is each one when considering the point spread? This question is essential for both bettors and bookmakers, especially when evaluating how much a line should shift if a quarterback is injured. Aside from a few elite skill players, like Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley, a starting quarterback injury usually causes the most significant movement in NFL point spreads. Knowing the approximate line changes can offer early bettors substantial advantages.
Before the 2025-26 NFL season, I consulted with 12 odds makers from 11 licensed sportsbooks nationwide to gauge the point spread differences when the starting QB versus the backup (both healthy) faces an average league team. These varying ATS (against the spread) values were averaged, and the quarterbacks ranked from 1 to 32. Some oddsmakers preferred to remain anonymous, offering insights that sometimes diverged from the consensus.
Odds makers consider numerous factors when adjusting lines due to quarterback changes, including:
– The current line and its proximity to key numbers,
– The talent level of the starting QB and backup,
– How significantly the offense needs adjustment for a backup,
– The offensive coordinator’s strength,
– The overall talent of the team (offense and defense),
– The game’s location (home, away, or neutral site).
Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen tops the list as the most valuable QB against the NFL spread with a 6.98 point ATS edge, narrowly beating Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes (6.94). Mahomes had held the top spot in previous seasons. Back in 2018, Allen and his backup showed little ATS difference, unlike Mahomes, who was rated significantly higher than his backup then.
Here’s how much top QBs are worth versus their backups:
1. Josh Allen (Bills) – 6.98 points ATS over Mitch Trubisky
Allen has overcome criticism about his accuracy, improving steadily to become the NFL MVP last season with a 13-4 record, leading in QBR with rushing and passing touchdowns.
2. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – 6.94 points ATS over Gardner Minshew
Despite some regular-season close calls and an 8-9 ATS record, Mahomes remains highly esteemed for his performance and weapons around him.
3. Lamar Jackson (Ravens) – 6.65 points ATS over Cooper Rush
Known for his dual-threat ability, Jackson significantly impacts the offense, which needs notable changes if he is sidelined.
4. Jalen Hurts (Eagles) – 6.31 points ATS over Tanner McKee
Hurts boosted his ranking with a Super Bowl win, showing improved passing and running contributions to the Eagles’ offense.
5. Joe Burrow (Bengals) – 5.60 points ATS over Jake Browning
Burrow had a stellar season statistically, but his injury history and backup performance affect his ATS value relative to other top QBs.
The full rankings show the differences in point spreads when replacing starters with backups for all 32 NFL teams.
Biggest risers among new or surprise starters include:
– Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons) +4.98 points ATS over Kirk Cousins,
– Drake Maye (Patriots) +4.68 points ATS over Josh Dobbs,
– Jaden Daniels (Commanders) +3.75 points ATS over Marcus Mariota.
Conversely, the largest drop is seen with Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) at -1.55 points ATS versus Mason Rudolph, reflecting doubts about Rodgers’ recent performance and impact after moving to Pittsburgh.
Other notable rookies and first-year starters like Come Ward (Titans), JJ McCarthy (Vikings), and Tyler Shough (Saints) show varying ATS differences based on their perceived potential and backups’ quality.
Quick notes highlight other quarterbacks like Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Jared Goff (Lions), CJ Stroud (Texans), Caleb Williams (Bears), and Kyler Murray (Cardinals), with comments on their ATS values relative to backups and expectations for improvement or challenges.
Fan Take: This analysis sheds vital light on the true impact of starting quarterbacks beyond just their on-field performance, revealing how their presence or absence sways betting lines and game outcomes. NFL fans should watch these trends closely, as QB injuries or changes could significantly influence both the competitive landscape and betting markets, shaping the excitement and strategies of the sport.
