We have the last and most loud Grand Slam event of the tennis season. Storyline overflows as the US opens begin this weekend.
Assuming Jannik Sinner recovers from the illness that destroyed the Cincinnati Final against Carlos Alcaraz last week, the new two in men’s tennis are overwhelmingly favored to stomping three straight slam finals off each other.
Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka is 67-13 for the season, but has fallen late in all three slams, dodging Torrid Iga Swiatek (who won 14 of the last 15 games), Coco Gauff (who beat her in the French Open Finals), and countless other challengers from the women’s tour.
Of course, you know how the tournament plays out, but it rarely goes as planned with the US open. For example, if there is a legend seeking a calendar slam (Serena Williams in 2015, Novak Djokovic in 2021), then that’s a bad thing. If you’re ready to prepare for something that’s never been out of date, it can be awfully good (in 2018, Bianca Andreesque in 2019, and Emmaradu Canoe in 2021).
Chaos starts right away by preying on the first round. On the men’s side, there are matches like Alkaraz vs big serving veteran Riley Opelka, four-time champion Djokovic vs tricky young American learner Tien, and 10-seeded Lorenzomsetti vs big serving Giovannim Petz Cipery. On the women’s side, they’ll get ageless Venus Williams vs. two-time semifinalist Karolina Mciva, Big Hit Canada’s Victoria Boko vs. two-time slam champion Barbora Klezikova and retired Petrakvitova vs. Veteran Diane Parry.
Whether Chaos or Chalk is waiting for us over the next two weeks, let’s know the names that are most likely to define the tournament.
favorite
Jannik Sinner
ESPN Bet Odds:+115 | Tennis abstract odds:44.4%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 5 Jack Draper or No. 10 Lorenzom Setti (Quarter Final)
Over the past year, the 24-year-old Italian is 1-4 against Alcaraz (including Cincinnati retirements) and 55-1 for everyone else. He is 6 feet 3 and can reach corners from corners in milliseconds. His ground strokes are so pure he seems to be hitting a random winner from a neutral situation at times. He is absolutely dynamite, his draw doesn’t turn into a complete wind and he may still be working in a way back to full strength, but the sinner may not have to shift to fifth gear until the 2024 semi-finals are a rematch with Draper.
Carlos Alcalaz
ESPN Bet Odds:+155 | Tennis abstract odds:34.8%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 6 Ben Shelton (quarterfinals)
That’s right, the total title odds for tennis abstracts are 79% Sinner/Alkaraz and 21% of the other 126 men. The Alcaraz draw is dotted with interesting challenges – Opelka in the first round, and perhaps 2021 champion Danil Medvedev, and a quarter-and-noisy American Shelton – but you’re in doubt when you win 39 of the last 41 matches and have seven straight wins, as 22-year-old Alcaraz has. These two men are dramatically separated from the other members of the sport.
Iga Swiatek
ESPN Bet Odds:+270 | Tennis abstract odds:25.7%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 8 Amanda Anisimova (quarterfinals)
Remember when Swiatek pretended to be having a bad year? She was poor by Sweet’s standards – even before the Wimbledon title was run, she reached seven semi-finals and two finals – but that’s not because the funk was over. Swiatek entered the US Open with 28 of his last 31 sets, winning the tournament and returning to No. 1 where he spent most of 2022, 2023 and 2024, if Sabalenka lost before the quarterfinals (obviously unlikely).
Alina Sabalenka
ESPN Bet Odds:+280 | Tennis abstract odds:25.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 7 Jasmine Paolini or No. 9 Elena Rivakina (quarterfinals)
The defending US Open champion was a bet favorite before the draw, but her odds fell below Swietek after being handed a potential path for 2021 finalist Leila Fernandez in the third round. Sabalenka is the most reliable in the sport, with 10 semi-finals in the last 11 slams, but the repetition of the title in New York does some work.
Coco Gouf
ESPN Bet Odds:+750 | Tennis abstract odds:9.6%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 6 Madison Keys (quarterfinals)
The 2025 season was a 21-year-old roller coaster, losing six of 11 games with one point early, rolling the clay court season with three final appearances and her first French Open title, dropping four of eight games since then. She betrayed her again this summer, and she once again rocked her coaching staff. Her draw is difficult, but if you remove only the double fault, she becomes a competitor.
Former Champion
Novak Djokovic
ESPN Bet Odds:+1200 | Tennis abstract odds: 4.5%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 4 Taylor Fritz (quarterfinals)
The greatest men’s slam champion of all time has now become a major-only player at this point. His past two tournaments have been the French Open and Wimbledon. Of course, the 38-year-old played the semi-finals in both, so it’s hard to question his approach. He could once again become a favorite to win his quarter. He was loaded with Americans (Fritz, Francis Tiafour, Alex Michaelsen, Sebastian Korda) and amid a good change in pace, he didn’t land half of the sinners this time. (The sinner blew him away with a straight set in Paris and London.) Djokovic has nothing to prove at this point, but another final might not be a problem if he could kick the rust.
Naomi Osaka
ESPN Bet Odds:+1600 | Tennis abstract odds:0.8%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 3 Gauff (4th round)
The two-time US Open champions reached the final this summer in Montreal. In her first 1000 level final since Miami 2022, she cleaned up Jelena Ostapenko, Elina Svitolina and Tauson in the process. She appears to have rediscovered a high-level return game this year, 27-12 (6-4 against top 30 opponents), and at No. 23, she was seeded into the slam for the first time in nearly four years. She is preferred in every match, up to a potential meeting with Gouf.
Daniil Medvedev
ESPN Bet Odds:+3300 | Tennis abstract odds:0.4%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (4th round)
From the US Open in 2019 to the Australian Open in 2024, Medvedev played the finals with six of his 10 hard court slams, winning the US Open in 2021 in the process. However, he found life to be difficult in 2025. I spent most of my recent months outside the ATP Top 10 at 1-3 slams. This summer, he tried to rediscover his rhythm on the hard court, and instead lost to Alexei Popilin (at the time No. 26), Adam Walton (at 85), and Dalibor Svurtina (at 120). Will the magic return in New York?
Emma Radukanu
ESPN Bet Odds:+4000 | Tennis abstract odds:0.7%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 9 Elena Rybakina (2nd round)
The expectations of injuries and crushing have been squeezing 22-year-old Ladukanu since the 2021 US open title, Romp, but the atmosphere has improved. She ranked 35th in the WTA rankings. This is her best ranking since 2022. She wiped out Osaka on her way to the Washington semi-finals and lost the epic to Sabalenka, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 in her most recent match. Her momentum will be tested in New York. She may have to beat both Rivakina and 7th Paolini to get a rematch for Sabalenka in the quarterfinals.
Venus Williams
ESPN Bet Odds:+50,000 | Tennis abstract odds:<0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 6 Madison Keys (4th round)
Her two US open titles (2000, 2001) are older than many women in the draw, and she is less likely to prove than almost anyone on Earth. However, the 45-year-old appeared in Washington in July, slamming the Payton Starnes (at the time No. 35) and offered the track ace in the process. She is now the second oldest woman to win a tour match. She’s more hungry.
Other: Marine Silick (2014 Champion, +20000)
They also love New York
Madison Keys
ESPN Bet Odds:+1800 | Tennis abstract odds:3.9%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 3 Gauff (quarter-finals)
At 30, Keys has enjoyed her best season since 2016 – she has won 37 matches (since 2016) with a 0.755 win percentage (highest ever) and she, of course, won her first slam title in Australia. The two-time US Open semifinalist (and 2017 finalist) have reached the semifinals in just one of the last 10 tournaments, but her draws are pretty solid until at least the fourth round (Muchova or 21 different Linda Noscova… or potentially facing Venus).
Ben Shelton
ESPN Bet Odds:+2000 | Tennis abstract odds:1.8%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 2 Alcaraz (quarterfinals)
He lost to Australian sinners, Alcarazs in Paris, and again to the sinners at Wimbledon. Although still lacking in Shelton’s return game, his serve and his great offensive game brought him to sixth in the ATP rankings. He is becoming a consistent force in the slams, reaching at least the fourth round in five of his last six. It was a shame that Alkaraz landed in the quarter, but he was preferred in each of his first four matches.
ESPN Bet Odds:+2200 | Tennis abstract odds: 6.0%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 8 Alex de Minaurus or No. 9 Karen Khachanov (quarterfinals)
The 2020 finalist is well-consistent with his serve and suffering ability that he is reasonably upset (aside from the loss of Wimbledon in the first round) but he was 2-5 against his top 10 opponents in 2025, with one of those wins being an injury retirement against Djokovic at the Australian Open. That said, he won’t face a top 10 opponent until the oldest quarterfinals.
ESPN Bet Odds:+2500 | Tennis abstract odds:3.0%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 5 Miller Andreva or No. 10 Emmanavaro (quarterfinal)
It was a strange year for a 31-year-old. Outside of the slam, she was 32-13, winning five finals and three titles. However, since last year she finally broke through to reach the US Open Finals of the past year, she has only won five games in her first three of 2025. Her draw is easy to manage. Her shape? iffy.
Taylor Fritz
ESPN Bet Odds:+2500 | Tennis abstract odds:2.6%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 7 Djokovic (quarter-finals)
Like many others in the male draw, Fritz is hitting his head against the ceiling of the sinner and Alcaraz. Over the past year he is 53-17 for everyone else on tour, but 0-5 for Big 2 (total set: Big 2 12, Fritz 1). To put it further, he is a 0-10 life against potential quarterfinal foe Djokovic. Still, he serves just as much as those who are not named sinners.
Jack Draper
ESPN Bet Odds:+2500 | Tennis abstract odds:0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (4th round)
As his body works together, the 2024 US Open semi-finalist looks like one of the leading candidates to turn the men’s Big 2 into Big 3. He defeated Alkaraz in the Indian Wells and was 28-7 against Alkaraz and the unnamed Sinner in 2025. He has not much time to form his own path as he was able to face Canadian Gabriel Diallo, who also hit hard in the third round.
Others: Emma Navarro (2024 semifinals, +3300), Alex de Minaur (2 quarterfinals, +4000), Erina Svitrina (2019 semifinals, +4000), Belinda Bensick (2019 semifinals, +5000), Railer Fernandez (2021 finalist, +5000), +5000), +5000), Casper Ruud (2022 finalist, +8000), Frances Tiafoe (2 quarterfinals, +8000), Felix Auger-Aliasime (2021 semifinals, +10000), Beatriz Haddad Maia (2024 quarter (3 finalists, +15,000), Gael Monfils (2016 semifinalist, +20,000), Maria Sakkari (2021 Semifinalist, +20,000), Caroline Garcia (2022 Semifinalist, +40,000), Pablocarreno Busta (2 semifinals, +100,000)
The list of female candidates for 2025 is endless
Mirria andeva
ESPN Bet Odds:+1000 | Tennis abstract odds:8.3%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 10 Emmanavaro (4th round)
Progression rarely becomes linear. That’s certainly something Mira Andreva had to internalize in 2025. The 18-year-old won consecutive 1000-level hard court events in February (Dubai) and March (Indian Wells), beating Sabalenka, Swaiyet (two times) and Rivakina (two times). But she has been 17-9 ever since, and she has been trying to recover from Montreal’s nasty looking ankles for the past month. If she can kick the gear fast enough to beat the big blows Alycia Parks in the first round, her draw could turn out to be an advantage. But we will see what shape she has to offer.
Elena Rivakina
ESPN Bet Odds:+1000 | Tennis abstract odds: 4.8%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 7 Jasmine Paolini (4th round)
Sabalenka had to let out a small moan when she saw Ribakina’s land in the quarter. Rybakina’s form is up and down in 2025, and she is 5-5 at the US Open. However, she has won eight of her last 10 games, eight of the last eight and five against Sabalenka, including a 6-1, 6-4 Panmer in Cincinnati. (Of course, she may have to pass by Paolini first.
Victoria is a pocket
ESPN Bet Odds:+2000 | Tennis abstract odds:1.8%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 10 Emmanavaro (3rd round)
Sofia Kenin, Gouf, Rivakina and Osaka combined to win seven slam titles on the hard court. Mboko defeated all four on his way to the Montreal title earlier this month. Her merciless powers blew Kenin and Gouf out of their coats, and in three sets she also wore Rivakina and Osaka, making her calmness a different world for the teenager. She landed in the same quarter as Andreva, Pegra and Navarro – aka the “iffy form” quarter – and if she could handle the expectations and hype, she could have done her first big slam run in New York.
Amanda Anishimoba
ESPN Bet Odds:+2000 | Tennis abstract odds:1.6%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 2 Swiatek (quarterfinals)
Her incredible Wimbledon run ended with a 6-0, 6-0 splat against Swiatek in the final, but Anisimova is still making a big move in 2025, allowing her to finish for the first time in the WTA Top 10. Is there still gas in the tank? The 23-year-old has been 2-2 since Wimbledon and is 3-5 at the US Open. Can she play her path at least in the quarterfinal rematch with Swiatek?
Jasmine Parini
ESPN Bet Odds:+3300 | Tennis abstract odds:2.4%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 9 Rybakina (4th round)
After reaching back-to-back slam finals in 2024, the 29-year-old left in the slam 6-3 this year. However, she remained eighth in the world with five semifinals and two finals in the past six months, and her 3-0 record against Goff in that range could have set her well in the right draw. Instead, she landed in Sabalenka’s quarter. She dropped eight straight sets against the number one in the world.
Others: Ekaterina Alexandrova (+4000), Jelena Ostapenko (+5000), Barbora Krejcikova (+5000), Liudmila Samson (+5000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Clara Tauson (+5000), Vondrous’s Market (+5000)
Male breakthrough (and rebound) candidates
ESPN Bet Odds:+6600 | Tennis abstract odds:0.5%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 7 Djokovic (4th round)
Runes are both young (22) and insanity. He was 5-4 against his top 10 opponents this year, cleaning up Alcaraz in the Barcelona final in April. He was also 4-4 against players ranked outside the top 100, making it one in six events in 2025. He managed to beat Djokovic and Fritz and surge into the semi-finals.
ESPN Bet Odds:+8000 | Tennis abstract odds:0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 4 Fritz (4th round)
Sweet swing 19-year-old learned exactly how much grinding can be done on this year’s tour. He reached four finals from December to March, winning his first ATP level title in February, but is 8-10 years old since late March. And since beating Andrei Lubrev at the Australian Open, he’s gone 0-6 against his top 15 opponents. His game continues to simmer his appetite, but he needs to bring his feet back under him.
ESPN Bet Odds:+8000 | Tennis abstract odds:0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 2 Alcaraz (2nd round)
The 26-year-old Spaniard was outside the top 60 at the beginning of the year, but he charged on the 18th this summer thanks to his 11 wins (two against the top 10) runs in 17 games. He retired back-to-back in Toronto and Cincinnati after fatigue began, but he got some rest and excelled on the hard court, allowing him to test Alcaraz in round two.
Lorenzo Musetti
ESPN Bet Odds:+8000 | Tennis abstract odds:0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents: No. 5 draper (4th round)
Musetti enjoyed his career season and reached the French Open semi-finals, but he only played five games as he had to retire against Alcaraz in Paris due to a thigh injury. The draw doesn’t benefit him any. He must face the massive Giovanni Mpetosi Gazette in the first round. And if he survived it, he could see the draper in the fourth round and see the sinner in the dormitory.
Others: Andrey Rublev (+6600), Alexander Bublik (+8000), Jakub Mensik (+8000), Tommy Paul (+8000), Stefanos Tsitsipas (+8000)
