For the third time this year, Carlos Alcaraz and Giannik Sinner will face off in the major finals at the US Open on Sunday (2pm ET; ABC).
Alkaraz won the French Open in June, while Thinner won Wimbledon in July (and at the beginning of the year) in the final against Alexander Zverev.
Will Thinner win his fourth major hard court victory in a row? Or will Alcaraz follow up with another US open title in 2022?
Our experts place importance on how each one can separate their victory.
What can Alkaraz do to defeat a sinner?
D’Arcy Maine: Alcaraz held an incredible tournament and was the first man since Roger Federer in 2015 to reach the US Open Final without losing a set. He spoke openly about his desire to maintain consistency and his level and focus.
He also put in considerable effort this season to improve his serve. Sheesh, What a weapon it became. In the 84 service games of this tournament, he won all but two. Everything except two!
He dropped a serve only once against Djokovic, perhaps the best male tennis player of all time. Despite the results of straight sets in that semi-final, Alkaraz was almost completely unmatched and seemed to be rattled by a crowd of wild Prodjokovic at the moment, but his serve (towing by seven aces) continued to support him.
To defeat a sinner who is often prone to fail, he must bring all that consistency and focus, along with his incredible variety, and continue his service. The showman, who always seems to thrive when the lights are brightest and the crowd is at its best, has everything he needs to win the major title six on Sunday. he? Well, that might be a different story.
Bill Connelly: My answer is the same as before the French Open and Wimbledon finals: Go Big. When Alkaraz strikes the winner with 20% of the points against the sinner, he wins. He hit that mark in the final three sets of the French Open Finals, but he was only 15.9% in almost easy losses at Wimbledon. He was fully controlled at the US Open, avoiding errors and lapses and was able to hit the winner with 19.8% of his points. And a more controlled version of Alkaraz could have to hit 18% or 19% winners against the sinners to win. Anyway, the defense of the offender and court reporting is too good, so he has to take a shot. And if you’re not finished the points when you get the chance, he will crush you.
Simon Cambers: The dynamics of Thinner Alkaraz’s rivalry have been changed thanks to Thinner’s victory in the Wimbledon Finals. Alcaraz has to find a way to stop Sinner, who should have won French Open, as he has achieved six consecutive wins to strangle his head-to-head record.
It’s very easy: Alkaraz must work well. I’ll ignore last month’s Cincinnati game. This is hardly important as the proportion of first serve was important in six previous matches after the offender was finished five matches due to illness. In four of these, Alcaraz worked for over 60% and earned over 50% points in third serves in five of the six. The only thing he lost was the Wimbledon Finals – he was down 53% in his first serve. At this US Open, he was over 60% in five of his six games. If he can replicate such a percentage, it allows him to attack for the rest of his game.
What can a sinner do to defeat Alkaraz?
main: Well, first and foremost, sinners need to remain healthy. Due to the virus illness, the sinner retired from the final in Cincinnati after five games last month. The world’s No. 1 also required a medical timeout on Friday night, which was believed to have been an injury to his right arm.
After the match, he said it was “nothing too bad” and “so serious”, but he wants to make sure it fits as close as possible to the dynamic Alcaraz. The Sinner has been almost invincible on the hard court for the past two seasons. He needs to lean on his powerful blows, his ability to direct points, and his fourth round opponent, his AI-like ability to read the game and deal with almost everything, as well as his ostensibly comfort and confidence.
If he can bring him the highest level – we’ve seen it many times before – it feels like he has a slight edge.
Connelly: Land the first serve (or the second largest). Over the past year, both the sinner and Alkaraz have earned about 42% of the return points. Despite playing Reilly Opelka and Arthur Rinderknech (both earned at least 65% of the service points) in the early rounds and playing Novak Jjokovic (70%) in the semi-finals, Alcaraz scored roughly 43% of the return points in this tournament. It’s ridiculous when adjusted to match the competition.
However, he also scores 56% of his second-serve return points. He has broken 27 times in six games and 18 sets. He’s been ridiculously dialed in in the return game and it would be very difficult to create advantages elsewhere if the sinner can’t command enough advantages there.
Camber: Just like my answer to the first question, sinners need to work well. At the Battle of Roland Garros and Beijing, he was under 60% in his first serve, putting too much pressure on his second, allowing Alcaraz to take control from his return. More importantly, the sinner must be physically 100%. Otherwise, Alkaraz will crush him. He says he was fine after a medical timeout in the semi-finals, but the small hint of that vulnerability would have been unaware of Alcaraz, who might try to extend the rally as much as possible to test Italian fitness. Thinner is the best player in the world for a reason. He can maintain an incredible level throughout the match, regardless of his opponent. If there are any questions internally, he needs to start strong.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: Obviously, Thinner is a favorite given the huge success of the Sinner hard court over the past two years, but in the five-set classic, I feel that Alcaraz is about to win his second US Open. Alcaraz is still more durable and diverse than the sinners, and his serves are stronger during Cincinnati and the US open runs. These two young champions set a high bar for the rest of the ATP tour to try to reach.
main: I want to flip the coin here, but thankfully, I never have cash. A charismatic dynamo, Alcaraz, was impressed with me throughout the tournament for his consistency and the domination and progress of his service. The sinner, a clinical technician, is very solid and rock-solid. Even when he clearly wasn’t feeling his best Friday, he dug deep and found a way to win against Felix Auger Ariasime’s horrifying opponent. I really think this can go either way, but anyway, go to the sinner in 5 sets anyway.
Connelly: A few months ago, it was easy to assume that Alkaraz had advantages on the surface of nature, and that the sinner had advantages over the hard coat. But then the sinner came within one point where he bets Alkaraz with clay and defeats him relatively easily on the grass (by this rival’s standard). Did that mean half a multitude of sinners? Or does Alcaraz’s absolute ruthlessness in his six matches in New York suggest that he is about to turn the table right away?
I’m going here with four sinners – it’s hard to choose the guy who won a 27 straight grand slam match on the hard court – but wow, Alkaraz looks good. I almost want to be wrong and that this rivalry continues to go against our assumptions.
Camber: The sinner would have said that he would definitely win this, if that wasn’t two things, then the medical timeout he took in the semi-finals, and the fact that his preparation was affected by the illness he suffered in Cincinnati.
There is very little between these two. They turn each other over and usually bring out the best from each other, so you can expect incredible shotmaking. It sometimes comes down to gut sensations, and at least in the last two weeks, it feels like Alcaraz has an edge. If he can avoid the occasional dips in the form of which he suffers from, his high points will be higher than the sinner. We’ll go to Alkaraz with four tough sets.
