Arsenal had a record-breaking run in October, winning six games in all competitions without conceding a goal.
The Gunners’ dominance is built on one of the best defenses in the history of the Premier League, with David Raya having put the ball out of the net just three times this season and if this continues they will break Chelsea’s record for goals conceded in a single season in the Premier League.
Gabriel Magalhães has won the PFA Player of the Year award in recent weeks, Raya is chasing another Golden Glove and Julian Timber has emerged as one of the best right-backs in world football.
What is Chelsea’s record? Can Arsenal break it?
Jose Mourinho’s 2004-05 Chelsea side conceded just 15 goals in a 38-game Premier League season. Arsenal have conceded three goals in nine games so far, and at 0.33 goals per game, that means they have conceded a total of 12-13 goals, but things are not that simple…
The AI supercomputer presented three scenarios for Arsenal’s final total, taking into account fatigue, injuries, match conditions and the possibility of other teams adapting to their style of play.
They also concluded that subtle differences, such as individual mistakes and controversial calls, will add up over the course of the season.
Another factor that undermines their efforts may simply be their own talent. Arsenal are expected to win the Premier League by a staggering 13 points, meaning they have little else to contend with at the end of the season. For context, after winning the title last season, Liverpool failed to win any of their remaining four games, conceding nine goals in that time.
scenario | Expected number of goals conceded | explanation |
|---|---|---|
best case | 13-14 goals | Arsenal maintain current defensive superiority and remain injury free |
most likely | 17-19 Goal | Small regressions due to fixture crowding and natural fluctuations |
worst case | 25-27 goals | Vulnerability increases slightly due to defensive injury, fatigue, or change in tactics |
Prediction total: Arsenal will concede 18 goals in the Premier League in 2025-26
Given Arsenal’s potential to make significant advances in some competitions (currently fourth in the Champions League table and still in the domestic cup competition), fatigue and injuries are likely to impact on their ability to keep clean sheets in the second half of the season.
Arsenal’s depth has been an issue in recent seasons, with them falling behind Manchester City in 2022-23 after losing William Saliba to injury, but manager Bukayo Saka praised the current level of the group after spending more than £250m in the summer.
“I feel we have a very strong group this year and we have a lot of quality. We have already suffered a lot of injuries, but the players we have brought in have shown that we can all maintain our highest level,” said the England international.
“I don’t think I’ve been very good at that the last few seasons. But this season I got it and it really made me believe I could do it.”
