As the deadline for qualifying offers has passed and MLB free agency kicks off, right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease enters the market with one of the most perplexing records among top-tier pitchers in recent years. Over the past five seasons, Cease has displayed a mix of dazzling highs and puzzling lows across a substantial number of innings, leading to varied opinions within the baseball community about his value and future prospects.
At nearly 30 years old, Cease represents a divisive figure for teams seeking an elite starting pitcher. Some view him as a strikeout maestro with exceptional durability worthy of a lucrative contract rivaling other premier pitchers, while others see him as inconsistent and unreliable in preventing runs, raising doubts about awarding him a long-term deal.
A key positive for Cease’s appeal is his remarkable durability. Despite undergoing elbow surgery in high school, which once affected his draft stock, Cease has consistently started at least 30 games in five consecutive seasons—a feat rare in today’s injury-prone pitching landscape. Agent Scott Boras highlights this endurance, pointing out Cease as an exceptionally durable arm compared to many high-profile starters who miss significant time.
While durability is a major plus, no pitcher is exempt from injury risks. Cases like Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes show that extensive health history does not guarantee lifelong immunity from surgery or setbacks. Predicting Cease’s ability to maintain his durability through a new contract remains uncertain.
Beyond his ability to consistently take the mound, Cease’s defining strength lies in his strikeout prowess. Boras emphasizes Cease’s status as a “200-strikeout guy,” a distinction shared by only a few other elite pitchers. Cease boasts a 29.8% strikeout rate ranking him third among qualified starters in 2025. Over the last five years, he uniquely stands as the only pitcher with over 200 strikeouts each season, joining esteemed company like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.
Cease primarily relies on just two pitches: a 97 mph four-seam fastball and an 87-89 mph slider, which make up about 75% of his pitches. While there is speculation about diversifying his arsenal, these two weapons have been remarkably effective. Still, teams are curious how Cease will adapt as he ages and if his velocity declines.
Despite these impressive strikeout numbers and strong innings pitched, Cease’s most critical weakness is his struggles with run prevention. While striking out batters is flashy, a starter’s main job is to limit opponents’ scoring, where Cease’s record is surprisingly weak. This inconsistency in keeping runs off the board makes his standing as an elite rotation member questionable.
Industry predictions suggest Cease could secure a lucrative long-term contract, with several analysts forecasting deals worth between five to seven years and up to $189 million. If he signs such a deal, Cease would have the highest ERA (4.55) among free-agent pitchers who have landed nine-figure contracts—a rare and potentially risky anomaly. Typically, pitchers in this salary range have ERA numbers below 4.00.
Cease’s performance has fluctuated dramatically; after a dominant 2022 season when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting, he struggled significantly in 2023 before improving again in 2024. However, he fell off once more in 2025, delivering quality starts in only eight out of 32 games and conceding many more runs than one would hope from a top-tier starter. His strikeouts remain elite, but his ERA near 5.00 poses a major hurdle for Boras when it comes to marketing him as a true ace.
Ultimately, Cease offers a fascinating case study for teams weighing past performances against future potential. His mixed results challenge traditional assessments of risk and reward for high-priced starting pitchers. While his core pitching skills provide hope, his uneven track record injects a level of uncertainty into his next contract.
Looking at the history of big-money pitcher contracts, the outcomes vary widely—from franchise-transforming successes to costly mistakes due to injuries or decline. Where Cease will fall on this spectrum remains a mystery, making his upcoming free agency one of the most intriguing storylines in baseball.
Fan Take: Dylan Cease’s free agency is a must-watch because it highlights the balancing act MLB teams face between valuing strikeout talent and consistent run prevention. His unique blend of durability and volatility could redefine how pitchers are evaluated in the modern era, potentially shaping the future landscape of pitching contracts and strategies.
