Here’s a rewritten version of the content in my own words:
I want to extend my sympathies to Donovan Mitchell. Despite missing most of its starting point guard and several role players sidelined occasionally, his team is still pacing for 52 wins. Mitchell is averaging 29.9 points per game, slightly surpassing Larry Bird’s career best, and impressively shooting 60% from the field—a mark higher than career highs set by James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Kobe Bryant. Only Stephen Curry in NBA history has achieved both feats in a full season, winning MVP on his first try. If the 2025-26 season ended today, Mitchell wouldn’t rank high in MVP votes.
The MVP race this season is fiercely competitive. We have three former champions who are not only playing at their career peaks but are also having some of the best seasons in NBA history. In fact, three of the top single-season Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) ever recorded have come this year. None of these players, including Mitchell, rank within the top seven highest scoring seasons of the century.
As the season progresses, the MVP race will inevitably shift. Historic achievements are easier in shorter stretches like 15 games compared to a full 80-game season. Injuries and surprises are inevitable. With the season a quarter complete, it’s time to evaluate who leads the MVP race. Below are five early-season MVP contenders along with their current odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
5. Tyrese Maxey (+5000 odds)
Maxey’s scoring this season is undeniably MVP-worthy. Before losing to Orlando, Maxey averaged more points per game than anyone since Michael Jordan in 1988, including last year’s MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His 2025-26 campaign mirrors Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2024-25 season remarkably, with both scoring around 33 points per game on high shooting efficiency. However, Maxey is not quite on Gilgeous-Alexander’s level in other areas vital for MVP consideration. Maxey has extraordinary ball possession (over 106 touches per game, surpassing Nikola Jokic’s record), but his passing leads to fewer shot attempts per pass compared to Gilgeous-Alexander, making him less of a playmaking force.
Maxey isn’t as strong a defender and plays on a good but not elite 76ers squad. He’s carrying a heavy workload—leading in minutes and shot attempts beyond what’s sustainable for a guard across a full season. Despite these challenges, Maxey’s showing is impressive, placing him at number five among MVP candidates and likely satisfying Philadelphia fans.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
The two-time MVP is having career highs across points, assists, and efficiency. Milwaukee has adapted into a team built around him, which has elevated his offensive output drastically. He’s shooting over 75% within the restricted area, and the Bucks shoot below 44% on threes when he is playing. Advanced stats generally place him third in the MVP conversation, ahead of Luka Doncic in many composite metrics.
Defensively, Giannis has some slip-ups. Milwaukee ranks roughly average, struggling with rim protection despite pairing him with Myles Turner. While Giannis still makes highlight defensive plays, his overall defensive impact might no longer meet his previous Defensive Player of the Year standards. The Bucks’ uneven record (8-10) also doesn’t help his MVP case since traditionally MVP winners lead teams with better success. Nonetheless, this version of Giannis might be his best offensive form and could remain a top MVP contender in the near future.
3. Luka Doncic (+400 odds)
Doncic is excelling offensively and scoring at an elite rate, averaging 34.5 points over his first 10 games—a historic feat only surpassed by Kobe Bryant and James Harden this century. Although his 3-point shooting is down this year, it’s expected to improve. His inside scoring and efficiency are exceptional, with an impressive free throw percentage and shooting inside the paint.
Doncic benefits from teammates like Austin Reeves and LeBron James, who create opportunities and spacing. However, the Lakers’ defense remains a concern, limiting his MVP potential unless the team’s overall performance improves significantly. Doncic’s consistency and offensive brilliance place him solidly in the MVP race, but defense and team success remain critical factors.
2. Nikola Jokic (+140 odds)
Jokic is having arguably the best offensive season in NBA history, shooting 70% inside the paint, setting career highs in 3-pointers made, and maintaining a nearly unmatched true shooting percentage. He plays efficient ball with fewer shot attempts but produces over 29 points per game—a historic achievement.
His advanced stats are record-breaking, holding the highest BPM and surpassing his own previous benchmarks. Denver is on pace for 63 wins despite injuries, reflecting the team’s resilience with Jokic at the helm. Though not elite defensively, Jokic offers valuable positional defense, and his offense makes up for any shortcomings. This season likely sets him apart as the leading MVP favorite.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander maintains an MVP-worthy season that rivals Jokic’s statistics. His advanced metrics place him in the top three historically, even leading Jokic in some categories. Though he isn’t as flashy offensively as Jokic, his efficiency per possession and scoring impact is among the best ever, averaging over 47 points per 100 possessions.
He’s not as dominant a playmaker or defender as other finalists but elevates his team greatly. Oklahoma City functions well even without him on the floor, a rarity for MVP contenders, due to strong team depth and balanced offense. The Thunder project to finish with over 65 wins, which historically aligns with MVP selections. If his team maintains this pace, Gilgeous-Alexander could edge out Jokic for MVP honors.
Fan Take:
This intense MVP race showcases some of the best basketball talents and historic performances in the NBA’s modern era, proving the league continues to evolve with incredible skill and efficiency. For fans, it means thrilling basketball with multiple contenders pushing each other to new heights—shaping the future narratives and excitement of the sport.
