Conference Finals Showdown: Is Muller the Key to the Caps’ MLS Cup Dreams?

The MLS playoffs have reached the final four, featuring Philadelphia Union, FC Cincinnati, LAFC, and Minnesota United FC, who are now enjoying some downtime between matches.

San Diego FC’s impressive inaugural season continued as Inter Miami CF found their rhythm at the right moment, New York City FC managed another surprise victory, and the Vancouver Whitecaps triumphed in a thrilling shootout. This sets the stage for this year’s conference finals, featuring Miami against NYCFC and San Diego squaring off with Vancouver.

Looking ahead to Saturday’s matches, ESPN consulted Lizzie Becherano, John Arnold, and other U.S. Soccer analysts to assess the postseason performance of key players and predict who might proceed to the MLS Cup.

Eastern Conference

3. Inter Miami vs. 5. New York City FC
Saturday, 6pm ET

Star power: It may seem cliché, but Lionel Messi remains a central figure as long as he’s in MLS. His recent performances, including one goal and three assists against FC Cincinnati, highlight that he is pivotal for Miami. In the last seven games, Messi has directly contributed to 76% of Inter Miami’s goals, having either scored or assisted 19 out of 25 goals.

While Messi can navigate past defenders on his own, he has also demonstrated the ability to enhance the performance of his teammates recently. He has frequently set up Matteo Silvetti and Taddeo Allende, showcasing his field vision and playmaking skills.

X Factor: The decision to suspend Luis Suarez for one game in the series opener against Nashville SC caused quite a stir. Head coach Javier Mascherano opted to include the 19-year-old Silvetti in the lineup, trusting the young Argentine who has seen limited playtime since joining in August.

This gamble paid off, with Silvetti contributing a goal and an assist against Nashville and Cincinnati, displaying his speed and precision. He has quickly formed a connection with Messi on the pitch, which will be vital for Miami’s attacking strategy. If Silvetti can connect with Messi’s long balls and insights on the field, it could spell trouble for opponents.

Tactical considerations: The game’s outcome may hinge on Mascherano’s lineup strategy for Inter Miami. Though the manager noted the team’s “almost perfect” performances against Cincinnati and Nashville, adjustments could still arise if Suarez returns to the fold.

Mascherano previously chose to exclude Suarez from the starting eleven, believing that the matchup against Cincinnati suited Silvetti and Allende better. But could NYCFC present a different challenge? Miami appears to be in top form, with Messi displaying his brilliance, and Silvetti and Allende scoring with ease. However, if Suarez is back, he brings a different dynamic to the squad that Mascherano may want to utilize. NYCFC will need to strategize for multiple scenarios. — Becherano

Prediction

It’s difficult to foresee NYCFC disrupting the strong rhythm that Inter Miami has built over their past games. With Messi at this level and his teammates performing exceptionally well, Miami looks set to win the Eastern Conference at Chase Stadium. — Becherano

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FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF – Match Highlights

FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF – Match Highlights

Messi captured attention in Cincinnati, and now Inter Miami aims to showcase their skills before their home audience. However, he wasn’t the only standout during the conference semifinals; Silvetti justified Mascherano’s confidence in him, and Sergio Busquets made crucial saves to thwart Evander and can replicate that against a weakened NYCFC squad. — Arnold

It seems Miami will eliminate NYCFC from the 2025 MLS Cup. The Herons possess too much offensive strength for a NYCFC side that managed to hold on against Philadelphia but lacks the necessary firepower to challenge Miami. For NYCFC to have any chance, goalie Matt Freese will need to be at his best. — Jeff Carlyle

That’s precisely why I believe NYCFC can’t win this matchup; after narrowly surviving a tense 1-0 contest against Philadelphia, they face a team with Messi’s caliber. Lightning doesn’t strike twice, but NYCFC will need to pull off something extraordinary to stand a chance. — Cesar Hernandez

Freese will be challenged against Messi and his teammates, and without an extraordinary performance, the Pigeons may struggle to keep the score respectful. After watching Miami against Cincinnati, I believe nothing can stop Inter Miami from reaching the finals this season. — Megan Swanick

I’m not sure we’ve ever seen an MLS team reach such high heights as Miami in this postseason. Fueled by the previous year’s playoff disappointment and under Mascherano’s guidance, the club has consolidated its strength with top-tier offensive and defensive performances. Messi and company will be going head-to-head against New York City. — Joseph Lowery

Western Conference

1. San Diego FC vs. 2. Vancouver Whitecaps
Saturday, 9pm ET

Star impact: The Bavarians operate with quiet effectiveness. While Thomas Muller’s transfer made headlines, much attention also went to LAFC’s Heung-min Son during last weekend’s thrilling Western Conference semifinals. Muller’s stats aren’t too shabby, with nine goals and four assists across MLS and the Canadian Championship. Although he’s netted just once this season, his influence is clear.

No player in the LAFC game had more duels than Muller’s 14, as he created chances and compelled Hugo Lloris into key saves. His contributions have extended to the defensive end as well, ensuring he remains a crucial factor in Saturday’s semifinal.

X Factor: San Diego fans were excited to see Irving Lozano take the field during the latter half of their 1-0 conference semifinal victory over Minnesota United. The Mexican winger recently featured just once due to a hamstring issue, so any contributions he can make are favorable as he increasingly finds himself coming off the bench.

This stems from both Amar Pellegrino’s strong performances in his absence and Lozano’s previous disciplinary issue. While that’s behind him, San Diego may still need Lozano to step up more offensively in this crucial match.

With his speed, ball control, and solid chemistry with Anders Dreyer, Lozano has the potential to change the game—whether as a starter or a super sub that Vancouver would rather not see.

Tactical insights: The Vancouver Whitecaps approached the Concacaf Champions Cup final with a next-man-up mentality, and they’ll need to adopt the same approach to secure a spot in the MLS Cup. Triston Blackmon’s red card in the LAFC match will be missed, but manager Jesper Sorensen noted that they won’t contest the decision. Blackmon’s absence stings, especially since he just returned from injury, but the Whitecaps have learned to cope in tough situations.

However, this recent match was also costly, as Belal Halbouni suffered a knee injury, compelling Sørensen to reposition Matthias Laborda from left-back to central defense alongside Ralph Purisot, the latter shifting to midfield. This reshuffle places significant responsibility on left-back Jodrick Poupé or Tate Johnson, who will face off against Lozano, Dreyer, and Pellegrino. — Arnold

Prediction

Both teams have enjoyed remarkable seasons, but one must come to an end. San Diego’s dynamic offense, unencumbered by facing Minnesota United or the Blackmon-less Whitecaps, will lead them to create more opportunities, paving the way for the expansion team to reach the finals. — Arnold

San Diego certainly performed admirably throughout the regular season and playoffs, but experience could be crucial in the Western Conference Finals. The game will be close, but Vancouver’s players may have the upper hand in navigating the high-pressure stakes. — Becherano

Both teams exhibit notable strengths. During the playoffs, San Diego and Vancouver have showcased a commitment from non-star players to step up just as much, if not more, than their big-name counterparts. While the differences will be slight, I’m backing an in-form Sebastian Berhalter as a potential game-changer for the Whitecaps. — Hernandez

Blackmon’s suspension looms heavily over this matchup. Should the Whitecaps defender be available, Vancouver stands a solid chance. However, with Dreyer on a roll, the backing of the home crowd, and Vancouver poised to gain momentum, San Diego appears set to advance to the MLS Cup final in their inaugural season. — Carlisle

We are fortunate to witness such a competitive matchup in the Western Conference Finals. These two excellent teams showcase significant talent, but I favor San Diego due to their home-field advantage and Vancouver’s Blackmon absence. The hosts will find opportunities to attack and secure a spot in the MLS Cup. — Lowry

After a thrilling performance against LAFC, Vancouver is well-positioned to dominate in the playoffs. While San Diego may prove convincing, Vancouver currently has an exciting momentum behind them. — Swanick