On Saturday, the Golden State Warriors narrowly defeated the Phoenix Suns 119-116. The excitement in play-by-play announcer Bob Fitzgerald’s voice made it feel like Stephen Curry had just secured his fifth championship. Normally, Fitzgerald is very animated, but this win truly felt significant. It highlights how low expectations have fallen for the Warriors this season; a slim home victory over the Suns, with a 14-15 record, is being viewed as a win to celebrate.
The Warriors have struggled lately, losing 10 of their last 14 games. Their victory over Phoenix broke a three-game losing streak and coincided with Curry returning from a two-week absence, while also showcasing Pat Spencer’s promising play. However, the team’s overall struggles are evident. To be championship contenders, the Warriors need more than a standout performance from a lesser-known player; they require consistent excellence.
According to John Shuman from NBA.com, the Warriors have seen the biggest drop in shot opportunities in the league, slipping from +3.8 last season (4th best) to -1.1 this season (20th). Their turnover rate has worsened, offensive rebounds allowed have increased, and defensive rebounds have declined. Unlike simple possession numbers, shot opportunities reflect chances to score, and the Warriors’ negative shot differential is a major concern.
This season, the Warriors turn the ball over on 16.2% of possessions, up from 14.2%, and they give up 12.1 offensive rebounds per game—the fourth highest in the league. Despite a strong defense ranked third in the NBA, forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive boards, these small differences add up, eroding the Warriors’ former advantages and contributing to their current struggles.
In their championship years, the Warriors’ powerful offense masked many mistakes, including high turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds. Now, their offense ranks just 21st, and coach Steve Kerr acknowledges turnovers are a key issue holding the team back. Kerr is considering adjusting the offense to be more traditional and less reliant on risky passes, especially when Curry is off the court, suggesting more ball control and shooting opportunities for Jimmy Butler to stabilize play.
Ultimately, basketball today is a numbers game where creating more shot opportunities than the opponent is critical to winning. Until the Warriors regain their efficiency in creating and capitalizing on these chances, they risk remaining a .500 team rather than returning to their former dominance.
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Fan Take: This update is crucial for basketball fans because it highlights the evolving dynamics in the NBA where efficiency and shot creation are king. The Warriors’ current struggles could signal a strategic shift in how top teams structure their offenses, impacting the future style of play across the league.
