“You can only beat the team in front of you” is a common sports refrain, and it’s a useful lens for Sunday’s Super Bowl. The New England Patriots have engineered one of the most dramatic turnarounds in NFL history — from 4–13 in 2024 to 17–3 this year (including the playoffs) — a +13 improvement that tops the books for single-season year-over-year gains and eclipses the 1998–99 Rams’ Super Bowl-winning season.
A big part of New England’s resume is the unusually soft slate they faced. By combined opponent win percentage, the Patriots played the easiest schedule of any team since the 1999 Rams; their opponents went 113–176 (.391). That figure ties for the third-easiest schedule recorded over the last 50 seasons.
How the schedule came together (per the NFL formula):
– Six divisional games (home-and-away vs. Bills, Dolphins, Jets).
– Four games against one rotating same-conference division (this year: the AFC North — Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns).
– Four interconference games against a rotating NFC division (this year: the NFC South — Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons, Saints).
– Two additional same-conference games matched by prior-season standings (Patriots vs. Titans and Raiders).
– Week 17 matchup determined by prior-year standings (Patriots vs. Giants).
Everything aligned for Boston: the AFC East rivals they met were weak, both the AFC North and NFC South were among the league’s poorer divisions, and finishing last in the AFC East in 2024 handed the Patriots extra games against other bottom teams (Raiders, Giants, Titans) — teams that also underperformed. They even faced the Bengals when Joe Burrow was sidelined. Action Network’s Brandon Anderson highlighted another quirky stat: New England played 11 games this season against teams that either fired or didn’t retain their head coach, the most such games tied for any team in NFL history (matching the 1925 Frankford Yellow Jackets).
Some of the postseason path was also fortunate. New England beat the Chargers, Texans and Broncos to reach the AFC title game, but those opponents were missing significant pieces: the Chargers played without both starting left or right tackles (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt), the Texans were without top receiver Nico Collins (and saw Dalton Schultz exit injured), and the Broncos were forced to start Jarrett Stidham — his first appearance of the season — after Bo Nix’s absence. Those kinds of absences in playoff games are historically rare and provide a meaningful advantage.
Countering the “soft schedule” narrative, the Patriots did dispatch stout defenses in the playoffs; they beat Houston and Denver and now face a Seahawks team that entered the postseason with one of the league’s top scoring defenses. New England could become only the second team since 2006 to knock off three top-three scoring defenses in a single postseason.
Context also matters when judging opponents’ quarterbacks: Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Jarrett Stidham and Sam Darnold — the QBs New England faced in the playoffs — had a combined five career playoff wins going into those games. And some praise for rival rookies has been premature: Drake Maye, for example, has had a mixed postseason (five touchdowns, five turnovers), and his postseason EPA per dropback (-0.12) ranks as the worst for any Super Bowl quarterback since Rex Grossman in 2006, raising questions about claims that he took the “toughest road” to the Super Bowl.
What this all means: the Patriots’ weak regular-season schedule — and a fair share of opponent injuries and coaching turnover — clearly helped create an easier path to the playoffs and, arguably, the Super Bowl. How much those factors account for New England’s run can’t be pinned down precisely. Still, a title is a title: several past Super Bowl winners also had the easiest schedule in their title years (1968 Jets, 1972 Dolphins, 1974 Steelers, 1984 49ers, 1987 Washington, 1992 Cowboys, 1999 Rams, 2009 Saints, 2016 Patriots), and none of those championships are dismissed in the long run.
Seattle’s route to the big game had its own breaks — a lucky two-point attempt in Week 16, a relatively healthy roster, and playoff matchups where key opponents were also shorthanded — so both teams benefited from luck at times. Ultimately, the schedule story is an interesting piece of context, but if New England wins it all, the victory will be recorded as a championship regardless of how critics spin the path they took.
Fan Take: This debate matters because it highlights how much scheduling quirks, injuries and coaching turnover shape NFL outcomes — factors that can tilt a season as much as talent. For fans, it raises bigger questions about how we evaluate greatness and whether the league’s scheduling system should be re-examined to ensure a fairer path to the postseason.
