With the Patriots and Seahawks headed to the Super Bowl, I’ll be digging into my favorite betting markets over the next few days and placing a few prop wagers on the big game.
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I’m skeptical about New England putting up many points against this Seattle defense. The Seahawks sit atop defensive DVOA and are notoriously hard to score on unless you’re the Rams. Seattle enters the game healthy, with playmakers at every level, a tendency to play zone, sound tackling and very few mistakes — a combination that matches up well against a Patriots offense that’s had issues up front and doesn’t feature a truly elite receiving threat.
New England’s skill players are solid overall, but there isn’t one player who seems likely to give Seattle fits. The run game has gotten better lately, but it’ll be tested again in the Super Bowl. More broadly, the Pats’ offense this year has swung with their defensive performance: when New England’s defense has played below average, the offense averaged about 32 points and fewer turnovers; when the defense was above average, the offense fell to roughly 22 points and about 1.5 turnovers per game — a drop of roughly 10 points and an extra turnover.
In three playoff matchups versus top-10 defenses, the Patriots averaged just 18 points while coughing up nearly two turnovers per game, and in two of those three games they managed only one touchdown. For that reason, I prefer the Patriots to finish under 20.5 points.
Pick: New England under 20.5 points.
Another prop I like involves Patriots QB Drake Maye. His rushing has been the most dependable element of New England’s offense in the postseason — a primary reason they’ve scored — with 10 carries for 65 and 66 yards in the Charger and Broncos games, though he had only a few long runs against Houston. Still, I expect Seattle’s defense to limit his ability to pick up yardage with his feet.
Quarterback scrambles are much easier against man coverage, where chasing defenders can open lanes, and Maye often used that against the Broncos by stepping up in the pocket before taking off. In zone looks, by contrast, defenders stay in lanes and clog running lanes, making it harder for a QB to extend plays. I expect Seattle’s defensive structure to constrain Maye’s rushing production.
Pick: Drake Maye under 37.5 rushing yards.
Fan take: This matchup highlights how elite defenses can dictate game plans and limit even dynamic, dual-threat QBs, which matters for fans who enjoy tactical chess matches as much as highlight plays. If defenses continue to shape outcomes in marquee games, we may see teams emphasize versatile front-sevens and game-planning over purely offensive star power going forward.
