The $1 million Southwest Stakes is set to take place on Friday, February 6th, at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas, featuring 13 competing stallions, with morning favorite Litmus Test leading the draw. The race, offering a total of 42 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale, has attracted a competitive and valuable field.
Since 1991, the Southwest Stakes has produced three Kentucky Derby champions. Lil E. Tee, who finished third in 1992, went on to win the Derby as a long shot at 16.80 to 1 odds. Smarty Jones followed suit in 2004, and most recently, Mystic Dan in 2024 completed the Southwest-Derby double. This year’s 1 1/16-mile contest promises to be an exciting preview of the May event, with fewer than 100 days remaining before the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
Here is an overview of the entrants from the inside post outward:
- Landfill: Trained by Christopher Davis and ridden by Ramon Vazquez, he impressed by winning his second career start at Oaklawn by four lengths after breaking his maiden.
- D’code: The Speightstown colt trained by H. Ray Ashford Jr. will be ridden by Luis Saez. He made a striking debut victory by 8 ¼ lengths and earned the highest Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) of 107 in the field.
- Buetan: After missing a trip to Gulfstream Park for the Holy Bull Stakes due to weather, Buetan returns under trainer Bob Baffert, who can secure his seventh Southwest Stakes victory with this runner.
- Santa Fe Ranch: With a perfect 2-for-2 record in Kentucky so far but a disappointing fifth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, the Brad Cox-trained colt will be ridden for the first time by Flavien Prat.
- Circle Tap: Trained by Dallas Stewart and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr. for the first time, this longshot recently made his route debut at Oaklawn in late December.
- Liberty National: Bred by Maxfield and trained by Kenny McPeek, this colt placed second in the Gun Runner Stakes and won a maiden race over 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount.
- Spirit of Royal: Another Dallas Stewart trainee, he broke his maiden running routes recently and will again be ridden by Francisco Arrieta.
- Strategic Risk: Representing the formidable Mark Casse barn, this colt has won consecutive races at this distance, including the latest Smarty Jones Stakes. Javier Castellano, who has been aboard for his past two wins, will ride again.
- Bricklin: Coming off a strong 3 ¼ length victory following a speed duel earlier in January, this colt will have Jaime Torres aboard for the first time under trainer Rodolphe Brissett.
- Tactics of Silence: Also from Mark Casse’s stable, he was second behind Strategic Risk in his last dirt start at Woodbine.
- Baytown Dreamer: A winner on turf at Ellis Park but third when last switching back to dirt, the Mendelssohn colt will be ridden by Orlando Boca Chica for trainer Paul McEntee.
- Soldiers and Diplomats: With jockey Jose Ortiz returning for the first time since his debut win, this colt finished third in the G2 Jockey Club Stakes and looks poised for a strong outing.
- Sleep for Freedom: Trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel, he completes the lineup.
Analysis and Key Contenders:
At morning odds of 9-2, Strategic Risk stands out as a promising contender offering good value. This Noble Bird colt demonstrated impressive talent in his debut and has steadily improved, winning the Smarty Jones Stakes by 4 ½ lengths and posting a career-best 90 ESF. Trainer Mark Casse boasts a stellar record at Oaklawn, particularly in stakes races, supported by the proven partnership with jockey Javier Castellano. Strategic Risk has shown he can compete at the highest level on Oaklawn’s dirt and appears ready to make a significant impact.
At 12-1 odds, Soldiers and Diplomats represents an intriguing dark horse. Purchased for $950,000, this Army Mule colt broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga and exhibited strong performances in graded stakes races, including a third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His reunion with rider Jose Ortiz, who has a track record of success with trainer Steve Asmussen, is a notable advantage. Despite facing tough competition, Soldiers and Diplomats have the potential to upset the field and reward bettors looking for value.
With the scratch of litmus favorite, D’code is expected to be a major player. Although only making one career start, the Speightstown colt delivered an overwhelming debut victory by over eight lengths with a top-tier speed figure of 107, one of the highest among two-year-olds in 2025. His stride length and late pace ratings indicate he can effectively extend to the Southwest Stakes distance. While his class jump and lack of two-turn experience present challenges, D’code’s raw talent makes him a must-watch.
The remainder of the field boasts solid Equibase Speed Figures from races over similar distances, with Landfill at 85, Buetan 96, Santa Fe Ranch 81, Circle Tap 83, Liberty National 86, Spirit of Royal 85, Bricklin 84, Tactics of Silence 86, Baytown Dreamer 82, and Sleep for Freedom 86.
Top contenders by priority:
- Strategic Risk
- Soldiers and Diplomats
- D’code
Race Details:
$1 million, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes
Friday, February 6th – Oaklawn Park
Race 11 – Post Time 5:40 PM ET
3-year-olds – 1 1/16 miles
Kentucky Derby qualifying points awarded 20-10-6-4-2 for top five finishes
This article originally appeared in the February 4, 2026, Paulick Report Horseplayer section. Click here to add Paulick Report as your preferred news source.
Fan Take:
This year’s Southwest Stakes is a crucial early test for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, offering a glimpse into emerging talent and potential Derby contenders. The race’s high stakes and strong field make it not just a pivotal event for fans, but also a vital moment for the sport as it shapes the future of American Thoroughbred racing.
