Wagering on the Daytona 500 is a challenging endeavor. Over the last five years, NASCAR’s premier event has become increasingly unpredictable. William Byron is aiming for his third Daytona 500 win in a row, despite rarely holding the lead during his previous victories.
In 2024, Byron only took the lead on a late restart and led the final four laps—the only laps he led all day. Similarly, last year he led 10 laps but only assumed the lead midway through the last lap, moving from seventh to first after dodging a crash at the front of the pack.
Since Denny Hamlin led 79 laps to secure his third Daytona 500 win in 2020—a race notable for Ryan Newman’s dramatic late incident—no winner in the last five years has led more than 21 laps. Aside from Austin Cindric’s 21 laps led in 2022, no champion has dominated over 10 laps in the past four races.
Success now hinges largely on being at the right spot at the right time. Given how unpredictable races at Daytona and Talladega can be, it’s tough to pinpoint exactly where that spot is. You could lead for nearly 200 laps yet finish 35th after getting caught in a wreck right at the front.
Luck rather than driving skill or car performance has become a more significant factor nowadays. Therefore, if you want to profit from the Daytona 500 on February 15, a wise approach is to spread your bets across multiple drivers—including a few long shots—instead of betting heavily on just one or two favorites. Below is an overview of some top contenders and their odds, courtesy of BetMGM.
Favorite Contenders
Ryan Blaney (+900): Still chasing his first Daytona 500 victory, Blaney is arguably one of the best at Daytona and Talladega, with two summer wins at Daytona and nine top-10 finishes in 21 starts, though he also has nine DNFs.
Joey Logano (+900): Logano consistently leads laps at Daytona, having led in each of the last 14 races, but his last Daytona 500 win was back in 2015.
Austin Cindric (+1200): Alongside his win in 2022, Cindric boasts the best average finishing position (3rd place at 18.4) among the front-runners, with multiple top-five and top-10 finishes.
William Byron (+1200): Since leading 24 laps in a 2020 summer race win, Byron has led 35 laps across his last 10 races at Daytona and has captured two victories in that period.
Brad Keselowski (+1400): Though Keselowski is recovering from a broken leg suffered in the offseason and missed recent crashes, he’s expected to race in the Daytona 500. With 33 Daytona starts, he has one win and eight top-10s to his name.
Strong Mid-Tier Options
Denny Hamlin (+1800): Despite being a three-time Daytona 500 champion, Hamlin’s recent finishes have been lackluster (no better than 17th in his last eight starts), though this may reflect racing chaos more than a drop in ability.
Bubba Wallace (+2200): Wallace has crashed in three of the past six Daytona races but holds the best average finish (14.4) among active drivers, including five top-five finishes and two runner-up spots in the Daytona 500.
Noteworthy Long Shots
Josh Berry (+3500): Racing for Wood Brothers Racing with a partnership with Team Penske, Berry has one top-10 in five Daytona starts, making him a dark horse if you believe in Penske’s strength.
Erik Jones (+4000): Jones has finished in the top 20 in each of the last five Daytona runs, highlighted by his 2018 win driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Fan Take: Daytona’s unpredictability continues to make the 500 one of the most thrilling events in motorsports, where strategic positioning and luck often outweigh raw speed. This evolving dynamic keeps fans on the edge of their seats and makes each race a unique spectacle, reinforcing the race’s status as a must-watch NASCAR highlight.
