This venue cannot be won by shear force alone. It requires a level of precision and course management that prioritizes accuracy over distance. Here’s who Rick Gehman believes fits the bill:
Pebble Beach is not only one of the most visually beautiful golf courses in the world, it is statistically one of the best golf courses in the world.
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This venue cannot be won by shear force alone. It requires a level of precision and course management that prioritizes accuracy over distance. Microscopic greens have a high probability of being missed, increasing the value of all short game categories. At 6,989 yards, it is truly in a class of its own.
Winner: Russell Henry (+3100)
Finally, there is a golf course where Henry’s precision and accuracy will be rewarded! He routinely plays off the fairway and is one of the best approach players in the world. He started 2026 by gaining over 9 strokes on approach in six rounds and finishing 19th in Honolulu and 8th in Palm Springs.
Top 10: Daniel Berger (+425)
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The last time we saw Burger at Pebble Beach was in 2021, when they hoisted the trophy on Sunday afternoon. He has competed in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am three times and returned with top-10 finishes in all of them.
Top 20: Justin Rose (-108)
Rosie knocked the covers off the ball at La Jolla, earning eight or more strokes in two ball-striking categories and en route to a solo victory. Now, he’s made even more of a crack at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he has three consecutive top-11 finishes, including a win in 2023.
Top 20: Shane Lowry (+162)
Lowry will make his PGA Tour debut in 2026 at Pebble Beach, but he has played a lot of golf. He has made nine attempts since last year’s Tour Championship, including a Ryder Cup success at Bethpage Black. He improved his approach strokes in six consecutive DP World Tour starts and finished second here last year.
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Prop Parlay: Jason Day Top 10 + Ryan Gerrard Top 20 (+1023)
I don’t often participate in these types of bets, but I was surprised by the prices on two players that should set up really well for Pebble Beach. There’s no need to speculate about Jason Day’s course fit, but he’s gained 2.12 strokes per round in his 16 outings to this event, which is far and away his best course. Gerrard took time off last week but is one of the hottest names on the 2026 Tour, having finished in the top 11 for the first three years.
Prop: Winner to Birdie 72nd – YES (+105)
The 18th hole at Pebble Beach is one of the most iconic holes in the world and will be a great finishing point for this week’s event. This is a strategic par 5 where you can aim for a variety of birdies. Because the field is smaller and more competitive, there may be a “need” to go for birdie on this hole rather than playing it safe.
