2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Players, Rankings, Statistics, Course Preview
Pat Mayo uses Betsperts Golf’s Rabbit Hole Tool to dig deep into tournament and player stats to create early 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, highlight key stats in the model, and preview courses.
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Featured: Arnold Palmer Institute 2026 Picks, Research + Puerto Rico Open Research, Sleepers
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Lineup lock: Thursday, March 5th
Defending Champion: Russell Henry
You may be looking at this field and thinking…
That wouldn’t be a mistake.
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For the third time in four weeks, the PGA will field a nearly identical field. Fortunately, like the Genesis Invitational (and Memorial), there is a cut line this week that trims the field from 72 holes to the top 50 and a tie after 36 holes. It may seem trivial, but Scottie Scheffler had to play a slippery 8-foot shot on the 18th hole to start the weekend, providing some solid drama in his second Friday at Riviera. he got it done. And he was almost in the top 10.
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There are a few changes in this incarnation of the PGA’s Bay Hill Roaming Ensemble. First, Justin Thomas will be making his season debut after undergoing back surgery last year. In fact, he returned to TGL last Monday and looked surprisingly in good spirits. He hit two drives with a ball speed of over 177 miles per hour, which was faster than his average ball speed over the previous 18 months. According to JT, he’s already been practicing for a month and the injury shouldn’t affect the way he swings, unlike Will Zalatoris, who basically had to rebuild a new swing after a back issue to keep from breaking from his hip.
In addition, Lim Sung-jae has also returned from injury as the press has decreased significantly. Sungjae has not played at all this year due to a wrist injury, and unlike Thomas, there have been no reports about his rehabilitation. He was pretty bad last year, so I don’t think this is the right place to go all-in on Sung-jae against a stacked field in his first week back in competitive action.
As we saw with Xander Schauffele a year ago (and with many players this season), the short game, or touch and feel, in competitive tournaments is not something that usually comes back at the end because it can’t be replicated in practice.
Last year’s FedExCup Top 50 qualifiers Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau are currently in FedExCup points, and Alex Nolen is in the top 30 in OWGR, earning him a trip to Orlando as well.
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Chris Kirk and Billy Horschel are competing on sponsor exemptions, and more will be added once they accumulate final points from the Cognizant Classic. The final spot in AON Swing 5 will be awarded to the player who earns the most FedEx Cup points between the Sony Open, American Express, Farmers Insurance Open, WM Phoenix Open, and Cognizant Classic. Oh, and those who haven’t earned that many points to get into Aon Next 10 can also join the field. It’s not as complicated as it sounds, just a lot of moving parts. In any case, Patrick Rodgers and Saheth Segala should be locks to get through this qualification.
Finally, Texas sophomore Daniel Bennett is competing after earning an Arnold Palmer Cup exemption. The South African won the 2025 Phil Mickelson Award as the top collegiate player, joining the likes of Ludwig Aberg, David Ford, Jackson Koibun and Cole Hammer as API amateurs.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Statistics
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Mayo’s Key Statistics Rankings Powered by Rabbit Hole Tools
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Course
Average green size: 7,500 square feet
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Par 3 (4): Average distance – 217 yards
Three of them had bogey rates that were more than double their birdie rates.
Henry: 2 birdies on Thursday… then 1 birdie and 11 pars.
Par 4 (10): Average distance – 437 yards
The three most difficult holes are all par 4s, and more than a quarter of golfers play each hole for par or better.
Henry: 3 bogeys on par 4 on Thursday…only 3 bogeys left.
Par 5 (4): Average distance – 558 yards
Easiest four holes on property, including a layup on No. 16 (4.8% eagle rate almost beats 6.4% bogey rate)
Henry: Par on the 16th on Thursday, followed by eagle, birdie, eagle.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Past Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler -15
2022: Scottie Scheffler -5
2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11
2019: Francesco Molinari -12
2025: Russell Henry (+4000) beats Collin Morikawa by one point.
Final standings for those who gained at least 1 stroke on approach and something (anything) with putter: 1st-3rd-4th-5th-5th-7th-8th-8th–11th-18th
2024: Scottie Scheffler (+650, favorite) beats Windham Clark by 5.
Five golfers made four or more strokes of putts and finished in 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th and 8th place.
13 of this week’s top 20 players lost distance on the field.
2023: Kurt Kitayama (+20000) beats Rory McIlroy and Harris English by one point.
Three golfers made putts of five strokes or more and finished in first, second and eighth place.
Eight of the top finishers improved on putts from 10 to 15 feet (Scheffler finished T-4; he gained 1.1 strokes from 10 to 15 feet but lost 0-5, 5-10, 15-20, and 20-25).
2022: Scottie Scheffler (+2000, 4th on odds board) beats Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel and Tyrell Hatton by one point.
This week’s best putters 10th place (in order of this week’s best putters): 7th – 2nd – 20th – 20th – 26th – 5th – 9th – 20th – 20th – 9th
This week, 10 of the top 12 placed on par 3s
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (+1200, 2nd on odds board) beats Lee Westwood by 1.
Bryson won and was the best OTT golfer of the week, but three of the next six golfers lost their place in OTT that week.
5 of the top 7 players (including Bryson) lost their Prox:Total this week (mainly due to short irons)
2020: Tyrell Hatton (+5000)
He gradually deteriorated (68-69-73-74), but so did his condition. Hatton finished with seven consecutive pars on Sunday and showed a good performance until the end.
This week’s SG:APP top three all finished in the top 10 (in addition to Hatton, Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen also joined that list, both of whom bled more than 1.5 strokes on the flat stick).
The top six in ProxFG:200+ all finished with a share of 18th or higher (Hatton didn’t have a great showing here, but he and Im Sung-jae did well with buckets between 175 and 200, allowing them to finish in the top five without breaking the bank with real deep irons).
Note: Matt Every played Keegan a full game (65 in round 1, 83 in round 2). Of note, 11 of the top 12 players had close performances between 100 and 125 yards (nine of them lost between 175 and 200 yards or over 200 yards).
2019: Francesco Molinari (+2500)
Molinari shot 64 in Sunday’s tournament round, nine more than Saturday and seven more than Fitzpatrick.
The top nine players each earned a putt with a stroke of 20-25 feet or 25 feet or more (Molinari was positive in both buckets)
13 of the top 14 players got good drives on the field (4 lost in distance and 4 missed the fairway)
Six of SG:OTT’s weekly top seven companies ended up cashing in their top ten paychecks.
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2018: Rory McIlroy (+1600)
His 64 on Sunday matched his best of the tournament and was four spots ahead of Bryson. Rory was the only golfer in the field to shoot over 70 in all four rounds.
Rory and Bryson were the top two of the weekend and they were the two best in Prox:200+
McIlroy showed off his red-hot putter (+10 strokes on the field), with four of the top five putters of the week finishing T7 or higher on the final leaderboard.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader History
2025
69: Corey Connors (PM), Keegan Bradley (AM), Shane Lowry (PM), Christian Bezuidenhout (PM)
2024
67: Hideki Matsuyama (morning) and Justin Lower (morning, 3rd group out)
2023
67: Cam Young (AM), Kurt Kitayama (PM), Chris Kirk (AM)
2022
67: JJ Spahn (AM), Bo Hossler (AM), Billy Horschel (PM)
2021
66: Corey Connors (PM) and Rory McIlroy (AM)
67: Bryson DeChambeau (AM)
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitation Memo
This is your annual reminder to check the weather forecast before submitting your lineup or placing your bets. The wind can cause obvious waves to overlap, so it’s a good idea to take advantage of that. However, achieving this in 2026 will be more difficult. Since it’s a 72-player event, the tee splits aren’t as noticeable. Also, if conditions look really bad at some point during the day, we may run a split tee to get everyone on the course at the same time in the same conditions.
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A gust of wind could dramatically change the type of player they should be targeting this week. The wind is blowing by default on this course, and it may not have as much of an effect as you think. But then 2020 started. The weekend winds made the course a scoring death trap for the field. Matthew Fitzpatrick (69 in the fourth round) was the only player to break 70 over the weekend. Tyrrell Hatton became the first player since Geoff Ogilvie at the 2006 US Open to win by shooting two rounds of par or better in a weekend.
Two years later, on Saturday, Scottie Scheffler charged out of the pack when the leaders were in dangerous conditions. No one died at Bay Hill, as Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari both made comebacks of at least six strokes on Sunday in 2018 and 2019. This can provide a great live betting opportunity if you’re brave enough to believe in a big upset from someone who isn’t necessarily showing form at the moment.
There are water ripples in the eyeline of almost every shot, and sand is everywhere (84 bunkers). Not to mention, the ruff tends to be longer than the opening. deer hunter. That wedding scene never ending story It feels like a pulp novel.
Bay Hill actually plays for more than 7,466 yards. Due to the high water and continuous doglegs, the distance of the hole will be longer than actually measured on the scorecard. Especially when you consider that the average drive is more than five yards shorter than the average PGA Tour event (285 yards to 291 yards). Although there are only nine officially listed water hazards, moisture directly affects these nine holes. Fortunately, Bay Hill’s greenside bunkers are some of the easiest on the PGA Tour during the year, so bailing out to the non-water side of the green is recommended on long approaches. And in most cases, it’s easier to make mistakes in sand than in rough.
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Players must lay up from the tee to stay dry or be prepared to get a clear view of the green. And they even have a hard time doing it. Missing into the rough on the far side and taking the water completely out of play is a common result. For many years, driving accuracy was higher than the tour average. In the past five years, that has reversed. Despite only driving off the tee 66% of the time in the field, it went from 57% at Bay Hill to 61% on tour.
This may be due to the effect of signature events. Because this field is filled with the best players on tour, they know their iron game is good enough to hack it out of the cabbages, and they’re willing to sacrifice fairways for extra distance.
Bay Hill has far more approaches from beyond 200 yards than almost any other course, so the birdie-or-better rate from long grass is only about 10%. Something to note: All four of the par 3s fall into the approach bucket, so the numbers are a bit skewed.
Statistics, data and tools powered by Betsperts Golf’s Rabbit Hole tool
Like the par-5 sixth hole, the element of risk and reward still looms. He can ride to the surface to close the distance (RIP Bryson DeChambeau in this tournament) and go for a double, or end up carding an 18 like John Daly did in 1998. Since 1983, No. 6 has scored in double figures with 23 points. This is the most on the PGA Tour by a wide margin.
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Now, the only place Bay Hill isn’t actually that bad is if you get inside 10 feet. In 2024, nearly 90% of putts in the field will be made from within 10 feet, and over the past five years it has become slightly easier to make putts at that range. That’s probably why the statistically worse putters at Bay Hill show spike gains.
Thanks in part to the wind, countless international athletes have found success at Bay Hill over the years. I theorized that it would be even lower in 2024 since API is the signature event featuring all the best PGA players, and that’s exactly what happened. Lowry (3rd), Grillo (T8) and Ben An (T8) were the only international players in the top 10. Things returned to normal last season, with Corey Connors, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Ben Anh and Jason Day finishing in the top 10. All in all, getting accurate strokes off the tee really won in 2025.
Still, Strokes Gained: Approach has more than twice as much impact on top-five finishers as SG: Off the Tee and more than three times as much as SG: Around the Green. As the rankings expand to the top 20, the gap between SG’s results narrows. Looking only at the winners, SG: APP has 2.7 times more influence than SG: OTT and 4.2 times more influence than SG: ATG. Yes, SG: APP is always the most important stat to look at, but it tends to be more pronounced this week with so many approaches from beyond 200 yards.
A lot of that has to do with the par 3s, which average length over 215 yards. Rory McIllory, Nikolai Heigo, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick and Ryan Gerrard have been the best players on the par 3s in this range over the past 18 months.
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Bay Hill’s greens play very fast every year compared to most courses. The players who have gained the most putting strokes per round on fast greens over the past year are Jake Knapp, Sam Barnes, Denny McCarthy, Ben Griffin, Harry Hall and Matt Fitzpatrick.
Mark Leishman and Jason Day have won at both Bay Hill and Torrey Pines in the past 10 years. Other Farmers champions Harris English, Justin Rose, Luke List and Max Homa also had multiple top-10 finishes at Bay Hill. Tiger Woods has historically dominated both courses. That’s true everywhere except the Riviera.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Player
matt fitzpatrick — Fitz’s driving and irons are at an all-time high. He has never had a better ball-striking record in his career. The problem is that it coincided perfectly with the terrible putting growth. It’s not that he’s been bad all the time in 2026, it’s just that when he’s been bad, he’s been really bad. In the past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost eight putting strokes into the field. It’s not great, but it’s not the worst either. You should be able to manage it, right? no. He’s lost by more than a stroke when going negative in five of the past six rounds, and on top of that, he dropped a laughable SG:PUTT of -5.75 in one week at Riviera. Maybe there’s something wrong with his putting stroke. Or it could be a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Either way, I’m betting Bay Hill’s greens will return to normal levels. Fitzpatrick has competed in the event every time for the past 10 years, but he had never finished in the negative on the fast Bermuda greens.
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alex noren — 2026 is a mixed bag for Noren, as nuclear power policies were introduced in Europe after the PGA regular season ended. However, things are slowly moving in the right direction. He gets better with each start, even though the field strength gets stronger each time. Additionally, he has spiked his irons three times in the last seven rounds and earned at least one stroke down the field on his approach. His short game remains solid, and his closeness from the rough from 150 yards and beyond is the best on the field. If Nolen can clean up his driver, he will be able to compete in tough conditions.
2026 Puerto Rico Open
Course: Grand Reserve Golf Club (Coco Beach)
12 holes with water
winner
2025: Karl Willips -26 (3 behind Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen)
2024: Bryce Garnett -19 (Playoffs with Eric Barnes)
2023: Nico Echavarria -21 (2 behind Akshay Bhatia)
2022: Ryan Brehm -20 (6 points behind Max McGreevey)
2021: Branden Grace -19 (1 from Johnny Vegas)
2020: Viktor Hovland -20 (City 1 vs. Josh Teter)
pick
My early interests focus on Michael Brennan, Stephen Fisk, and Zach Bauchu. But a deep dive into the Betsperts LIVE leaderboard reveals some interesting and deeper options from players who hit great balls but couldn’t putt at the Cognizant Classic. The Paspalum greens at Grand Reserve are very slow so it should be easier.
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Statistics, data and tools powered by Betsperts Golf’s Rabbit Hole tool
PRO does not have shot-by-shot historical shot link data, but round-by-round SG: TOTAL is available. The players who averaged the most strokes per round against the field over the past five years are: Note: Most of these players only have 4 rounds.
If you put in at least 8 rounds, other names will make cameos.
Finally, if you want to take a more macro look and see all of Paspalam’s courses, here are the SG leaders: Round-by-round totals for the last two years (minimum of 12 rounds)
