{"id":43110,"date":"2026-02-12T22:49:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T03:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/2026\/02\/12\/2026-nfl-outlook-bears-patriots-among-teams-at-risk-of-a-major-regression-bears-and-patriots-flagged-as-top-nfl-regression-candidates-for-2026-nfl-braces-for-2026-shake-up-bears-patriots-pois\/"},"modified":"2026-02-12T22:49:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T03:49:07","slug":"2026-nfl-outlook-bears-patriots-among-teams-at-risk-of-a-major-regression-bears-and-patriots-flagged-as-top-nfl-regression-candidates-for-2026-nfl-braces-for-2026-shake-up-bears-patriots-pois","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/2026\/02\/12\/2026-nfl-outlook-bears-patriots-among-teams-at-risk-of-a-major-regression-bears-and-patriots-flagged-as-top-nfl-regression-candidates-for-2026-nfl-braces-for-2026-shake-up-bears-patriots-pois\/","title":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>2026 NFL outlook: Bears, Patriots among teams at risk of a major regression  <\/li>\n<li>Bears and Patriots flagged as top NFL regression candidates for 2026  <\/li>\n<li>NFL braces for 2026 shake-up: Bears, Patriots poised for steep fall  <\/li>\n<li>2026 warning signs: Bears, Patriots on the shortlist for NFL regression  <\/li>\n<li>NFL 2026 watchlist \u2014 Bears and Patriots predicted to slide  <\/li>\n<li>Regression alert: Bears, Patriots expected to stumble in the 2026 NFL season<\/li>\n<\/ul>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since 1990 there has always been at least a four-team turnover of non-playoff clubs reaching the postseason the following year \u2014 and the 2025 campaign may have been the most extreme example of that trend. The 2025 playoff field showed how wide the NFL\u2019s parity can be: five playoff teams bounced back from losing records (the most in 11 years), four division winners advanced with five or fewer wins, and three clubs climbed from the bottom of their division to first place. When teams can flip from worst-to-first in a single season, nothing is guaranteed.<\/p>\n<p>Here are five teams that look most likely to slip in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Chicago Bears<br \/>\nChicago played more tight games than any other team in 2025, compiling an unprecedented number of comeback and one-score victories. Much of their success came in close finishes \u2014 they won eight games by seven points or fewer (including the postseason) and set a mark for wins when trailing late \u2014 a style that commonly regresses toward the mean. Their cap picture is thin: OverTheCap projects Chicago to enter the 2026 offseason with about minus $9.5 million in \u201ceffective\u201d cap space after accounting for rookie class costs, which will limit upgrade opportunities. Offense was solid (about 25.9 points per game, ninth in the NFL) but the defense finished near the bottom third of the league in points allowed (roughly 24.4). Key defensive playmakers \u2014 All-Pro safety Kevin Byard (led the league with seven interceptions), Jaquan Brisker, nickel CJ Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Nahshon Wright (one of the NFL leaders in total takeaways) \u2014 could all be free agents, and the potential loss of those turnover creators (they combined for a large share of Chicago\u2019s turnovers) would weaken a defense that the team can\u2019t easily afford to retool. With their young quarterback still on a rookie deal, 2025 may have been the Bears\u2019 best window to make a deep run.<\/p>\n<p>Denver Broncos<br \/>\nDenver\u2019s 14 regular-season wins featured an astonishing number of come-from-behind victories \u2014 12 of those wins required erasing deficits \u2014 establishing a new NFL mark for comeback wins. They also tied recent high-water marks for one-score wins, a category that has bitten other teams before (the Chiefs\u2019 11 one-score wins in 2024 were followed by a collapse in 2025). On offense, questions remain around Bo Nix: while his counting stats were solid, several efficiency measures and yards-per-attempt placed him in the lower tier among qualifying quarterbacks, and he was coming off an ankle fracture \u2014 all reasons to worry about sustained performance. Denver\u2019s defense should remain a strength with Vance Joseph back and most starters in place, but offensive uncertainty around Nix means the Broncos\u2019 record could look quite different next year.<\/p>\n<p>Pittsburgh Steelers<br \/>\nPittsburgh captured the AFC North in 2025 with Aaron Rodgers starting, but Rodgers will be 43 in December and is due to hit free agency; the hiring of Mike McCarthy as head coach makes a Rodgers return more likely, but it isn\u2019t guaranteed. The roster lacks proven receiving depth beyond DK Metcalf, so even if Rodgers does come back he will be older and more fragile. The team projects to have roughly $39.3 million in cap space, which could allow for upgrades, but their realistic ceiling with an aging quarterback is probably around a 10\u20137 season \u2014 and an injury that forces in Will Howard or Mason Rudolph as the starter would likely produce a sharp drop-off.<\/p>\n<p>New England Patriots<br \/>\nNew England\u2019s 2025 AFC title team finished 14\u20133 against the league\u2019s softest strength of schedule (.391 opponents\u2019 win percentage), the weakest since the 1999 Rams. CBS research found that 11 of their 17 regular-season opponents won\u2019t have the same head coach in 2026, tying an NFL record for head-coaching turnover among opponents \u2014 a reflection of how favorable their 2025 slate was. Their postseason road was also aided by opponents dealing key injuries (Chargers missing starting tackles, Texans without top receiving targets, Broncos forced to start Jarrett Stidham for an injured Bo Nix), and the Patriots were beaten convincingly by a healthy Seahawks in the Super Bowl, 29\u201313. It\u2019s easy to envision New England losing four or five regular-season wins if they face a much tougher schedule and more intact opponents next year.<\/p>\n<p>Philadelphia Eagles<br \/>\nPhiladelphia\u2019s offseason and coaching situation is unsettled after a drop-off from Super Bowl winners in 2024 to a Wild Card exit in 2025. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has stayed on for now, but the staff saw turnover \u2014 offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and long-time offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland departed, and secondary coach Christian Parker left for Dallas; the Eagles promoted Sean Mannion to offensive coordinator. On the field, the offense cooled: the rushing attack fell from second in the league in 2024 (about 173.9 rushing yards per game) to 18th in 2025 (roughly 116.9), and Jalen Hurts posted career lows for yards per attempt (about 7.1) and a below-par completion rate (64.8%). If the new scheme and play-caller can\u2019t restore Hurts and the run game, Philly could be facing another down year.<\/p>\n<p>Fan Take<br \/>\nThis kind of widespread turnover matters because it keeps every NFL season unpredictable \u2014 teams can surge or collapse year to year, which fuels storylines, betting swings and roster urgency. For fans, that means every offseason decision (contracts, coaching hires, medical recoveries) can meaningfully reshape title hopes and keeps the league compelling and unsettled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since 1990 there has always been at least a four-team turnover of non-playoff clubs reaching the postseason the following year \u2014 and the 2025 campaign may have been the most extreme example of that trend. The 2025 playoff field showed how wide the NFL\u2019s parity can be: five playoff teams bounced back from losing records [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[859],"tags":[860],"class_list":{"0":"post-43110","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-nfl"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43110"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43110\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportsdaily.news\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}