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Thursday’s MLB schedule features five games, including some doubleheaders. Notably, the Braves and Phillies will face off twice, with the makeup game starting at 1:05pm ET and the second game at 6:45pm ET. Both teams will rely on star pitchers Chris Sale and Zach Wheeler, who finished first and second in the 2024 NL Cy Young voting, making their duel a focal point for MLB prop bets. Bets may focus on various outcomes like runs allowed or strikeouts, with Sale and Wheeler sharing a common prop line of 17.5 outs. The available betting options are somewhat limited on Thursday, but sportsbook promotions, including one from betMGM, provide some value.
One popular strategy for Thursday’s MLB betting is targeting pitcher outs, with opportunities for value despite the small number of games. Sportsline’s computer model, which simulates games 10,000 times, has an impressive 56% success rate on top rated MLB picks and a strong record for home run props. The model’s predictions for Thursday include three top pitcher out picks that offer combined +408 odds, promising high returns on a $100 bet. You can also explore the best home run props for Thursday’s games.
Top pitcher out prop picks for Thursday include:
– Chris Sale with 17.5 or more outs (-120)
– Zach Wheeler with more than 17.5 outs (-125)
– Ryan Gust with fewer than 15.5 outs (-185)
– A parlay of these picks offers +408 odds
Chris Sale, despite a slow start, has recently shown improvement, averaging over 6 innings (20 outs) in his last five starts. With the added strain of a doubleheader, managers may lean more on their starters, boosting Sale’s chances of exceeding 17.5 outs. The model projects Sale to pitch around 5.9 innings or 17.7 outs, making this a strong play.
Zach Wheeler similarly benefits from the doubleheader scenario and his history of pitching deep into games. In four of his last five starts at Atlanta, Wheeler has surpassed 17.5 outs, maintaining a low opponent batting average while facing several strong hitters. He ranks third in the NL with 70.2 innings pitched this season and has consistently gone beyond 18 outs in his recent starts. The model forecasts Wheeler to pitch 6 innings, or 18 outs, on Thursday.
On the other hand, Houston rookie Ryan Gust has struggled as a starter despite excelling in relief. His high ERA and difficulty keeping runners off base have limited his outs, as he only exceeded 15 outs once in six starts. Due to this, the model recommends taking the under 15.5 outs prop for Gust.
For fans wanting more pitcher out prop picks, Sportsline offers comprehensive MLB player prop projections. You can also check out top MLB picks from analysts like Matt Severance and Jacob Fetner, who have solid records this season.
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Fan Take: This matchup shines a spotlight on two elite pitchers, Sale and Wheeler, whose performances could greatly impact betting markets and game outcomes. For baseball fans, these duels highlight the strategic depth of the sport, especially in high-stakes doubleheader scenarios where pitching depth is crucial.
