After last Sunday’s wild shootout between the Bears and Panthers that produced 96 combined points, you can bet Bears “Overs” are getting heavy backing.
Not surprisingly, BetMGM’s John Ewing posted Friday morning that 87% of wagers on Bears-Vikings are on the Over. Eighty-seven percent. Hearing that kind of lopsided action makes me want to lean the opposite way.
I only make recommendations after checking my work with other handicappers, oddsmakers and trusted bettors. The people who succeed in this game understand the nuances — the how, what and why — and that’s the standard I aim for here. This column won’t be a flood of picks or long parlays; I’ll share only the plays I like most and ones I’m personally wagering on.
Let’s dig in.
(2026 Record: 3-5-1, -2.5 units)
Ohio: I wrote about this earlier in the week — word is QB1 Nick Poulos, currently listed as questionable, will not play. Backup Matt Vezza is also banged up. The number moved from South Alabama -4.5 to -7 on Tuesday, and some of the +7 action has already been taken down. I expect Poulos to be officially ruled out tomorrow, which should push the line back to -7 or higher. Look for a -6.5 and take it.
Sammy P’s Pick: South Alabama (-6.5)
Texas Tech feels uneasy right now. Their defense isn’t the same as last year and coach Joey McGuire has been rotating in Thomas Castellanos under center more frequently, which undermines confidence in starter Will Hammond. Former bookmaker Ed Salmons told me he grabbed Houston +8.5 at the opener, and there’s been smart money supporting the Cougars throughout the week.
Sammy P’s Pick: Houston (+7.5)
I was inclined to take Ole Miss as the home underdog before LSU’s injury report stirred things up. LSU initially listed QB Sam Leavitt as doubtful Wednesday night, sending Ole Miss from +3 down to as low as +1 before the price bounced back to +3. Leavitt is now questionable but expected to play by most. I still like Ole Miss getting points — their offense is dangerous and I think the Rebels’ defense can slow LSU. Also, don’t be surprised if Lane Kiffin goes for two at the end.
Sammy P’s Pick: Ole Miss (+3)
Yes, the Titans haven’t impressed, but Philadelphia’s offense left a lot to be desired last Sunday — the Eagles only recorded 10 first downs against Washington. This matchup looks like it could turn into a grind, and I trust Robert Salah to devise a game plan to limit Jalen Hurts’ strengths. You might hate the pick if Philly jumps out to an early lead, but I’m taking Tennessee and the seven points.
Sammy P’s Pick: Titans (+7)
Around the office this week people are overreacting — some think the Chiefs are title contenders and the Colts are toast. Sure, Patrick Mahomes looked good returning from his ACL/LCL tear, but 168 of his 184 passing yards were after the catch, which is eye-opening. The Colts were pummeled by Baltimore, yet if they can get Jonathan Taylor going early they should be competitive on Sunday night.
Sammy P’s Pick: Colts (+6.5)
Fan Take: These lines and injury updates matter because they can dramatically shift betting markets and game plans; a late quarterback scratch or a sudden wave of public money can flip value in a hurry. For NFL fans, that volatility keeps things interesting and can change playoff narratives or coaching decisions in ways that ripple through the season.
Source: www.foxsports.com
