Results and key moments will be shared once available. This piece will be updated after the official outcome, but the initial pre-fight prediction below will stay as is.
Charles Jourdain’s shift down to the bantamweight division has significantly impacted the direction of his UFC career. Meanwhile, Marlon Vera is aiming to alter his own trajectory.
The two fighters will face off on Saturday during the UFC 331 preliminary card at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Vera comes in ranked No. 10 in the UFC bantamweight division, while Jourdain carries momentum with a three-fight winning streak. The prelims start at 7 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Athlon’s UFC 331 viewing guide includes full fight card details and streaming info. Dana White will also award a $50,000 “Proper Chaos” bonus to one standout performer on the card.
Jourdain holds an 18-8-1 record, boasting eight wins by knockout and seven by submission. Since dropping from featherweight to 135 pounds, he has secured submission wins over Victor Henry and Davey Grant, along with a unanimous decision victory against Kyler Phillips in April. The Phillips fight marked Jourdain’s third consecutive win in bantamweight competition.
Vera, however, has a more extensive UFC resume. The 33-year-old sports a 23-12-1 record with eight knockouts and ten submissions. He has challenged for the UFC bantamweight title, knocked out former champions Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar, and recorded a stoppage win over rising star Sean O’Malley. Still, Vera arrives at UFC 331 on a four-fight losing streak, having dropped decisions to O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, Aiemann Zahabi, and David Martinez.
This matchup presents a classic scenario of rising momentum versus seasoned experience.
A.I. Prediction Summary
Athlon Sports’ MMA prediction model assesses seven categories without factoring in betting lines.
Bantamweight bout, scheduled for three rounds.
Model Analysis
The most noticeable statistical difference is fight tempo. Jourdain averages 5.36 significant strikes landed per minute and absorbs 4.11, while Vera lands 4.18 per minute and absorbs 5.34. Jourdain also boasts a 57% significant-strike defense rate compared to Vera’s 50%.
This is crucial because Vera often starts fights cautiously, seeking impactful counters, kicks, and late momentum surges. Such a strategy is riskier in a short three-round fight when facing an opponent like Jourdain, who maintains steady volume.
Jourdain’s performance at bantamweight shows growth beyond striking. He submitted Henry and Grant with guillotine chokes and handled Kyler Phillips’ wrestling effectively in April, despite Phillips’ early takedown success. Jourdain stayed active defensively and eventually dominated the striking exchanges, earning Fight of the Night honors.
Vera still carries dangerous finishing abilities, with 18 finishes across 23 wins, including 10 submissions, along with powerful kicks, elbows, and opportunistic grappling. His toughness and experience are valuable assets—he’s fought multiple five-round bouts and shared the Octagon with top names like O’Malley, Cruz, José Aldo, Cory Sandhagen, and Figueiredo.
Based on these factors, the model gives Vera the advantage in Experience and Intangibles categories. However, Jourdain leads in Style, Recent Form, Damage output, and Cardio endurance.
Prediction Breakdown
| Category | Charles Jourdain | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Style (25%) | 92 | 87 |
| Recent (20%) | 97 | 70 |
| Resume (15%) | 85 | 97 |
| Damage (15%) | 90 | 87 |
| Weight (10%) | 95 | 92 |
| Cardio (10%) | 93 | 91 |
| Intangibles (5%) | 89 | 96 |
| Weighted Score | 92.3 | 85.4 |
Prediction: Charles Jourdain by unanimous decision, with 67% confidence in the winner and 61% confidence in the decision method. The most probable alternative outcome is Marlon Vera winning via TKO.
The deciding factor hinges on Jourdain’s high activity rate. If he keeps up his current bantamweight pace, the model predicts he will consume significant fight time, forcing Vera to spend too much of the bout waiting for a momentum-shifting opportunity.
While Vera’s record makes him perilous even when behind on points—thanks to his kicks, knees, and elbows capable of rapidly changing fights—Jourdain’s recent successes at bantamweight and relentless pressure give him the edge.
Experience makes this match-up competitive, but recent form favors Jourdain.
Athlon’s UFC 2026 schedule monitors upcoming events, and the team’s analysis of Joshua Van versus Alexandre Pantoja previews Saturday’s flyweight title contest.
Prediction Model Formula
Each fighter is rated from 1 to 100 in seven categories, weighted as follows:
| Category | Weight |
|---|---|
| Style | 25% |
| Recent Form | 20% |
| Resume | 15% |
| Damage | 15% |
| Weight | 10% |
| Cardio | 10% |
| Intangibles | 5% |
For more detailed MMA analytics, check out Brian Mazique’s F.I.G.H.T. System glossary.
Fan Take: This fight highlights a thrilling clash between a rising talent hitting his stride and a seasoned vet fighting to reclaim former glory—moments like these are what keep fans hooked on MMA. How Jourdain’s pressure style matches up against Vera’s patience and power could signal a shift in the bantamweight division’s pecking order, making it an unmissable bout for fight enthusiasts.
Source: sports.yahoo.com
