The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup kicks off in 203 days, with six spots still remaining for teams through the Intercontinental and European Playoffs.
In March, two teams will earn their chances at the tournament, which will be hosted in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, via a playoff in Mexico. Meanwhile, 16 European countries—among them four-time champions Italy—will battle for the last four UEFA spots. The journey is now set for the 22 nations vying to participate in next summer’s finals.
A draw at FIFA’s Zurich headquarters on Thursday finalized the playoff lineup. Which teams can start preparing for North America, and which will face the grueling path to the world’s premier soccer event?
With the matchups confirmed, here are ESPN’s insights.
European Playoffs
The UEFA playoffs in March 2026 will determine the last four spots for the World Cup, as there’s no qualification route through FIFA’s inter-confederation playoffs.
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Sixteen teams will participate in the UEFA Playoffs, comprising the 12 runners-up from the group stage and the top four UEFA Nations League group winners who did not finish among the top two in the World Cup qualifiers. Teams will be sorted into four pots based on their FIFA rankings, with the Nations League winners placed in pot four. Each route will consist of four teams competing in single-elimination semi-finals and finals for a World Cup berth.
The semi-finals are scheduled for March 26th, with the final set for March 31st.
Path 1: Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Semi-final 1: Italy vs. Northern Ireland: Italy faces another playoff challenge after being eliminated at this hurdle in both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups but should feel optimistic about their matchup against Northern Ireland in the semi-finals.
Although Michael O’Neill’s squad came in second to Norway during qualifying, Italy’s stronger team is expected to overcome past disappointments against Sweden (2018) and North Macedonia (2022) in previous playoffs.
Winner: Italy
Semi-final 2: Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wales’ coach Craig Bellamy has emphasized the importance of defeating North Macedonia in Cardiff to secure their semi-final home game, a situation which plays to their advantage. A strong performance by their passionate fans should motivate them further.
Winner: Wales
Final: Wales vs. Italy: Despite holding the 12th position in FIFA rankings, Italy lacks a consistent goal-scorer and struggles against tough defenses.
If key players such as Sandro Tonali and Giacomo Raspadori are fit, Italy might prevail, but Wales’ home advantage could lead to heartbreak for the Azzurri in the final. Prediction: Wales advances
Path 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Albania
Semi-final 1: Ukraine vs. Sweden: Although Ukraine enjoys home advantage, the ongoing conflict suggests they may need to play in neutral Poland, possibly favoring Sweden.
Sweden’s unfortunate qualifying campaign saw them finish last in Group B, but their success in the Nations League keeps their World Cup dreams alive, with key players like Alexander Isak looking to capitalize on this opportunity.
Winner: Sweden
Semi-final 2: Poland vs. Albania: Poland usually qualifies for major tournaments but struggles in crucial matches. Albania, managed by Sylvinho, brings a spirited and organized approach to the game, and could capitalize on Poland’s weaknesses.
Winner: Albania
Final: Sweden vs. Albania: Albania’s potential to upset their opponents makes for an intriguing final. Should Sweden succeed and earn home advantage, their attacking prowess makes them formidable.
Prediction: Sweden advances
Path 3: Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo
Semi-final 1: Türkiye vs. Romania: Türkiye enters this matchup confidently after a strong performance in their group stage. With top talents emerging, they are considered favorites against an unpredictable yet talented Romania under Mircea Lucescu.
Winner: Türkiye
Semi-final 2: Slovakia vs. Kosovo: Kosovo brings a surprising strength that belies their FIFA ranking, previously edging past stronger teams during qualifying. Slovakia’s inconsistent performances create an interesting dynamic in this matchup.
Winner: Kosovo
Final: Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Türkiye is expected to be the favorite, but Kosovo’s drive and determination to qualify for their first World Cup could prove crucial.
Prediction: Kosovo advances
Path 4: Denmark, North Macedonia, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland
Semi-final 1: Denmark vs. North Macedonia: Denmark is favored in this encounter, but their previous World Cup elimination remains fresh. North Macedonia has the potential for an upset, having surprised before against larger teams.
Winner: North Macedonia
Semi-final 2: Czech Republic vs. Republic of Ireland: The Czech Republic faced unexpected challenges in their group but managed to secure a playoff spot. Meanwhile, Ireland’s incredible performance against Portugal shows they have the momentum to succeed.
Winner: Republic of Ireland
Final: North Macedonia vs. Republic of Ireland: Home crowd support in Dublin could tip the scales in favor of Ireland, who may face tough competition from North Macedonia’s individual talents.
Prediction: Republic of Ireland advances
Intercontinental Playoffs
The last two qualifying teams will emerge from playoffs in March, featuring six countries: one from each federation excluding UEFA, plus an additional spot for the host federation, Concacaf.
The top two nations in the FIFA world rankings will be seeded and move directly to the finals. The remaining four countries will be drew into semi-finals, where they will complete for the final two spots.
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New Caledonia or Jamaica vs. Democratic Republic of Congo
Jamaica will be facing New Caledonia in a semi-final, and it would be a significant surprise if they miss out on a final against the Democratic Republic of Congo.
New Caledonia is ranked 149th in FIFA standings, the lowest in the playoffs, but their coach remains optimistic about their qualification chances.
Jamaica’s previous hopes for automatic qualification were dashed following a goalless draw with Curaçao, resulting in coach Steve McClaren’s resignation. Jamaica should prevail over New Caledonia and face Democratic Republic of Congo, who bring depth and talent to the competition.
Prediction: Democratic Republic of Congo progresses
Bolivia or Suriname vs. Iraq
Iraq has successfully made it to the intercontinental playoffs after winning their Asian playoff against the United Arab Emirates, with a close finishing touch of a penalty in stoppage time. They will face Bolivia in the final round.
Composed mostly of players based in the Middle East, Iraq’s squad is guided by former Australian coach Graham Arnold.
While Suriname’s roster consists of players predominantly from Europe, Bolivia’s team is solid, claiming a significant win against Brazil recently. If it comes down to Iraq and Bolivia, the high altitude experience could benefit Bolivia in their quest for World Cup qualification.
Prediction: Bolivia advances
