The revamped NASCAR playoff format will return to a 10-race Chase setup, but it will change how drivers approach racing. The new system places greater value on consistent performance rather than just winning and quickly advancing.
As a result, consistency is expected to play a bigger role in power rankings as well.
Below are my projected 2026 preseason power rankings, with the preseason race set for Sunday at Bowman Gray Stadium, weather permitting.
I’ll break down why I believe these racers are likely to secure playoff spots and potentially contend for the championship.
On the cusp: Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece, Shane Van Gisbergen, Bubba Wallace
10. Alex Bowman
Bowman ended the 2025 regular season in ninth place and barely qualified for the playoffs without securing a win. This year, however, he should feel less pressure as he races more freely during his contract year with Hendrick Motorsports.
9. Joey Logano
As a three-time Cup champion who excels within the system, Logano is not expected to be hindered by the new format. He was disappointed with last season’s results, but as an even-year driver, 2026 could be his year to bounce back strong.
8. Tyler Reddick
Driving for 23XI Racing, Reddick didn’t win in 2025 but made the playoffs through steady performance, finishing seventh in the regular season standings. With the team now free from off-track legal distractions, stability should benefit his campaign.
7. Denny Hamlin
While Hamlin deserves a higher ranking, the events at the end of 2025 and his offseason might slow his start. After securing a series-best six wins last year, he’s expected to be a force again in 2026.
6. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe reached the championship round last season and should improve in his second year alongside Joe Gibbs Racing’s crew chief James Small. As he becomes more comfortable with JGR, he could become an even bigger threat.
5. William Byron
Byron, the 2025 regular season champ with three wins, showed some inconsistency in the playoffs. Under the new system, he’ll need to elevate his late-season performance to succeed.
4. Kyle Larson
The reigning Cup champion had only two DNFs and just five races without leading laps last year. Yet Hendrick drivers tend to be hit-or-miss, which might be risky under the consistency-driven playoff format.
3. Christopher Bell
Bell welcomes the new system after posting 22 top-10 finishes in 2025. With few tracks challenging Joe Gibbs Racing, and crew chief Adam Stevens’ expertise, this setup suits them perfectly.
2. Chase Elliott
Elliott is often highlighted as a driver who will thrive under the new playoff rules due to his steady performance. The key will be qualifying well to rack up stage points alongside crew chief Alan Gustafsson.
1. Ryan Blaney
Blaney carries a confident, Jimmie Johnson-like mindset, consistently finding his way into strong finishes. Although he won a title with the previous system, his 15 top-five finishes last year (tied for most in the series) suggest he might struggle to clinch victories under the new format.
Fan Take: This updated playoff structure shifts the focus from simply winning to rewarding consistent excellence, which could lead to more strategic, competitive racing that keeps fans engaged throughout the season. For NASCAR enthusiasts, this means a thrilling blend of steady performers and race winners battling for the championship over a longer, more demanding playoff stretch.
