The journey to the Kentucky Derby in Florida kicks off this weekend with the 37th edition of the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. This crucial prep race offers 42 Derby qualifying points distributed among the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale.
Formerly called the Preview Stakes until its renaming in 1996, the Holy Bull Stakes has become a reliable early-season benchmark, having produced three Kentucky Derby winners. Notably, Goforgin, who won in 1994, later secured the Derby win; Funny Cide finished fifth here before claiming the Derby in 2003, and Barbaro triumphed in 2006 before going on to win both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. Following the withdrawal of Buetan due to injury, eight three-year-olds are set to compete this Saturday.
From the rail out, the contenders include:
- Bolt d’Oro: Trained by Riley Mott, this colt already has 10 Derby points after a victory in the late October Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. Rider Jaime Torres will continue aboard.
- Roger That Dana: This will mark his fourth start at Gulfstream under Luis Ramirez, coming off a runner-up finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes with jockey Renzo Rojas.
- Project Ace: Trained by Dale Romans, this War of Will progeny has shown consistent form with finishes of first, second, and third at maiden level and will be ridden by Corey Lanerie.
- Global Aviator: Making his second career start after breaking his maiden in a late November dirt sprint at Gulfstream, Joe Bravo will handle the mount for trainer Rohan Crichton.
- Gunner: The morning line’s second favorite at 2-1, this $1.75 million Into Mischief colt, trained by Brad Cox, won his second race by over seven lengths and boasts the highest Equibase Speed Figure (ESF) of 99 among the field.
- Nearya: The 9-5 morning line favorite entered by Hall of Fame trainers Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, has won his last two Gulfstream starts by a combined 14¼ lengths. Buetan was scratched by trainer Bob Baffert.
- Bravalo: Undefeated in two starts, including a win at Belmont’s Sleepy Hollow Stakes, this Upstart colt will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
- Game For It: Trained by Chad Summers, this colt broke his maiden in his only start at Aqueduct in December. Junior Alvarado will have the mount for the first time.
Race analysis and key picks:
Priced at 8-1 on the morning line, Bravalo offers compelling value as an undefeated stakes winner. After debuting with an ESF of 84 in a dirt sprint at Belmont last September, Bravalo stepped up to win the Sleepy Hollow Stakes by 2½ lengths, marking a career-high ESF of 90. That race proved particularly strong, with horses placing third and fifth running well in subsequent starts. Now back in training at Palm Meadows after a 98-day break, Bravalo joins a group of horses returning from layoffs of over 90 days, a category that has yielded a 21% win rate and 40% ROI in graded stakes recently. The Joseph Jr. and Gaffalione duo have been especially successful on Gulfstream dirt routes over the past three years, combining for a 31% win rate and 69% in-the-money finishes. While this will be Bravalo’s first two-turn race, his demonstrated versatility and strong finishing kick make him a notable contender.
Nearya has shown marked improvement on Gulfstream’s main track, escalating from a distant sixth in his Belmont debut to a 9¼ length maiden win about a month later, along with an ESF jump from 58 to 86. He notched another career-best ESF of 92 when narrowly losing an Allowance Optional Claiming race at seven furlongs to a heavy favorite. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who leads in Late Pace rating (112.5) — a key metric correlating with success in graded dirt races — Nearya has been training impressively. With Hall of Famer John Velazquez continuing as jockey, Nearya looks ready for his first two-turn race and class elevation, and his pedigree suggests he can handle longer distances.
Bolt d’Oro carries a strong record of nine wins and two losses and has shown steady improvement heading into the Holy Bull. After a disappointing debut at Ellis Park in August, he made strides at Churchill Downs, posting improved ESFs and winning at a mile. He capped this progress by taking the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes and then finishing ¾ of a length ahead in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with an ESF of 94, underscoring his upward trajectory. Trainer Riley Mott, still seeking his first Gulfstream win this meet, has a promising candidate in Bolt d’Oro, who has shown he can handle two-turn races and continues to improve at Palm Meadows.
Other participants have posted these notable Equibase Speed Figures: Roger That Dana (82), Project Ace (83), Global Aviator (80), Gunner (99), and Game For It (71).
Top contenders by preference:
- Bravalo
- Nearya
- Bolt d’Oro
Race details:
- Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes
- $275,000 purse
- Saturday, January 31st – Gulfstream Park
- Race 12, post time 5:45 PM ET
- Distance: 1 1/16 miles – 3-year-olds
- Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 20-10-6-4-2 (top 5 finishers)
This article was originally published by Paulick Report on January 30, 2026.
Fan Take:
This year’s Holy Bull Stakes promises to be a thrilling early test for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, offering fans a glimpse of rising stars and future champions. Performances here can set the tone for Derby season, making it an essential race for enthusiasts tracking the next big names in horse racing.
