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Reading: NBA Mock Draft 2026: Lottery Simulation Reveals 2 Unexpected Winners and Deals a Blow to Tanking Teams
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Sports Daily > Basketball > NBA Mock Draft 2026: Lottery Simulation Reveals 2 Unexpected Winners and Deals a Blow to Tanking Teams
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NBA Mock Draft 2026: Lottery Simulation Reveals 2 Unexpected Winners and Deals a Blow to Tanking Teams

February 12, 2026 15 Min Read
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The 2026 NBA Draft lottery was expected to be fiercely competitive for half the league, with this draft class long regarded as one of the most talent-rich. Leading prospects AJ Divanza, Cameron Boozer, and Darrin Peterson have dominated the high school scene, and the class has only strengthened with the emergence of Caleb Wilson and Kingston Flemings. The trade deadline intensified the stakes for the lottery even further.

As the season winds down, ten teams are battling for improved lottery chances. The Utah Jazz have been benching their key players in the final quarter to tank games, while the Washington Wizards rarely field their healthy stars. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks appear to be shifting toward rebuilding after years of contention. The trade deadline amplified the pressure: the Los Angeles Clippers sent Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers, securing the No. 5 pick. The Pacers are hoping their draft slot remains within the top four so they can retain that pick.

This edition of the 2026 NBA Mock Draft differs significantly from the previous one, which focused more on individual player projections based on my personal rankings. Now that the board is publicly shared, this mock seeks to predict what NBA teams might realistically do at each draft slot. Using one lottery simulation from Tankathon, the results were quite unexpected. Let’s explore.

1. Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans) – AJ Divanza, Forward, BYU
Although my board places Cameron Boozer first and Divanza third, the NBA may see Divanza as the top pick. Despite questions surrounding his defense and limited three-point range, he’s an elite offensive talent with rare length, strength, explosiveness, and agility. Divanza excels driving to the rim, finishing efficiently at 76% around the basket, has a solid back-to-the-basket game, and spaces the floor well, shooting 37.2% from three mostly on catch-and-shoot attempts. While young players often have areas to refine, Divanza is poised to be a consistent and efficient scorer in the league. He fits better alongside Jalen Johnson than Boozer and has outperformed an injury-plagued Peterson this season.

2. Milwaukee Bucks – Darrin Peterson, Guard, Kansas State
Milwaukee emerges as a big winner in this simulation with the acquisition of Peterson, an All-NBA caliber guard who could secure a bright future alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. Despite hamstring issues limiting his consistency, Peterson produces impressive scoring (43.5 points per 100 possessions at 62% shooting). We have yet to see his full potential with Kansas State, but his shooting, interior offensive pressure, and defensive playmaking are already impressive and should improve when fully healthy.

3. Brooklyn Nets – Cameron Boozer, Forward, Duke
The Nets, needing a top-four pick due to a future swap with Houston, land Boozer here. I regard him as the class’s best prospect due to his offensive versatility and winning impact. Standing 6’9″ and weighing 250 pounds, Boozer combines shooting, driving, and playmaking abilities despite lacking explosive athleticism. His strength, basketball IQ, and continued skill growth have made him the most productive among the top three prospects. Turning 19 shortly after the draft, Boozer’s consistency and talent suggest he will be a franchise cornerstone regardless of where he is selected.

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4. Chicago Bulls – Caleb Wilson, Forward, NC State
The Bulls are another lottery jump beneficiary, moving up from 10th and gaining a 13.9% chance at a top-four pick. This draft’s strength shines with Wilson, Boozer, and two Houston point guards including Kingston Flemings available at this spot. Wilson, a 6’10” forward with relentless energy and two-way potential, could surpass Divanza on my personal board. Known as an aggressive defender covering the full court with secondary rim protection and passing skills, Wilson lacks a reliable three-point shot but compensates with finishing, rebounding for extra possessions, tough mid-range scoring, and playmaking. He projects more as a star role player than a primary star but would be a valuable asset to Chicago’s rebuild and a source of hope for the fans.

5. Sacramento Kings – Kingston Flemings, Guard, Houston
Ending the season with the worst Tank team record would guarantee Sacramento a top-five pick. It’s disappointing for the Kings, but they’d secure an excellent point guard prospect in Flemings, who can help fill the void left by De’Aaron Fox. Flemings possesses elite burst, sharp change-of-direction, and control as a ball-handler. An adept playmaker and mid-range shooter, his free-throw and three-point percentages are expected to rise. Rarely do lead guards with defensive upside show up in this range, emphasizing the draft’s depth.

6. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pacers) – Mikel Brown Jr., Guard, Louisville
The Pacers drop out of the top four, making their pick part of a trade with the Clippers for Ivica Zubac. Brown recently impressed with a 10-of-16 three-point performance against NC State. His combination of pull-up shooting, aggressiveness at the rim, playmaking, and size (6’5″) sets him apart among prospects. Though the Clippers now have a strong point guard in Darius Garland, they cannot afford to pass on a top prospect with a pick this high. Brown is clearly the standout talent on the board here.

7. Washington Wizards – Keaton Wagler, Guard, Illinois
Wagler has shown the most growth in this class, rising from a lowly-ranked rookie to potential top-10 status. His off-the-dribble shooting stands out, as does his ability to create scoring opportunities independently. Though he lacks athletic explosiveness and hasn’t dunked this season, which limits his defense, his shooting and scoring trend make it hard for teams to overlook him.

8. Utah Jazz – Nate Ament, Forward, Tennessee
After a slow start, Ament has caught fire, averaging 25.4 points and seven rebounds with strong shooting splits over five games. Concerns linger about his calm demeanor and ability to attack the rim consistently. With added strength and skill development, Ament’s top-five recruit tools as a 6’10 wing remain appealing to teams drafting here.

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9. Dallas Mavericks – Hannes Steinbach, Forward/Center, Washington
Steinbach is an elite offensive rebounder and efficient scorer who is highly reliable catching passes around the rim. His defensive ability is mixed, and his three-point shot needs work, but his synergy with rookie star Cooper Flagg should boost both players’ productivity. Steinbach’s continual improvement and unique skills make him an intriguing prospect.

10. Memphis Grizzlies – Jaden Quaintance, Center/Forward, Kentucky
Quaintance might have returned too soon from ACL surgery, appearing diminished in recent games. Despite the risk, his defensive upside seen last season as a 17-year-old remains enticing. Memphis may take a chance on him even with existing center Zach Eady on the roster.

11. Charlotte Hornets – Jaksel Lendeborg, Forward, Michigan
Lendeborg will be 24 when he enters the league but still stands as a lottery-caliber player due to his rare skill set. At 6’9″ with a 7’4 wingspan, he can defend multiple positions, rebound effectively, and stretch the floor with three-point shooting. His late start in basketball hasn’t hindered his development, and he could be the perfect fit to round out Charlotte’s young core.

12. San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks) – Patrick Gomba, Center, Duke
Often Spurs fans expect a shooter, but this time they land Gomba, a 6’11 big man with a smooth touch, passing ability, and solid paint protection. While not a dominant rebounder, his polished skill set merits lottery consideration.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers) – Brayden Burries, Guard, Arizona
Burries was slow to start but has delivered strong performances lately, with 21.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3 assists on high efficiency. Although older for a freshman, his secondary ball-handling and scoring versatility fit well with OKC’s needs for long-term shooting.

14. Portland Trail Blazers – Braylon Mullins, Guard, UConn
Portland ranks near the bottom in three-point shooting, and Mullins could provide an immediate boost with his quick, pure deep stroke combined with size and athleticism. Injuries have limited his ceiling this season, but his upside remains promising ahead of March Madness.

15. Miami Heat – Core Pete, Forward, Florida State/Arizona State
Pete isn’t a shooter, but his strong frame, playmaking, and finishing skills have made him a valuable role player on a veteran team. If he develops his shot without compromising spacing, he offers an attractive combo-forward profile.

16. Golden State Warriors – Cameron Carr, Guard, Baylor
Carr’s 7’2″ wingspan and 41% three-point shooting will appeal to teams despite his thin frame and limited off-the-dribble game. While his defense needs work, wing shooters with his length are rare.

17. Memphis Grizzlies – Bennett Staats, Guard, Iowa State
A pick-and-roll specialist with an unhurried style, Staats can score creatively and distribute well. His defense will be scrutinized pre-draft, but his fit as a lead guard aligns with Memphis’ preferences.

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18. Oklahoma City Thunder – Chris Cenac Jr., Center/Forward, Houston
Cenac is a 6’10 big with a 7’4 wingspan and soft shooting touch, showing potential as a stretch five. Defensively sound though still developing court awareness, his commitment to coach Kelvin Sampson suggests strong character.

19. Charlotte Hornets (via Suns) – Darius Acuff, Guard, Arkansas
Acuff produces high-level stats against top competition but has defensive and shot-selection concerns. The Hornets may welcome another guard despite recently acquiring Coby White, given their different play styles.

20. Toronto Raptors – Aday Mara, Center, Michigan State
Needing a long-term center, the Raptors might select Mara, a 7’3” rim protector who excels at outlet passing to start fast breaks.

21. Detroit Pistons (via Timberwolves) – Tyler Tanner, Guard, Vanderbilt
Acquired through trade, Tanner is a lightning-fast point guard capable of unlocking offense despite his small stature. Supported by Detroit’s defensive cast, he could thrive as a dynamic lead guard.

22. Los Angeles Lakers – Mores Johnson, Forward, Michigan
Johnson adds much-needed paint presence and finishing ability, with growing three-point skills. His length and strength offset his below-average height for his position.

23. Atlanta Hawks (via Cavaliers) – Thomas Ho, Forward, Florida State
Ho combines defense, shooting range, and athletic finishing, projecting as a reliable role player.

24. Denver Nuggets – Daylene Swain, Forward, Texas
A strong sleeper pick, Swain offers size, athleticism, defensive versatility, and improving shooting, making him a great fit in Denver.

25. New York Knicks – LaBaron Fillon, Guard, Alabama
Despite his small size, Fillon’s scoring creativity and improved outside shooting make him a tempting pick, although his defense may limit his upside.

26. Philadelphia 76ers – Karim Lopez, Forward, New Zealand Breakers
Coming via trade, Lopez is a strong 6’9 forward with downhill attacking ability and finishing skills. He may deserve to be picked higher.

27. Boston Celtics – Tunde Yesufu, Guard, Baylor
Yesufu, a former five-star recruit, has shown improved offense though his playmaking remains limited. His defensive prowess may secure him a roster spot despite offensive concerns.

28. Cleveland Cavaliers – Joshua Jefferson, Forward, Iowa State
A top college player, Jefferson offers star and role potential with good size, passing, rebounding, and defense.

29. Minnesota Timberwolves – Aliyah Arenas, Guard, USC
After a slow start due to a severe car accident, Arenas is showing promise as a sizey, skilled guard with explosive ability. A full season could boost his draft stock considerably.

30. Dallas Mavericks – Maryke Thomas, Guard, Arkansas
Thomas, a dynamic scorer with agility and shooting range, could provide valuable bench scoring for Dallas as the final first-round pick.

Fan Take: This mock draft highlights an exceptionally deep and versatile class that offers teams a wide array of talent to reshape their future. For basketball fans, these projections signal exciting prospects who could redefine franchises and elevate the competitive landscape for years to come.

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