PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — The most important event of the young PGA Tour season will take center stage this week as 123 golfers converge on TPC Sawgrass for the 2026 Players Championship. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have definitely played in the PGA Tour’s flagship event over the past few seasons, but this year looks a little different.
The world No. 1 hasn’t positioned himself as a world winner over the past few tournaments. Scheffler’s first-round struggles were replaced by concerns about his batting. He was seen searching for answers as he tested a number of new driver heads at the TPC Sawgrass practice range, aiming for his third Players title in the past four years.
But at least Scheffler is on the driving range, as McIlroy announced Monday that he is staying home as the clock ticks down and the tournament approaches due to a back injury that forced him to miss the Arnold Palmer Invitational. McIlroy’s status remains up in the air as he looks to become the second golfer to defend his Players title.
These questions leave the door wide open for someone else to step through and win the golden trophy. Collin Morikawa could emulate McIlroy in 2025 and win at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass before the major championship season begins. The under-26s are making their mark on the tour, with Chris Gotterp, Jacob Bridgman, Akshay Bhatia and Ludwig Oberg all arriving in style.
Past major champions like Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Justin Rose hope to find the mindset and feel of their swing before play begins, while names like Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland and Russell Henry are quietly starting to find their stride.
So what will happen in Ponte Vedra Beach this week? See the complete predictions and picks from the CBS Sports experts.
2026 Players Championship Expert Picks, Predictions
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Russell Henry (30-1): For the past five years, The Players Championship has featured winners from within the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking. A row of murderer champions. Henry’s personality may not match that description, but his game does. The world No. 6 ranked No. 6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was able to finish sixth thanks to a defensive effort and had a weekend without a bogey.
Sleeper — Ryan Gerrard (70-1): Over the past three months, he ranks 8th in total strokes gained, 6th in strokes gained in approach, and ranks within the top 25 in strokes gained from tee to green. Gerard continues to put in a lot of hard work but is hampered by his incompetence on the greens. This is where his tee-to-green excellence allows him to compete. If he has a good putter, he is confident that he can win the biggest championship of his career.
Top 10 Rock — Collin Morikawa: There may not be a more confident golfer in the world right now. Morikawa comes into the Players Championship following a win at Pebble Beach and top-10 finishes at Riviera and Bay Hill. The more difficult conditions will highlight the two-time major champion’s skill set. He has proven in this run that he has what it takes to finish on the first page of the leaderboard even without a high-end short game.
A star who will never win — Rory McIlroy: I don’t like this, but I also don’t like being late in arriving at the facility. He has had a love-hate relationship with Florida golf over the years, with last year’s championship falling on the “love” side of the spectrum. Prior to that, he had not finished in the top 10 at The Players since winning in 2019.
Surprise prediction — 4 of OWGR’s top 10 players miss out: There are several questions swirling around the golf world right now. Scheffler’s iron play wasn’t sensational. McIlroy arrived battling a back injury. Since the win at Torrey Pines, Rose has wilted. This will be Gotterup’s second appearance in the championship. Both Robert McIntyre and Xander Schauffele are far from their best. Can the four of them pack up early? That’s not the craziest idea.
Minimum round: 66(-6)
Winning score: 276 (-12)
Winner Sunday score: 70(-2)
Robbie Calland, golf writer
Winner — Si Woo Kim (22-1): Kim has an impressive resume that includes a win in 2017 at TPC Sawgrass, and no player on the PGA Tour will hit the irons better to start this season. He has played 25 rounds this year, gaining nearly 1.2 strokes each time he approaches the green, the best mark among players who have played more than four rounds. He’s been great off the tee (20th in strokes gained), and I don’t think there’s anyone at TPC Sawgrass right now who’s doing better than Kim in the most important thing.
Sleeper — Pierceson Coody (100-1): One of the best young ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, Coody has been a hit-or-miss putter, but his ability tee-to-green makes for very good looks and could be in the mix for the weekend. We’ll have to wait and see if his putter warms up enough to really compete, but his tee shot (8th in strokes gained) and irons (34th) are very consistent, so his game should blend well with TPC Sawgrass.
Top 10 Rock — Collin Morikawa: Speaking of ball strikers, Morikawa is currently tied with Kim as the player who hits the ball better than anyone else. He’s regained some much-needed creativity at Sawgrass and seems to be going crazy with his golf swing. Expect to see his name on the first page of the leaderboard throughout the weekend.
The unbeatable star — Ludwig Oberg (22-1): I know he played well at Bay Hill last week, but Oberg is still playing too recklessly to win at The Players. TPC Sawgrass requires some patience to know where they can attack and where they need to play conservatively, and Oberg isn’t showing that. He could post a low round somewhere along the way if he gets into a great rhythm, but he’s not quite ready to string together the four rounds needed to win at Sawgrass.
Surprise prediction — Scottie Scheffler won’t be in the top 10: The two-time winner of The Players has looked surprisingly deadly lately, especially with his iron play. Scheffler ranks a shocking 88th in strokes gained approaching the green, a category he has dominated for the past five years. Sawgrass is not the place to try to solve things with iron, and the distance control that has made him such a dominant force is not there yet this season.
Minimum round: 64(-8)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner Sunday score: 69(-3)
Who will win the Players Championship in 2026? Which long shot will shock the golf world? Visit SportsLine now to see the predicted leaderboardsfind everything from 16 golf major nailed models for the weekend.
Adam Silverstein, Senior Editorial Director
Winner — Collin Morikawa (15-1): Morikawa’s odds are dropping as the tournament approaches, and there’s a good reason for that. He’s hitting the ball now with better, more consistent accuracy than he’s shown in years. The question isn’t whether Morikawa will compete — he’s an easy top-10 lock this week — but whether he can win his second tournament of his young season. If Morikawa can do it at TPC Sawgrass, following a similar path that McIlroy put together at the start of the 2025 season, he could mount an incredibly successful campaign.
Sleeper — Rickie Fowler (45-1): He’s playing too well to have such long odds, especially for a player who won this tournament (albeit in 2015) and showed off his skill with the irons this season. It’s tough to ask Fowler to win in this field, but I much prefer him to names with similar odds like Brooks Koepka or Shane Lowry.
Top 10 Rock — Scotty Scheffler: That’s enough. How long is this person going to stay depressed? And when I say “down,” I’m just talking about his top-20 and top-30 finishes in his last two events. OK, Scheffler’s streak is over. Admittedly, he lost something from his fastball earlier this season. Do you really believe he can’t get it back, especially in a place he’s already won twice?
The star who never wins — Rory McIlroy (18-1): This may be a cheap pick, but McIlroy is literally No. 3 on the odds board and the No. 2 player in the world. He has spent the past five days dealing with back spasms, which are clearly still bothering him considering McIlroy was contorted while hitting irons around TPC Sawgrass after his late arrival. He may never start the tournament. If that happens, you’re more likely to drop out on Thursday or Friday than to complete all 72 holes, let alone win.
Amazing Predictions — Russell Henry Never Claims: One of the two hottest players entering this tournament, Henry has been playing some great golf lately. Here’s the problem. He’s not particularly good at this course, missing the cut twice in his last five plays and never finishing better than T13. Four of the last five opening games have been 72-73-72-75.
Minimum round: 65(-7)
Winning score: 274 (-14)
Winner Sunday score: 69(-3)
