England aims to match away-day record against Croatia.

In recent years, England and Croatia have developed a competitive rivalry.

During the 2018 tournament, Luka Modric and his teammates handed Gareth Southgate his first significant defeat, with Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic overturning Kieran Trippier’s impressive free-kick.

Since that match, the Three Lions have kicked off two major tournaments—Euro 2020 and the 2026 World Cup—with wins over Croatia, making their upcoming clash in Rijeka crucial for both sides.

Having both won against Czechia and lost to Spain in their opening Nations League Group A3 matches, this encounter could determine which team advances to the quarter-finals next March.

So, who will take the victory this weekend? Let’s dive into the game preview with insights from Opta.

Croatia touchdown   pic.twitter.com/Gxr56YOkRA

— England (@England) September 30, 2026

What can we expect?

The Opta supercomputer favors England, albeit with some uncertainty.

In 10,000 pre-game simulations, the Three Lions won 48.6% of the time, while Croatia came out on top 27.4%, leaving a 24% chance of a draw.

Despite the past defeat in the 2018 semi-final, a win for England would align with their recent success against Croatia.

Since that match in Moscow, Croatia has not been victorious in any of their four encounters with England, managing only one draw and three losses, including two Nations League games in 2018 (0-0 at home, 1-2 away).

Overall, England has claimed five victories in their last seven matches against Croatia across all competitions (D1 L1), dating back to a loss in 2007 that cost them a spot at Euro 2008.

In fact, England scored four or more goals in three of those wins, prevailing 4-1 in September 2008, 5-1 in September 2009, and 4-2 at the World Cup this past June.

Croatia facing a challenging moment

After nine years under Zlatko Dalic, Slaven Bilic returned to lead Croatia, securing a win against Czechia last weekend thanks to goals from Modric and Marco Pasalic in a 2-1 away victory.

However, they faced a tough defeat against Spain in Seville on Tuesday, losing 4-1 despite briefly equalizing with Dion Beljo’s inaugural international goal.

Croatia’s performance was disappointing, attempting only five shots compared to Spain’s 16 and registering 0.47 expected goals (xG) against Spain’s 1.81.

This xG is one of their lower metrics in recent Nations League matches, previously recorded against France in March 2025 (0.18), Sweden in November 2020 (0.3), and against England in October 2018 (0.42).

 Another practice session in Seville, then the flight to Rijeka! 

 Drago Sopta / HNS #NationsLeague #Vatreni pic.twitter.com/NeSCqwfdd0

— HNS (@HNSfamily) September 30, 2026

In the wake of this reality check, Croatia has now lost five out of their ten matches in 2026 (W5).

This only marks the third instance where they have suffered this many defeats in a single year (also in 2018 and 2020), though they have never before lost six in one year.

Returning home to Stadion HNK in Rijeka, they will be hoping for better outcomes, having won eight of their last nine competitive matches at home (D1) since a 1-0 loss to Turkiye in a Euro 2024 qualifier back in October 2023.

However, Croatia has dropped four of their last 41 competitive matches on home turf, with three losses in the Nations League against France and Portugal in 2020 and Austria in 2022.

Will Tuchel consider his away win record?

England secured a 2-0 victory against Czechia on Tuesday, with Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane on the score sheet, following a first-half red card shown to Czech midfielder Pavel Sulc.

This marked England’s sixth win in their last eight Nations League outings (L2), during which they netted an impressive 20 goals—a stark contrast to their performance in the initial 18 games of the tournament (W5 D6 L7, 18 goals).

It also marked their eighth consecutive away victory in all competitions, providing an opportunity to equal a long-standing team record this weekend.

England has only matched nine away wins in a row once before under World Cup-winning manager Alf Ramsey between December 1965 and October 1967.

It will be interesting to see how Tuchel shapes his lineup for this match, especially after he gave Trent Alexander-Arnold his first start since October 2024 in a Nations League triumph against Finland.

Putting in a shift #ThreeLions | @eonenergyuk pic.twitter.com/oQFX0OmNKm

— England (@England) September 30, 2026

Alexander-Arnold assisted Gordon’s opening goal with his trademark cross, marking his first international assist since the Finland game two years ago.

Tuchel opted for a more cautious approach with Jarell Quansah on the right against Spain, but given Alexander-Arnold’s outstanding performances—ranking second among England players for both chances created and passes into the final third—might he leverage his creativity from deeper positions?

74% – England have won 74.1% of the matches Trent Alexander-Arnold has started for England (20/27). Among players with 25+ starts, only Marcus Rashford has a higher win rate (77%, won 27/35).

Re-introduction. pic.twitter.com/dBQs0bZ7oa

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 29, 2026

Tuchel also has midfielder options available, as Myles Lewis-Skelly has started consecutively in Declan Rice’s absence, while Alex Scott earned his first senior cap in Prague, and Morgan Gibbs-White made a vibrant appearance.

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Croatia – Ivan Perisic

Perisic, who was instrumental with both a goal and an assist against England in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, has participated in both of Croatia’s matches during this international break.

The 37-year-old has been involved in 15 goals in his last 18 starts for Croatia, scoring six times and providing nine assists.

England – Harry Kane

Kane, who recently struck the crossbar with a penalty during England’s match against Spain, has been in excellent away form.

The England captain has scored in each of his last five international away matches and could become the fourth player to find the net in six consecutive away games for the Three Lions, joining the ranks of James Windridge, Tom Finney, and Stan Mortensen.