We’re at the midpoint of the NFL season and, technically, every team still has a shot at the playoffs — yes, even the Titans and Chargers remain in the math. As we enter Week 9, the season’s picture is starting to sharpen, so we asked analytics specialist Stephen Oh to simulate the remaining schedule. Oh ran every one of the 151 remaining regular-season games plus 13 postseason matchups to produce full playoff projections, including division winners and a Super Bowl champion. Note: these are end-of-season projections, not the current standings.
Projected AFC playoff field
The AFC picture shifted dramatically after the Broncos upset the Chiefs, prompting the model to give Denver the AFC West crown again. The simulation’s AFC qualifiers (with current records) are:
1. Bills (6-1) — AFC East winner
2. Jaguars (5-2) — AFC South winner
3. Broncos (6-2) — AFC West winner
4. Bengals (5-2) — AFC North winner
5. Chiefs (5-2)
6. Steelers (6-2)
7. Patriots (5-3)
Just missed: Texans (2-5), Browns (5-3)
If Denver holds the West, Kansas City would slip into a wild-card spot — a first in Patrick Mahomes’ era. Since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have always entered the playoffs as division champions and have never hosted a wild-card game with him under center.
Projected NFC playoff field
The NFC North projection has changed yet again; after Monday’s convincing Bears win in Seattle, the model now favors Chicago to win the division. Over the past eight weeks the projected North winner has swung between Minnesota, Detroit and now Chicago. The NFC qualifiers (with current records) are:
1. 49ers (6-1) — NFC West winner
2. Bears (6-2) — NFC North winner
3. Giants (4-2-1) — NFC East winner
4. Buccaneers (3-5) — NFC South winner
5. Vikings (4-2)
6. Lions (4-3)
7. Seahawks (5-2)
Just missed: Packers (5-3), Rams (4-4)
The simulation even produces a rare scenario: two division winners finishing at or below .500. In this projection, the Giants win the NFC East at 8-8-1 and the Buccaneers win the NFC South at 8-9. Tampa Bay’s turnaround in the model follows consecutive dominant divisional wins over Carolina and Atlanta after starting 0-4. Historically, there have been playoff entries at .500 or worse, but never two divisional champions both at .500 or below — if that occurred, it would knock out teams projected above .500 like Green Bay and the Rams.
Wild-card round
AFC
– (2) Jaguars 27, (7) Patriots 20 — Jacksonville gets postseason revenge; the Jags had routed New England 35-6 in Week 3 and hold on in a closer playoff rematch.
– (3) Broncos 21, (6) Steelers 19 — Denver starts its postseason run with a narrow win over Pittsburgh; the teams meet in the regular season on Black Friday as well.
– (4) Bengals 26, (5) Chiefs 25 — Joe Burrow continues his success against Patrick Mahomes, eking out a one-point home victory.
NFC
– (2) Bears 24, (7) Seahawks 21 — Chicago repeats a Monday-night performance, surviving a tighter playoff game in Seattle.
– (6) Lions 29, (3) Giants 23 — Detroit breaks its long road-playoff losing streak and advances with a road victory over New York.
– (4) Buccaneers 21, (5) Vikings 17 — Tampa Bay becomes the first team to reach the playoffs after starting 0-4 in the same season, using its rushing attack to grind out a win and derail Minnesota’s promise after a 6-0 start.
Divisional round
AFC
– (1) Bills 34, (4) Bengals 24 — Buffalo comes out strong after the bye and defeats Cincinnati in what would be the franchise’s first playoff game at its new stadium.
– (2) Jaguars 21, (3) Broncos 19 — A back-and-forth divisional game ends with Jacksonville knocking off Denver on a late Cam Little field goal.
NFC
– (1) 49ers 28, (6) Lions 27 — San Francisco edges Detroit in a thriller; Brock Purdy outplays Jared Goff to send the 49ers deeper into the playoffs.
– (2) Bears 28, (4) Buccaneers 19 — Chicago’s offense led by Caleb Williams proves too much for Tampa Bay, putting the Bears in the NFC title game for the first time since 2010.
Conference title games
AFC Championship
– (1) Bills 28, (2) Jaguars 24 — Buffalo gets past Jacksonville in a tight game as Josh Allen guides the Bills to the Super Bowl berth.
NFC Championship
– (2) Bears 26, (1) 49ers 24 — Chicago’s defense — bolstered, in the model, by the addition of Jeffery Simmons — makes decisive plays in a road win that finally bests San Francisco in the NFC title matchup.
Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium
– (1) Bills 27, (2) Bears 26 — In a one-point Super Bowl, Buffalo prevails. The simulation highlights DJ Moore having a big game against his former team and credits Bills coach Joe Brady with becoming just the third head coach this century to win a Super Bowl in his first season on the job. Josh Allen gets his first Super Bowl victory in the model’s outcome, sparking huge celebrations back in Buffalo.
Weekly Super Bowl projection track
The model’s Super Bowl pick has changed several times this year:
– Preseason: Rams over Ravens
– After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens
– After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs
– After Week 3: Chiefs over Vikings
– After Week 4: Seahawks over Chiefs
– After Week 5: 49ers over Chiefs
– After Week 6: Chiefs over 49ers
– After Week 7: Bills over Vikings
– After Week 8: Bills over Bears
This is the first week the model has the Bears in the Super Bowl. It gives Chicago about an 18.0% chance to win the NFC, with San Francisco just behind at 17.0%. The Lions (15.9%) and Vikings (13.2%) are the only other teams above 10% to win the conference. For the Super Bowl itself, Buffalo stands out with a 15.5% chance to take the title — notably higher than any other team, as no other club exceeds 10%.
Fan Take (two sentences)
These simulations matter because they turn the fog of midseason uncertainty into a clear picture of which teams the numbers favor, highlighting surprising contenders and potential playoff upsets. For fans, that means more reasons to watch every game — an unlikely division winner or a historic playoff breakthrough can reshape narratives and make the stretch run far more exciting.
Source: www.cbssports.com
