Last weekend I went 3–2, which I’ll happily take. But we also witnessed something wild: one of my losses was UConn +1.5 and they fell to an Air Force squad that didn’t complete a single pass. Not a single one. It was brutal in the moment, but pretty funny looking back.
I’m sharing plays you can trust — I run everything by multiple handicappers, oddsmakers and sharp friends before I pull the trigger. This column won’t be about throwing out a million picks or pushing five-team parlays; these are the same bets I’m personally placing.
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(2026 Record: 22-19-2, +1.1 units)
Missouri (+3)
This line feels off. Texas just crushed Mississippi State 31-3, yet sportsbooks opened them only a field-goal favorite? A closer look shows Texas’ run game is struggling — just 60 yards on 32 carries — and that won’t hold up against tougher opponents. Austin Simmons is playing well at quarterback for Mizzou, and the Tigers have a real shot to win this outright.
Minnesota (+5)
Another number I don’t love for the favorite. UCLA is 8-0 against the spread this season, but Circa put them at -6, just under the key 7-point margin. These teams match up similarly and the game projection suggests it won’t be a touchdown-fest. If Minnesota takes care of the ball, they can stay within striking distance.
Panthers (+2.5)
After Denver’s goal-line stop to beat Kansas City, they now have a long cross-country trip to face a middling Carolina team — and sharps were quick to grab the +3 for the Panthers. I’m not comfortable laying a short road favorite, especially with the travel and with Bo Nix in Charlotte, so I’ll take Carolina.
Commanders (+4.5)
The Rams keep getting credit in the market, but they haven’t been profitable bettors’ friends this year. Washington plays hard for 60 minutes, and Jayden Daniels protects the football. This number is in that range where a big lead can evaporate late, so expect a tight finish and take the Commanders.
Fan Take: These lines matter because they reveal how sportsbooks and sharp money view team strengths and travel impacts — small edges like a cross-country trip or turnover-avoidance can swing outcomes. For NFL fans, paying attention to prices and matchup details can deepen your understanding of team value and how the season’s pecking order might be shifting.
Source: www.foxsports.com
