Nearly all of the last 22 NFL seasons saw teams rise from last place in their divisions to division champions the following year, except for three seasons—and 2023 was one of those exceptions. Almost every team that won their division in 2023 had won it the previous year, with the Rams being the only team to break this trend.
Given how unusual it is for division winners to repeat, it’s likely a team will emerge this year from the bottom of the standings. But who will rise to the top in 2025?
Looking at contenders in 2024 and their chances of winning their divisions in 2025, the Ravens lead the AFC North and seem nearly untouchable with a dominant pass rush led by Miles Garrett and notable offensive improvements. However, uncertainty remains about their quarterback position. The Browns and Giants are neck and neck for the bottom spot, but the Giants’ quarterback situation and strong defense give them a slight edge despite a tough schedule against NFC and AFC North rivals.
The Saints face trouble following quarterback Derek Carr’s unexpected retirement, relying on Spencer Rattler or rookie Tyler Schaff under center, with health concerns for their best offensive weapon, Chris Olave. Meanwhile, the Panthers, tied with the Saints in 2024, could improve if quarterback Michael Penix Jr. steps up, yet the Falcons and Buccaneers remain division threats.
The Chiefs, despite injuries and questions on offense, are not expected to decline, keeping the AFC West competitive. The Raiders, with a new coach Pete Carroll and significant offseason moves, may exceed expectations if their offensive line holds for quarterback Gino Smith.
In the AFC East, the Bills dominate but the Patriots could challenge for second with a promising young quarterback in Drake May and an improved offensive line. The Bears made major offseason investments with new head coach Ben Johnson and hope for a breakout season from Caleb Williams to enter playoff contention. The Lions face a challenge with the retirement of center Frank Ragnau, but a manageable schedule could help them maintain a solid record in the tough NFC North.
The AFC South is unpredictable; the Titans could surprise with new quarterback Cam Ward and added offensive weapons, potentially shaking up the division. In the NFC West, the Rams defend their top spot, but last season’s poor performance by the 49ers isn’t expected to continue if they regain health, especially Christian McCaffrey; their draft picks also addressed defensive losses.
Carmen Vitari, an NFL reporter for Fox Sports with extensive experience, provides this comprehensive outlook on the league’s divisional battles.
Fan Take: This analysis highlights the dynamic nature of the NFL, where last season’s standings don’t guarantee future success, keeping fans excited for surprises. The quarterback uncertainty and rising young talent could redefine divisions and shift the league’s balance, making 2025 a thrilling year for the sport.
