The 157th Belmont Stakes happening this Saturday is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown predominantly among three contenders. This rare triple crown rematch features the Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, and the Preakness winner, Journalism. Sovereignty’s trainer opted out of the Preakness, while Baeza, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and also skipped the Preakness, aims for a strong comeback against these top rivals.
Only eight horses will compete over 1¼ miles at Saratoga Race Course, marking the second consecutive year the event is held there at a shorter distance due to Belmont Park undergoing renovations. The spotlight is on the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby, with the fresh contender Rodriguez also drawing interest. Rodriguez missed the Kentucky Derby and Preakness because of a foot injury but is expected to be ready for this race under trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith.
If either Journalism or Sovereignty takes the win, it will open up the possibility of a Kentucky Derby-Belmont or Preakness-Belmont double. Historically, 11 horses have won the Derby and Belmont, while 18 have claimed the Preakness and Belmont. The last horse to win two legs of the triple crown after finishing third in the Derby was Afret Alex in 2005.
Betting strategies focus on finding value amid small fields and heavy favorites like Journalism, who has run three races in five weeks. While Journalism is favored, some bettors might lean toward Baeza, who is more rested and appears to be improving. Sovereignty also poses questions about pace and whether his Derby win over Journalism was due to race tactics or true superiority.
The 2025 Belmont starters include Hill Road, Sovereignty, Rodriguez, Not Recorded, Raw, Baeza, Journalism, and Heart of Honor. Journalism is the most likely winner according to experts, but Baeza and Sovereignty remain strong contenders, with Rodriguez as a long-shot pick due to his connections’ past success in the Belmont.
Anita Mark highlights several key notes for this year’s race: the continued shorter distance at Saratoga, the main rivalry between Sovereignty and Journalism, Baeza’s potential upset backed by a strong pedigree, and the role of speed horses Rodriguez and Raw. Hill Road is a dark horse threat, and Heart of Honor could make history if jockey Saffie Osborne wins, becoming the second female jockey to claim a Belmont Stakes victory.
Recommended bets include an exacta box with Sovereignty, Baeza, and Journalism, wagering on Baeza to win, place, or show, and considering Hill Road for place or show.
Fan Take: This Belmont Stakes not only offers an exceptional rematch of top Triple Crown horses but also could signal the rise of new talent, showcasing the depth and excitement of modern horse racing. For fans, it’s a pivotal moment that blends tradition with fresh narratives, potentially reshaping the sport’s future.
