A very strong field and extremely difficult course cannot stop bookmakers from making Scotty Schaeffler the historic favorite of the 125th US Open. His incredibly short odds don’t prevent bettors from supporting him in large quantities.
Scheffler shows +275 odds to win the 2025 US Open at Oakmont Country Club, according to ESPN BET odds. Tiger Woods is +225 or short in all majors in 2009, so he will become his biggest favorite in the male golf major as he won any of those tournaments. Schaeffler surpassed his own personal best major odds to enter the 2024 US Open and was eventually tied to 41st.
Their big favorite short odds and checkered history do not scare the gambling masses. ESPNBET reports more than 50% of the handles, leading the bets 22.6% that Schaeffler supports Schaeffler to win at Oakmont.
“The price that Schaeffler enters Tournament Week reflects his consistent performance, his tricks to appearing in majors, and his big bet interest in winning tournaments after tournaments. “He has been a favorite in almost every tournament in recent years and he continues to play, so it’s only a matter of time before he sees such a historically short line.”
In Sportsbook’s one-year US Open Market, Scheffler opened at +500, continually shortened with hot plays in the first half of 2025, and was then +400 after a PGA Championship victory and +300 after a victory in the Memorial Tournament. Despite heavy support, Schaeffler’s extremely short odds mean he’s not a terrible scenario for the sportsbook if he captures the third round of his career grand slam.
“It’s not that they don’t bet him. They bet him, so they’re just going to take a much shorter price, and we don’t usually get exposed.” “I think where the exposure comes in is when he’s approaching the lead and is where he’s betting in the game and at that point he’s (in the past) building up.”
With the exception of Scheffler, Bryson Dechambeau, the second favorite of +750 on the odds board at ESPN BET, also has gained meaningful public support across the market, accounting for more than 15% of the handle in several major sportsbooks. The defending US Open Champion has seen his odds cut in almost half from his opener at +1400.
Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy’s odds have been very long in his poor form: after winning the Masters in April, the 36-year-old was +550 to win the US Open, but fell to +1150 after missing a cut at the Canadian Open.
“There’s no talk. He’s like a sleeper at this point,” Anthony Salleroli, lead golf trader at Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN. “If you ask me about PGA Championship time, I certainly thought there would be three bullets at the US Open, but Rory fell out of that class and now people don’t get enough of two guys, Schaeffler and Deccanbeau.”
Other golfers who have attracted all sorts of attention throughout the sportsbook market are John Rahm (+1200), Rudig Åberg (+2200), Morikawa (+2500), Shane Raleigh (+3300), and Harris English (+8000).
Bookmakers chalk some of the gravity to their reported favorites regarding Oakmont difficulty.
“The US Open at Oakmont is one of the toughest tests these players face,” said Matt Wall, senior sports trader at BetMGM, in a release. “BETMGM’s customers are leaning towards proven quality in this area.”
