Arrivals on the Wimbledon tennis calendar means that they are very different on the men and women’s side of the tour.
For men, Wimbledon represents perhaps the most predictable of all slums. In the last 20 years, only 12 players have reached the Gentleman final. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have made up more than half of the 40 spots in the final, with Djokovic taking on the last six finals, winning four wins and losing the last two to Carlos Alcaraz. Meanwhile, Alkaraz has won the past four slams on natural surfaces (clay or grass). If you just want to fill him in the finals already, that’s reasonable.
But on the women’s side, things are much different. Despite a rather distinct hierarchy formed over the women’s tour, Iga Swaitek, Alina Sabalenka and Koko Gauff have won nine of the last 10 slams on hard courts or clay. Over the past four years, the All-England Lawn Tennis and Crockett Club has given us 13 different semi-finals. Grass is the ultimate sign of greatness for men and a random outcome generator for women.
So the 2025 edition of this renowned tournament offers a rather obvious storyline. Alcaraz, Jjokovic and World No. 1 Jannik Sinner are male draw runaways, but both Sabalenka and Gauff face tough draws and everyone can guess how the women’s tournament will play out with the randomness grass offering. Walk the players most likely to define two weeks of Wimbledon in 2025.
favorite
Carlos Alcalaz
ESPN Bet Odds: +125 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 54.2%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents: No. 8 Holger Rune (quarterfinals)
A new off from victory in the 2020s best slam finals – his epic comeback against the sinner at the French Open – Alcaraz cruised his lonely grass court tune-up and defeated Giri Lehecca to win at Queens Club a week ago.
It is unfair to compare young players to the Big Three standards (Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal). But Alkaraz makes it impossible avoid These comparisons. Nadal won four slam titles before his 22nd birthday, but Djokovic and Federer only won one each. Alcaraz won for the fifth time a month after turning 22. He boasts of the merciless consistency of the sinner, but as proven in the later set against the sinner in Paris, his A-game and raw upside down are unparalleled. His ability to adapt and improvise in unique conditions could become a favorite of all French Open or Wimbledon that he has entered for the next decade.
Jannik Sinner
ESPN Bet Odds: +190 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 6.6%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 7 Lorenzom Setti (quarter-finals)
Since mid-August, the sinners have been 48-4-0-3, 0-3 against Alkaraz and 48-1 against everyone else. He lost three sets to the ferocious Alexander Babrik in the German Halle a week ago, reaching the Wimbledon semi-final in 2023, but has not been proven in grass much more than the other surfaces.
A sinner’s draw is a challenge. Even before potentially meeting Djokovic on the GOAT’s best surface in the semis (and, presumably, Alcaraz in the final), he could face 2021 semifinalist Denis Shapovalov in the third round, 2024 quarterfinalist Tommy Paul or 2014 semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round and 2024 semifinalist Lorenzo Musetti or big-serving Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals. He doesn’t have much time to find the fifth gear, but it’s hard to go against him to do a big run.
Alina Sabalenka
ESPN Bet Odds: +240 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 19.3%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 6 Madison Keys or 9 Paula Badosa (quarterfinals)
The only thing Sabalenka lacked in 2025 is a great final act. She reached the finals in seven of the 10 tournaments she participated in, but lost four of her past six finals, including the Australian Open and the Key and the French Open. (And despite the extra practice, her post-final concession speech could use a little more work.)
She reached the semi-finals on each of her last two Wimbledon trips, and in a preview of the potential finals, she lasted longer than Berlin’s Elena Rivakina a week ago, saving four match points on the tiebreaker in the final set. Like a sinner, she needs to acquire this. Her draw can be featured either in the third round of 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova, local favourite Emmaradukanu or Nottingham champions, with the fourth two semifinalist Elinas Vitrina, quarterfinal keys and semis’ final 2024 Jasmine Paoolini. That’s a rough road, but Sabalenka is the most reliable thing on the women’s tour.
Novak Djokovic
ESPN Bet Odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 21.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 4 Jack Draper (quarter-finals)
If you need a reminder that Djokovic’s standards remain ridiculously high, you’ve got it in Paris. The 2025 season features more persistent injuries, and at one point, his first three matches in seven years lost, his run to the French Open Semi-Finals undoubtedly encouraged. He won four straight set matches in a row – he didn’t have to play his own path into form – and defeated Alexander Zverev in four sets before falling into a sinner in the semi-finals. And even against the sinner, he never lost the set in multiple breaks (6-4, 7-5, 7-6). However, he was particularly emotional as he left the court, and then admitted that he might be closer than ever to retirement. I think we are all like that.
He emptyed his bag of tricks, but his inability to steal a set from the sinner clearly made him feel so fatal. It was probably the same as smoking Alkaraz at last year’s Wimbledon Finals (6-2, 6-2, 7-6). However, if the 24-time slam champion reaches No. 25, he will likely arrive at the All England Club. He lifted the trophy seven times and lost it only twice since 2017. His draw is tricky. However, Djokovic does not need many breaks to go deeper into the second week.
Coco Gouf
ESPN Bet Odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 8.7%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 8 Iga Swiatek (quarterfinals)
Only 21 years old, Gauff has already won two slam titles, a 2024 WTA Final victory, two other 1000-level titles and a slam doubles title. And she did this despite struggles with her serve and her forehand from time to time – she has clear room for improvements to advance. Yikes.
But she is still waiting for a breakthrough at Wimbledon. The 2019 upset for 15-year-old five-time champion Venus Williams was the first big moment of her career, but she has only won eight total matches in the past four Wimbledon trips. And, like Sabalenka, the draw gave her some benefits: Gouf could face Sofia Kenin, who was revived in the third round – Kenin upset her in the first round two years ago – before meeting Swaite or Ribakina in the quarter final. But even at this early stage of her career, Gauff has proven that she’s not the best favorite.
Elena Rivakina
ESPN Bet Odds: +550 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 5.4%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 8 Iga Swiatek (4th round)
Rybakina is a proverb big game player. Starting with an incredible run to the 2022 Wimbledon title, she is 12-8 in the last 20 semifinals and 7-5 in the last 12 finals. She won four of her past seven against Sabalenka and split her past eight against Swiatek. Rybakina has handled many coaching dramas over the past year, suffering four upset losses against players over 80. However, her A-game remains epic.
Rybakina has the most effective serve of the top players. She has won 63% of her service points this year, earning most of the top 50 players – 16-2 at Wimbledon in the past three years. She may have to defeat Swiatek in the fourth round, but she will have to defeat Gauff in a quarter, but due to the possibility of a bet, she will play with Gauff to reach the final from the bottom half of the draw.
You only need to take a few breaks
Iga Swiatek
ESPN Bet Odds: +850 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 8.4%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 2 Coco Gauff (quarter-finals)
It was a strange year for the five-time SLAM champion. The Slam Champion fell to eighth in the WTA rankings before this week’s strong show at Bad Homburg. (Swiatek played Jessica Pegula in the final and returned to fourth place.) Swiatek lost 10 games this year than he lost in all of 2024. You’ll be surprised if her first cicadas come this year, as Rybakina and Gauff are in her way.
Jack Draper
ESPN Bet Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.9%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 6 Novak Jjokovic (quarterfinals)
Meanwhile, the 23-year-old enjoys a groundbreaking season, shaking the Indian Wells title by building up the 2024 US Open Semi-Final, reaching two other finals, reaching fourth in the world.
Meanwhile, he is always 2-3 in Wimbledon, his home slums, and 20-14 in Grass. Draper defeated Alkaraz at Queen’s Club last year and made a solid semi-final this year, but smoking hot Alexander Bablik could potentially be waiting for him in the third round, and Djokovic at the dormitory did not benefit him.
Madison Keys
ESPN Bet Odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 3.0%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
The Australian Open Champion reached a career-high fifth place in the week of her 30th birthday, becoming 11-1 in the slams this season after the French Open quarterfinals. The Keys are the expected favorites to reach the two Wimbledon quarter finals and reach the quarterfinals against Sabalenka. However, she dropped her past two grass court matches in straight sets with grass court specialists Tatijana Maria and Martera Vondorsova.
MarketApoutova Market
ESPN Bet Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.2%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 1 Aryna Sabirlaka
Vondrousova has withstanded arc of excitement quite a bit after winning Wimbledon in 2023. She was upset in the first round last year and missed most of the next seven months with injuries. She lost five of her first 11 matches in 2025, but headed Beat Keys, Diana Shnaider, Ons Jabeur and Sabalenka (on a straight set, less) towards the Grass Berlin title. Still ranked 73rd, Vondrousova drew McCartney Kessler in the first round, and from there it could have been followed by Raducanu and Sabalenka. That’s a rough draw, but unorthodox left-handed people will be difficult.
Others: The Birth of Andreeva (+1200), Qinwen Zheng (+1800), Jasmine Paolini (+2200), Jessica Pegula (+2200), Alexander of Zverev (+2500)
They love Wimbledon (and/or the Court of Grass)
Elina Svitolina
ESPN Bet Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 3.4%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (4th round)
The 30-year-old has reestablished his cruising altitude since his post-masculinity comeback in 2023, reaching the five-quarter final in his last nine slams. Subitrina is 9-2 at Wimbledon in that range. She is relatively upset at this point – over the past year she is 3-7 against top five opponents, but 39-9 against everyone else (.813 win rate) – and she is a favorite projected to reach 16 rounds against Sabalenka.
ESPN Bet Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.5%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 9 Danil Medvedev (4th round)
We’ve talked a lot about tough draws so far, but Fritz probably liked his draw quite a bit. Indeed, he features a massive Giovannim Pezzi or Peroliseed in the first round, and can introduce No. 26 Alejandro Davidevich Fokina (his semi-final opponent at Eastbourne) and Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round. However, Fritz landed in the quarter of Alexander Zverev, who is 5-0 with Zverev for the past year. If Fritz survives a tricky early test, he is in the right quarter for a massive run.
Alexander Babrik
ESPN Bet Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.7%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 4 Jack Draper (3rd round)
Clearly, his dropout from the ATP Top 50 was the awakening call of the mysterious Babrik, who has won nine of nine of his last 11 games in the clay court season. He can be hit or lose anyone on the field, and he could be a major third round obstacle for Draper, which could be the most interesting and potential week-long match in a male draw.
ESPN Bet Odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.5%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 10 Emmanavaro (3rd round)
One of the biggest doubles players of the era (seven slam doubles titles), Krejcikova is always an unpredictable figure in single draws. In the last 12 slams, she has only won 20 games, but she won seven games last year at Wimbledon Run. She has only played six games this year due to injuries and had to withdraw in Eastbourne this week due to thigh issues. There’s not much chance of her running big, but if she creates momentum, go outside.
Lorenzo Musetti
ESPN Bet Odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 3.3%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 10 Ben Shelton (4th round)
It was a quiet and wonderful 52 weeks for the 23-year-old Italian. Musetti has reached two semifinals of his past four slams (Wimbledon last year and French Open this year) and has gone above the semifinals in three straight 1000-level events. In his last five tournaments, he has only lost to Djokovic, Alkaraz or Draper. Landing in the Thinner quarter was not kind, but Musetti is at least a favorite to reach the quarterfinals.
Others: Daniil Medvedev (2023-24 semifinalist, +3300), Jelena Ostapenko (2024 Quarterist, +3300), Jiri Lehecka (+4000), Ons Javaur (2022-23 finalist, +5000), Emma Navarro (2024 Quarterist, +5000), Alex, +5000), Alex, +5000), +5000), Ekaterina Alexandrova (+5000), Hubert Hurkacz (2021 Semifinalist, +6600), Tommy Paul (2024 Quarterist, +6600), Donna Vekic (2024 Semifinist, 100-1), Tatjana Maria Grigor Dimitrov (2014 Semifinals, 100-1), Cameron Norry (2022 Semifinals, 300-1), Lulu San (2024 Quarters
I’m waiting for a surge
ESPN Bet Odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.2%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 5 Qinwen Zheng (2nd round)
In Tennis Abstract’s ELO rankings, Naomi osaka ranked 31st in the world, although it is based on performance quality, rather than points acquired in the tournament. It is clearly under her maternal standards, but it’s pretty good. However, she is only 56th in the important rankings as the slam is worth so many WTA ranking points that she can’t get a good slam draw to save her life.
In each of her last six slams, Osaka had to face a top 20 opponent by the second round. She nearly beat Sweitz at the 2024 French Open and in the next round he hit No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko at the US Open just to come across ferocious former top 10 player Karolina Mciba. She put Muchiba on top at the Australian Open but had to withdraw from the next round due to injuries. She delved deep into Paula Badosa into the third set of the French Open, but lost.
Was her Wimbledon kindly portrayed? not much. She will probably have to face No. 5 Qinwen Zheng in the second round, and although she is basically always splitting nine sets with Zheng, she lost only meeting in Grass (this was not her best surface). The breakthrough hunt will likely follow the hard court season.
Others: Emma Raducanu (+5000), Karolina Muchova (+5000), Holger Rune (+6600)
American sleeper
ESPN Bet Odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.0%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 4 Jasmine Paolini (4th round)
After taking off the tour for much of 2023, Anishimova returned to the top 40 in 2024 and surged in 2025. At least if she survives a tricky first-round matchup with Yulia Putintseva, she could be a threat in Paolini’s quarter with heavy ground strokes and above average returns.
Ben Shelton
ESPN Bet Odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: <0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 7 Lorenzom Setti (4th round)
It’s easy to think, “Big serve? It’s fine on the grass!” But that’s a bit outdated impression, with 22-year-old Shelton still not solving the surface. He was only 8-10 on the grass, and he lost to Wimbledon for the third straight time. Still, the round of the 2024 Wimbledon round suggests potential, and the hypothetical fourth matchup with Musetti (with the winner and the sinner fighting) is absolutely dynamite.
Others: Sofia Kenin (100-1), Ashlyn Kruger (100-1), Francis Tiafoe (100-1), McCartney Kessler (200-1)
Young people
ESPN Bet Odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: <0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 4 Jack Draper (4th round)
The hard-hit 19-year-old is one of the few men who actually used Janik Sinner’s three-month spring suspension, winning a 1000-level Miami title past Fritz and Djokovic. He has been 8-7 ever since (2-2 in grass), but the basics of his game are strong, and a semi-doll draw may give him a decent shot on the run to at least the fourth round.
ESPN Bet Odds: 300-1 | Tennis Abstract Odds: <0.1%
First Potential Top 10 Opponents:No. 8 Holger Rune (2nd Round)
He may not be hit hard by fellow teenagers Mensik and Joa Fonseca, but his left-handed and often excellent service returns make him tricky. And he’s oddly superior to the top players – he’s only 17-16 in 2025, but 3-1 against top 10 opponents who won for Medvedev (Australian Open), Zverev (Acapulco) and Shelton (Mallorca) on the grass. He got a chance to rune in the fourth top 10 in the second round.
Others: Diana Shnaider (+5000), Marta Kostyuk (+6600), Linda Noskova (+6600), Joao Fonseca (100-1), Gabriel Diallo (100-1), Clara Tauson (100-1)
