Welcome to NFL Thoughts, where we deeply analyze key storylines for the 2025 season. Last year, we explored the Chiefs’ chances of a three-peat—close but not quite—and evaluated how star running backs fared in new teams, which proved highly successful. This year, our focus begins with the historic 2024 rookie quarterback class.
The 2024 quarterback crop was extraordinary in both talent and depth. With Caleb Williams (1st overall to the Bears) and Jaden Daniels (2nd overall to the Commanders), the class featured two previous Heisman Trophy winners. Adding Drake Maye to the Patriots made it only the second time this century that quarterbacks were picked in the top three selections. It was also the first time since 1983 that five quarterbacks were selected in the top 10, with Michael Penix Jr. going eighth to the Falcons and JJ McCarthy joining the Vikings. Only once before, in the famed 1983 class that produced Hall of Famers like John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino, had six quarterbacks gone in the top twelve picks.
Though it’s too early to pioneer Hall of Fame or bust labels, these six rookie QBs showed a mix of highs and lows in 2024. All hold significant roles and promising potential for 2025, with solid cases that all six teams could reach the playoffs. Caleb Williams, in particular, stands out as one of the era’s most exciting talents.
Caleb Williams: Reducing sacks and improving deep throws
Bears coach Ben Johnson plans to address Williams’s high sack rates, a major drag on the team’s expected points added (EPA). The Bears lost 108 points due to Williams being sacked 68 times last season, especially between the 20-yard line and midfield where Williams alone cost the team about 52 points in sacks. Johnson highlighted from an NFL owners meeting the shift in importance of passing game EPA over traditional turnover stats in predicting wins. Williams also struggled with deep passes—completing only 22 out of 80 attempts beyond 20 yards, with many off-target throws, though he led the league in deep attempts. The Bears have upgraded their offensive line with key signings, which should better protect Williams and allow him to play more confidently. Despite a rough rookie year, Williams showed flashes of brilliance with his arm talent and mobility, and with improved coaching and protection, he could unlock his full potential in 2025.
Jaden Daniels: Fine-tuning accuracy after an exceptional rookie year
Daniels had one of the finest rookie seasons, playing with poise and veteran-like calm while showcasing his physical gifts. The main area for improvement is accuracy within the pocket, where his completion percentage ranked in the lower half of qualifying quarterbacks. After a rib injury, Daniels ran less and had some pocket passing struggles, leaving some throws incomplete when mobility was limited. Still, Daniels led the league in scrambles with 75, and the Commanders have bolstered their offensive line and kept Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator, setting Daniels up for a breakout second season.
Drake Maye: Enhancing decision-making, accuracy, and expanding running plays
Maye showed promise under tough conditions with a 47.4% success rate, ranking middle of the pack among rookies. He demonstrated impressive arm talent and running ability, scrambling 45 times for 407 yards, good for second in yards per scramble in the NFL. More designed runs could maximize his mobility, and with upgrades on the Patriots’ offensive line and receivers, Maye’s development looks bright despite some rookie mistakes like 10 interceptions.
Michael Penix Jr.: Cutting turnovers and developing play action
Penix had limited action but showed flashes of a strong arm, though he threw many passes out of target and costly interceptions in key moments. He isn’t known for scrambling but is a capable athlete, and Atlanta’s offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson, is expected to expand Penix’s play-action use. Penix has high upside if he can clean up his accuracy and turnovers.
JJ McCarthy: Mastering passes in the middle of the field
McCarthy comes from a distinguished college program but missed time recovering from a meniscus injury last season. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense emphasizes precise passes through the middle of the field, an area where McCarthy excelled in college. How O’Connell leverages McCarthy’s athleticism remains to be seen.
Bo Nix: Effective with play action and managing pressure
Nix surprised as a rookie by avoiding sacks and showing calm under pressure, ranking well in EPA per dropback. The Broncos leaned on play action heavily, which significantly boosted his efficiency in yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and sack avoidance. Nix struggled when defenses stopped the run and play action, sometimes forcing throws under pressure, but his scrambling ability and intangibles provide a solid foundation for growth.
Fan Take: This deep dive into the 2024 rookie quarterback class matters because these young QBs could reshape the NFL landscape in the coming years, bringing new excitement and competition to the league. As each player grows and adapts, their development could influence team success and potentially create future stars that NFL fans will rally behind for a decade or more.
