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Welcome to NFL Thoughts, where we take a comprehensive look at some of the key storylines for the 2025 NFL season. We began this series by reflecting on the rookie quarterback class of 2024 and forecasting what to expect from them in 2025. Today, our focus shifts to teams that struggled in 2024 and whether they can reclaim elite status following significant offseason changes in 2025.
From 2019 through 2023, the San Francisco 49ers won 54 regular season games, making them second only to the Green Bay Packers among NFC teams in that span. The 49ers also secured eight playoff victories, also second in the NFL only to the Kansas City Chiefs. Their challenge has always been how to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs from dominating.
Last year’s analysis questioned whether 2024 would mark the 49ers’ last strong push, as they were battling contract issues and injuries. Despite these hurdles, their roster remained one of the NFL’s most talented, featuring numerous stars and a returning strong defense. San Francisco boasted the league’s priciest roster thanks to aggressive spending.
However, the season unraveled. Injuries that were concerning turned into an epidemic — the 49ers suffered the most adjusted game losses according to analytics expert Aaron Schatz. They ended the season with a 6-11 record, their worst since 2018.
Can the 49ers bounce back? Their NFC West rivals, including the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks, are tough contenders. But San Francisco has embarked on a disruptive offseason with major internal improvements aimed at restoring the team to its winning ways.
Key Question for the 49ers: Will Staying Healthy Be Enough?
The season started poorly and worsened. Christian McCaffrey’s lingering Achilles issues progressed from offseason to preseason and early season concerns, causing him to miss the first eight games. Later, a knee injury in Week 13 ended his season prematurely.
Receiver Brandon Aiyuk’s contract disputes delayed his start, and after finally returning, he tore his ACL in Week 7. Trent Williams resolved his contract issues but suffered an ankle injury in Week 11, sidelining him for the rest of the season.
In 2023, McCaffrey and Aiyuk combined for 3,365 scrimmage yards and 28 touchdowns. In 2024, their collective output plummeted to 722 yards and no touchdowns.
Although it’s tempting to blame poor performance on lack of effort, the truth is more complex. McCaffrey’s injury came a year after a dominant 2023 where he led the league in scrimmage yards and touchdowns multiple times. But he has missed most of the last two seasons, and at 29 years old, questions about his durability loom.
McCaffrey remains crucial to the team, especially in the passing game. His ability to gain yards after the catch and convert key plays is unmatched compared to other running backs on the roster. This decline severely hurt the 49ers’ short passing game, which previously led the league in predicted points added per short throw, dropping to 17th last year.
Likewise, the running game faltered, falling from third to 17th in predicted points added per rush from 2023 to 2024.
Predicting recovery is difficult, but there’s no doubt McCaffrey brings a unique element to the 49ers’ passing offense that was missing in 2024.
Aiyuk is expected back eventually, though not for training camp, and Ricky Pearsall, who survived a life-threatening shooting before last season, has returned to play and made an impact. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel to Washington in the trade aftermath – a huge blow given his elite yards-after-catch ability.
Offensive line play was another weak link. Inconsistencies and injuries affected key spots, including tackles and guards, impacting both run blocking and pass protection.
Quarterback Brock Purdy, known for his high-risk style, struggled more without McCaffrey’s presence, showing a decreased completion rate, fewer touchdowns, and more interceptions compared to 2023. The lack of wide receivers creating separation also hurt, though there is hope that renewed health and contributions from key skill players will improve things.
San Francisco’s offense might shift towards a more downfield passing approach, leveraging players like George Kittle and the return of McCaffrey to open opportunities. Purdy’s mobility and potential resurgence in play-action passing could also be vital components.
49ers’ Defense: How Fast Can New Players Make an Impact?
While the 49ers were expected to suffer in the running game given injuries, their poor performance defending the run was surprising.
According to historical metrics, 2024 was one of the worst defensive run seasons for San Francisco on record—yielding high success rates, missed tackles, and yards before contact.
With only two defensive players ranking in the top 130 for run defense, the team has undergone a front-seven rebuild, drafting defensively five times early in the 2025 draft.
New additions like edge rusher Mykal Walker and defensive tackle Alfred Collins bring athleticism and run-stopping prowess. The team also rehired Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator, who previously helped build one of the league’s top defenses.
The defense now features a mixture of emerging talents alongside veterans, hoping these young players can contribute quickly to reduce pressure on the entire unit.
Outlook: Will Major Changes Equal Better Results?
The 49ers experienced significant roster turnover this offseason due partly to financial constraints and the need to revamp a faltering team.
Though the core still has veteran presence, the team appears to be leaning more on youth and recent drafts, especially on defense.
There’s uncertainty: will injured stars regain form? Can the rookies develop into impactful players? The team aims to return to their physical and dominant style from their peak years, as George Kittle emphasized before the offseason.
49ers Betting Odds (via Fanduel Sportsbook)
- Make the playoffs: -194
- Win NFC West: +165
- NFC No. 1 seed: +650
- Win NFC Championship: +900
- Win Super Bowl: +2000
Great teams find a way to transform after setbacks. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, evolved from a high-scoring squad into a balanced powerhouse by blending elite quarterback play with defensive talent identified through the draft and smart signings. The 49ers are trying to follow a similar path, but time will tell if it pays off.
Fan Take: This analysis matters because the 49ers are one of the NFL’s most storied franchises, and their ability to rebound from a tough 2024 will shape the NFC landscape in 2025. For fans, it’s a critical test of resilience and roster building — a blueprint that could influence how teams manage injuries, contracts, and rebuilding in an ultra-competitive league.
