This year’s fourth major starts Thursday with the Open Championship at the Royal Portrush.
Which golf experts do you think will win? Where do we believe our betting experts are worth it? We will break down our favourites ahead of the 2025 Open Championship.
Jump to section:
Winning Expert Choice | Betting Round Table
Expert Picks
Matt Barry
Rory McIlroy. why? I started a major to choose Rory to win career grand slams. Winning at home feels like a deserved finish.
Tory Baron
McIlroy. After the US opened, I resigned to the fact that I didn’t know anything (in honor, if I chose JJ Spaun to win everything – you didn’t). That being said, I’ll go with McIlroy to win his sixth major championship. Despite the postmaster victory, McIlroy showed a return to form at the Scotland’s Open, tied second. He collects Northern Ireland’s magic and finishes his major season with a claret jug for the first time since 2014.
Michael Collins
McIlroy. Seven of McIlroy’s past eight rounds of competitive golf have been over 68, while three rounds have been over 65. Of all players in the top 10 shots, if you turn the tee from green to green, McIlroy will be in the best form. This victory wins him with a poi.
Peter Lawrence Riddell
John Larm. Rahm is heading in the right direction for Major, but this seems like a good week for him to return to the winner’s circle. He finished in the top 15 in all three majors, and most recently the T-7 opened in the US. He is in the top 10 in three of his last four Open Championships, which seems like a good week for him to add a third major.
Andy North
McIlroy. It looks like Rory is back to Rory. He puts a lot of pressure on himself, openly growing up in the area. I think he will handle it and become our winner.
Mark Schrabach
McIlroy. After completing his career grand slam by winning the Green Jacket at the Masters in April, I wondered if Rory would coast for the rest of the season. He appears to lack many motivations and even admitted it would be difficult to crush the range for hours after winning the Augusta National. His form has been better in his last three starts. This includes the second tie from last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. He wants to erase the memory of missing out on a cut at the Royal Portrush in 2019. And getting another claret jug in his home country of Northern Ireland would be yet another feather of the Hall of Fame career.
Curtis Strange
Keegan Bradley. He played great and beat the travelers. I’m rooting for the story, and Keegan’s victory will be the captain of the Ryder Cup and hell of the Open and Ryder Cup stories.
Pair Uggs
Xander Schauffele. As for Open and Schaufere, there are some of the most consistent golfers of the event over the years. No one has ever been successful since Brooks Koepka did it at the 2018 PGA Championship, but when wind and rain picked up this week and Portrush showed more of its teeth, I think Schauffele is one of the few ready to accept it.
Bet on the round table
Odds with ESPN bets
Who is your choice to win?
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Rahm (+1200): High finishes don’t count as victory, but Rahm is one of two players with top 15 finishes in each of the past four majors (back to last year’s opening). The other is Scotty Schaeffler. He also finished seventh or more in the open in the three years of the past four years, and his T-11 finish in 2019 is not a pain. It all suggests he can secure a very good third game of the slam this week.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): No one brings more emotional weight to Royal Portrush than Roylie. It’s his house grass and after missing out on a cut in 2019, this return is personal. His 2025 form is strong and is highlighted by Augusta and his elite tee and green consistency (5th on the field). He scores high on the Link Track and has a long resume that thrives in the wind and rain (Scottish Open, Irish Open, Pebble Beach). Although he is not very accurate in driving, he balances scrambling and mental toughness. Portrush is where the story and numbers match perfectly.
Anitamarks, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): Rory looked great last week, finishing T2 in Scotland and he’s peaking at the right time. He ruled the Royal Portrush at the age of 16 and shot 61. One major advantage is to become a home town crowd and cheer for Rory. A victory here will lead him in the middle of a second career grand slam – talk about motivation!
Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?
Maldonado: John Rahm (+140).
He repeatedly proved himself with tough setups (Torrey Pines, Augusta, Muirfield Village). His trajectory, control and power work well in the wind, and his open championship efforts are difficult to ignore with three top-10 finishes in his final four starts. His 2025 PGA form is Mega Strong, worse than the Masters, PGA Championship and the T14 at the US Open.
Mark: Tyrell Hutton (+300).
Hutton is a savvy Link specialist and this tournament is a great opportunity for him to win a major. While Liv players don’t look daunting, Hutton is for a very small number of people who are consistent, especially when playing in the majors. He had a T6 at the Royal Portrush in 2019, so he knows there is what he needs to learn this course.
Gordon: Sam Burns (+550).
He became a steady presence in the majors after struggling early in his career. Burns took a 54-hole lead at the US Open and entered the second final round at last year’s Open, struggling in the final round through brutal weather conditions. I like the price more than anything else at +550.
Maldonado: Rory McIlroy Top 10 (-105).
It’s worth winning almost even money for the top 10. He returned to form involving the Scots with elite ball strike numbers with three straight top 20 finishes, including a consecutive top 10 in travelers. Aside from bleeding red at the RBC Canada open, the metrics acquired by the stroke are all present. In the home soil of the Royal Portrush, this is a high-floor bet with realistic top five upsides.
Gordon: Scotty Schaefflerau American (+240).
This is the best value you can find at Schaeffler. This is twice his price for recording a top five finish (+120). Tired of Xander Schauffele, this is my favorite Schauffer bet with two other tournament favorites (McIlroy and Rahm) from outside the US.
Who are you avoiding altogether?
Maldonado: Scotty Schefffuller.
It is purely a call for value, not a decline in talent. Paying -170 for the top 10 and winning +120 for the top 5 is risky enough to be under-rewarded, especially on tracks like Portrush. Yes, he’s still fighting while he’s losing his stroke putting, which is ridiculous, but these price ranges are bloated beyond reasonable risk. I also bet on other players as is and avoid “no Schaeffler.” If he wins, he’s fine. Like most fields, you lost. But if he isn’t, you want a full payment, not a bodied number, just because you paid to dodge one name.
Gordon: Patrick Cantrey.
His finish position was worse than his world rankings, taking part in the event in 23 of his last 24 major starts. Cantrey often works well in a typical PGA tour setup, but it rarely (if any) translates to major championship venues. The latest examples have been overlooked this year at both the PGA Championship and the US Open.
Who is your favorite long shot/value bet?
Maldonado: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+260).
This is where you exchange safety for value. His game is TaylorMade on the Link Course. Control Ball Flight, Elite Scramble and proven ability to deal with harsh weather. With a top 10 +260, the upside is real, but the top 20 gives margins to players who rarely fade on this side of the pond. If he had time to win… it’s here. I’ve seen this movie before.
Marks: Ryan Fox is a complete winner (+6000).
Fox has had a great season with two wins on the PGA Tour. He can hold it and rip it and has a great short game perfect for the linking course. He shot 66 in Scotland’s round one last week. Additionally, Fox ranked 8th on average, ranking 23rd in total strokes.
Gordon: Russell Henry is the perfect winner (+6000).
Before winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, Henry will appear off three straight top 10 finishes, including two signature events, another signature event, another signature event and another signature event. He got a stroke around the green on a 10 straight start. This is an important indicator considering how small the Royal Portrush greens will be. Henry entered Sunday, tied up to second place on a route that ended in fifth place at last year’s opening.
Do other bets stand out for you?
Maldonado: Adam Scott Top 20 (+290).
Pure value in experience and ball strike. He has played every major link venue over the past 20 years and enters in the form of Treend Tee-to-Green. In the Royal Portrush, where creativity and control are more important than force, his tempo and course management gives him a clear advantage. Short games are a concern, but at this price we bet on sharp irons and veteran familiarity. –
Gordon: Xander Schauffele Top 20 (+140).
He cashed in this market in 13 of his last 14 majors. He also never missed a cut in seven career appearances at the Open. After he finished 8th at the Scotland Open last week, I will continue to invest in major Xander top 20s, especially +140.